Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Well, who knows what the future holds.....no guarantees....but....once into 2025, then with a decent H2 there, then,yes they could be back to paying some sort of dividend ...a few "ifs and buts" before getting there though !!!!
Hi, if everything goes good for mobico does anyone think this will be a good dividend stock in the future ?.
My post was not meant to be insulting, however some would want people to post every day.
It doesn't mean we are short if we don't post and I have never said people should buy or sell.
We are using this platform to exchange ideas and research and I no one should invest based on what is said on a chatroom.
I don't know what you mean when you say you have been subject to our posts. No idea at all.
Anyway...good luck.
As for you Fish - i have been subjected to your posts f(& PaddY)or a year your post
"Fishb0n3
Posts: 446
Price: 56.00
No Opinion
RE: SP30 Apr 2024 14:02
Well is not because we are short, its because everything that was supposed to be said has been said.
We don’t have our lunch money invested here as most of the ling holders have cosiderable"
is technically correct - I stagged (made nothing from memory) this share when it floated got 200 sold 195 and kept 5 -which I still own so technically I am a "founding shareholder" I got my AGM voting Instruction card yesterday so yes i have my lunch money invested.
Can you guess why I kept 5 ?
I put a small tranche up at my limit in the last hour when the spread was very very tight - as i waited the price dropped and presumed I had missed the boat alas not - i managed to sell at above the buy price
Limit Order
Venue of Execution: CBOE Europe
Broker: Optiver VO
i had never come across Optiver so the question is who is buying for - the price has now recovered and as i type we are mid 57.75
c as in Chicago ?
so that 60p could be on the horizon ?
I have to agree, although equally, my bigger picture bearish macro outlook has certainly cost me some profits in a number of stocks in the past year or so.
Maybe they can pull off a soft landing? I am always willing to accept when I am wrong.
If they do manage to avert the type of outcomes that I have been anticipating (for a while), then I will have to find a way to recalibrate my thinking entirely. Would be preferable to being right though :)
Still plumping for the global debt pile to lead to a big event of some sort eventually. In the meantime, just going to keep trying to buy low and sell high. GLA.
LWHL
In this game I think PI make it far more difficult for ourselves than it really needs to be ... just tackle the bigger picture rather than focus on microscopic small issues that don't really matter in the big scheme of things
Over the past year or so with inflation....the answer was simple, to a certain extent ...invest in Mag7 with AI and huge cost cutting due to employee cuts, or in good dividend yields ....and invest in Fixed Income to keep your capital and get a coupon against inflation
And good old fashioned luck too. You can do all the research in the world, have patience and calm, but stuff does happen that sometimes even the best BOD do not see in time, or are powerless to overcome. Or good old fashioned fraud. Plenty of examples in the past (and probably/almost certainly in the present as well, yet to be exposed), where all of these good methodologies would not have saved you from losses.
The one thing everyone would probably agree on is not having all your eggs in one basket.
And I count shares, even in a diversified, multi sector portfolio, as one asset class.
Everyone on these chat boards will have taken some hefty losses at some point too, I would imagine.
Those still playing this game have learnt to adopt a strategy that works best for them. Which, for many of us, has not been a cheap process either :) GLA.
" why I’m looking to find something that’s genuinely undervalued. "
They are only undervalued if you have the skill and foresight to predict how things might turn out in 6-12+ months...and that is by no means easy, and you need to do your homework to know why they are undervalued now and what would be needed to turn things round .... probably a lot of external factors of which the entire market and thousands of economists etc are battling over and assessing
LG
It is very much a game of patience , with the main problem being with regards to the external factors that can affect costs and revenues ....and to a certain extent, no one knows which path those may take ..... given the economic and geo-political uncertainties etc which can affect inflation, prices,wage demands, revenue etc ....
Personally, I think the BOD and their key teams here are battling hard against all the issues thrown at them....battles that do take time, against cost rises that dont particularly give them that time..... and every step forward in one area is to some extent greeted with a corresponding step back in another ...
I think the shorters are using the share as a hedge in case inflation does in fact get more embedded and as such the consequences could be negative here , due to added costs, with difficulty raising prices ( potential loss of revenue by doing so, and being held to contracts)
Investors are keeping away for now preferring to invest in Fixed Income for safety, or where dividends give some yield protection...I suspect
If things get better externally, then I suspect investors would be happy to pay more per share for that more certain situation
... but we are clearly not there yet..and who know...it may take until 2025 to get there ...
It is "cheap" for a reason ...IMO
ATB
Hi lg
Imo you need to find out what’s causing you to lose first of all. Are you going in heavy straight away trying to make home runs for example? And then losses look unbearable when it’s starts dipping? If so why not start with a lot smaller size say an 8th or 10th of your position give if room to drop if falls a good chunk stick another 2 8ths or 10ths in that way your building a position over time and should be more weighted to the low end so it will make it easier to get with profit.if your investing in something a dip in the s.p shouldn’t really change your conviction. It will take years and a lot of experience to get really good at this but don’t give up lg
good luck whatever you do
The safer bet is to get into a world tracker ETF, however for stock picking, my lesson over the years is to stop chasing the pot of gold, instead, find things that have solid fundamentals at the right price and switch off, remember why you got on board and try not to look at things that may influence you, hold tight and the pot will most likely come to you. Trying to time the market, particularly in these conditions is a sure way to hand your money to the patient. Re the route for Mobico, personally, I believe the worst is behind us , and this is the last stop before we depart on our return journey; management failings have been recognised and addressed with a new CFO, revenues are on the up with new contracts and acquisitions, debts are to be mitigated through sale of NA company expected year end. Negotiations for price increases are ongoing, being firmed up in renewals in 25, efficiencies are being made, with advanced software being implemented amongst other things, profitability will be sure to follow. In the larger picture the macros will improve, margins will further improve, dividends will reinstated (for more than a week lol) and with a yield that is too attractive to ignore, the re rate will come. In the mean time, enjoy the ride as we await a potential buy out attempt :)
Thank you.
They do seem to find these random things out of nowhere. Like they blamed the Covid payments for years as if they were expecting to receive them forevermore.
I believe a lot of the lack of profitability last year were due to the impairments, and then the German rail contract issues, plus the driver pay rises.
With these out of the way, and fingers crossed no more impairments (but who knows what the new CFO will find) then we should be profitable going forward - and would have been previously.
I'm hoping that there were reasonable conversations about affordability before ALSA bought the new company.
the debt is also a big factor which hopefully the CFO will work to resolve with her contacts, or be able to negotiate new terms on re-finance. i do think we're over worse of it now, but still a little way to go to restore faith and company value.
Thank you both, genuinely appreciate the reasoned and rational responses (one thing I miss from this board).
I do have a stable job thankfully so I’m not depending on this money to live, but it is of considerable value.
It’s good to hear they are stable, but I do wonder why they are struggling so much to make it profitable with all the revenue growth and new contract wins. Seems that they need a CRO to analyse their pricing model, revenue is vanity and profit is sanity after all.
Just be careful trying to chase losses, mate. More likely to lose another 50% of what you have left, rather than get back to where you were, if you try and achieve it quickly. Whatever you decide, I hope it works out. GLA.
As with all trading, only trade what you can afford to lose, if you have other income and are comfortable, then sure, keep going if its right for you, but dont make yourself homeless over it, 1/3 of something is better than 1 of nothing. chin up.
in regards to mobico, their most recent results shows revenues up, and FCF is flat-ish, so its not like they are losing money hand over fist, just kind of treading water right now.
due to this, its unlikely there will be any dilution because of various reasons, 1 being the cosmens and their substantial holding.
i like most others are deep underwater here, but i believe it will come back good, but we're looking at 18 months minimum really when interest rates start coming down, before the debt is re-financed. they also bought a company on the canaries which completed yesterday, altho it was signed end last year.
if you bought at this price. it could very easily, and quickly get back to 80-90p, which would cover a large amount of your losses, but as LWHL mentions, take a breath and consider your position before jumping in.
Thank you it absolutely does.
I am currently at about a third of my original investment so that’s why I am trying to find something to enable me to recoup that. Sadly I don’t think an ETF or savings account would give me that luxury which is why I’m looking to find something that’s genuinely undervalued.
I’ve dug this grave and need to find a way out of it. As I say, I’ve been here before with this very stock which is why I thought it’s time may be coming due. As you can tell though, I’m not the best judge it seems despite trying to do all the necessary DD.
Sorry to hear that. The markets can be a tough place.
But if you cannot afford to make another investment mistake, then why not skip it altogether? Or plump for one of the global ETF's perhaps?
Some of the government bonds have a reasonable yield at the moment. Do you have any debt? Depending on the interest rates you are paying, reducing this or paying it off entirely, might be something else to consider.
Also, you do not sound like you are enjoying the stock market stuff, so another reason to perhaps take a step back for a bit.
None of the above is investment advice of course, your money, your choice, DYOR etc...but your post comes across as somewhat pained. I hope my post comes across in the sincere manner that it is intended.
I’ve not been here for a while, having been a massive bull on this stock. I went away and recovered my losses elsewhere, but then lost them all again ☹️
Clearly I’m not a good investor and so I really need some help, particularly from people who remember me from old.
I still have a soft spot for Mobico, but I’ve lost touch a little. If I buy in now then it would be almost like I’d never left as I need this to more than double to get back my original investment, but I’ve learnt that the market hates me and this is more likely to halve again. I just wanted some reassurance around potential dilution (given that this keeps reporting an operating profit, but then posts a loss before tax) where are they finding the money to cover these losses? Also with the continued revenue growth, realistically where do people think the price could head to? What’s the route to get there?
I can’t afford to make another mistake. Thanks in advance, hopefully I’ll be around a bit more again soon.
Markets reacting well to fed speech across the pond. Don't see any reason why we can't hit 60p+ tommorow. Mr Garat is probably hoping to as his on borrowed time !
Mary
I think Powell probably has sleepless nights when he sees Biden´s borrowing needs !!!
It is all a joke, if it wasn't so serious.... in the sense that they cant sell the ever increasing debt needs unless they give a decent Yield on it as a result of the inflation worries, ..
mom and pop savers now needed to buy the Bills so that they can get their pension paid back to them lol
yeah.... Middle East passed the worst , one hopes, although the Huti´s are still being a menace to shipping
ATB
FED Powell - breathless nonsense - walking a line that the markets will interpret to suit their agenda. Likely 1 / no rate cuts as has been known for a while.
Middle East tensions easing so the spike in oil is easing and the 2% target delayed. It will happen but in 2025 instead.
The to and fro is just extended. Rise to 92p (NA sale news) fall to 53p - ebb flo.
70p soon.
They're far from gone, only reduced 0.5 to 0.47.
I think the share price is hanging on what the FED Powell has to say ...later on ... shorts who may well be hedging on inflation expectations may well react to any kind of hawkish words or suggestions