Member Info for Laralara1

Shorts increased by 0.20%. Interesting battle going on here .

After reading George Cosmen interview last week( someone shared here) I noted couple of things. 1- sale of NASB is not a problem and they are confident about it with decent sale price. 2- they have identified other areas to invest and grow.

3- I suspect Uk businesses will be the next to sell.

IMO Mcap is less than half the value of the NASB.

10M volume. Is it a sign of big jump or something just settling? Nothing yet about NASB sale but it seems there is something happening 🤔

When Mobico will start trading as a ftse250 stock?

Was shorts aware? I did not noticed selling today. Sp was strong and climbed up later. They can’t hold the price under £1 longer. NASB sale will boost the SP near £2 soon.

JG68

I am partially agree with you. Name change was for some purpose,But they will pay peanuts, I have doubts.

We will sell way before the actual offer comes IMO.

Mobico is selling just school bus business or also We Drive You as well? It is understandable that if they interested to keep Alsa only. Cosmen intending to enter spainish railway market and their focus will be in the Europe and Middle East. Interesting to see how things unfold in near future.

BOE - "A new question in the November survey asked firms about how they expect to respond to the increase in employer National Insurance contributions that was announced in the Budget. Firms were allowed to select more than one option. 59% of firms expect to lower profit margins, 54% expect to raise prices, 54% expect lower employment and 38% expect to pay lower wages than they otherwise would have done".

JG68, Mobico has 47,700 employees around the world. May be around 15k or less in Uk.

Stagecoach or mega bus? During the Cosmen interview I noticed that Alsa is interested in railway business. Let’s see how they manage the school buss sale. But surely 50% of the proceed will go towards investment IMO.

Fishbon,

Mobico is a very cheap stock and at unbelievable levels. Unfortunately I believe you will not be able to pop a bottle of champagne. If you really feel it’s going to be south, please feel free to short.

Any confirmation regarding entry into the ftse 250?

Not to early but it is fair to say they did take decisions on time. They anticipated well and even once jG68 wrote increase the margin and profit will come out of it. They did the same but gradually. 2025 UK and German rail business should be in profit. IMO this is also on the horizon.

FTSE ROTATIONS, INDICATIVE QUARTERLY REVIEW CHANGES:

FTSE100:

In - Alliance Witan, Games Workshop and St James’s Place

Out - B&M, Frasers and Vistry

FTSE250:

In - Deliveroo, Mobico and Oxford Nanopore Technologies

Out - Ceres Power Holdings, Close Brothers, PZ Cussons and Wood Group

NOTE: The actual review of the FTSE UK Index Series will be conducted using data as at market close on Tuesday 3rd December. Confirmed rebalance changes will be announced after market close on Wednesday 4th December

Shorts desperately want to cover. Only 5 weeks left to see progress on NASB. Investors are now in comfortable position at the moment. 185-205 Ebit not bad to dream 120-140P sp.

“UBS says investors should pick up cheap UK stocks. Upgrades the UK to a BUY rating, highlights most sectors as trading at double discounts to the US.

If we can go back to 2019, routes were the same, people’s travelling schedules were also the same as today. Hence the National express from North America to Uk coach and bus division was profitable. So I believe it was first Covid then interest rates which stop the flow. Covid grants help mobico to stand again in 2022. interest rates with poor decision on German business unfortunately push it back again. 2024 and 2025 will be the year to rise again. Steps already had been taken and fruits will follow shortly.

I believe next year Profit margin in Uk buss business will increase more than 10% . Normal as it was before covid.

May be they will decide to reduce debt organically.

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86qy500545o

Fish, no need to worry about Mobico’s future. Let the shorts finish first. This is not an everyday game. IMO 2025 will be the Mobico’s year and 2027 will be the year when it will reach close to its previous high. Cosmen did not invest for loss. They will multiply this amount to three times at least.