Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Looks disappointing to me. Was expecting a lot more to be honest. U
Interesting how market will react
Nothing like what CB had implied, but still a big resource.
As ever, expectation management is CBs problem.
Discuss...
Presumably not enough interest in 1.1 has led to bundling Racecourse and Ascot together to reach a bigger number.
With Caveatemptors notable absence now, I was reading back over Charles’s posts over weekend as we know , he knew Colin on personal terms and would often comment on conversations he had with him.
Here’s a couple in view of this weeks estimates that have a good degree of credibility coming from CE so certainly worth a repost
Talking of percentage of in ground copper value….
CE>>>There is no agreed percentage in the contract as far as I know???Colin has said in the past that it could be up to 5%, depending on locality, capex, structure of the porphyry and amount of copper. We will score high in all categories...??I think we use 3% as a way of keeping to a conservative estimate. In simplistic terms, if we get 3% of the total value of copper in the ground, POC is $9,000 and we have 2m tonnes in total = a buy-out price of about £400M.
CE >>>…..I was present at both meetings and can confirm both conversations with CB, however I do not see any conflict between the two.??At the investor event, my recollection is that CB was testing the water with the investors that were present and he was trying to gauge the minimum price at which the majority of shareholders would be willing to sell. This value at the meeting was agreed by common consent to be 25p - 30p, but it must be stressed that this was a minimum range.??At the AGM the discussion was more along the lines of what we could expect to ask for the licence, given the open pit capex, POC, size of porphyry and commercial jurisdiction.??It is therefore my opinion that CB has clearly given a range for possible negotiations with a top end figure of 6-8% of contained copper as an opening gambit for negotiations and a clear red line has been drawn between 25p and 30p per share.??Of course this was long before Ascot was discovered, so the red line will now be at a higher level, as will be the value of our opening gambit.?
I think yer get a discount if yer tek a later slot.
Maybe CB get's 10% off for offpeak RNS releases.
Those in't know know it's coming anyroad ?
lol !
What I would like to see, for a number of reasons (and one of them is to portray the allusion of planning and corporate management, is for these RNSs to be issued like everone else's ... at 7am. Why do they always get vomited into the market at 11.34, or 2.57. I can't think of a recent RNS that couldn't have been logged and scheduled for the following morning.
Why is this an issue? We all look at our portfolio in the morning and see if there is any news to react to. Its how it is. With XTR we have to sit around (erroneously) wondering if a few sporadic large sales might mean news is coming.
Can't we just have XTR behaving like a proper listed company?!
Apologies Andrew - typing as waiting for the bus. I agree with you then. Thanks for the info re holders with 10m + shares. Very interesting. Would be curious to know the situation now. I would like to see a carefully managed release of RNS to help us getting back to 8p and beyond. And before anyone says we have to release news when we get it, I mean "marketed" and "promoted" in a way that will attract the right support. CBs communication and marketing needs to be spot on to get us to a level that he can then bargain hard for 15p+.
Andrew - I have the same fear of trading as you! I’m in it to the endgame, whatever way the cookie crumbles.
Ben
I agree with you.
That's why I said "10p is a very poor return for post Bushranger holders" and also said " A few VLTH " re millionaires comment.
About 3 Years ago LTH stated their holdings and about 7 or 8 had more than 10m shares so your 5 VLTH at 10m+ is probably about right.
All I've ever done here is add and not trade, even in the spikes, which was my biggest mistake here . Hindsight is a wonderful thing :)
That said, I'm very hopeful that the sp will go higher at some point than its previous high.
If I sold on next spike, to buy more after the usual drop, I can guarantee the sp would fall just say 10% then we would get the buy-out RNS when I'm out !
If a sale is achievable, any price achieved won't have any regard for support shown. I think you would be surprised at the number of "large" holders btw.
I can't see the asset being worth £100m or less. I'd being thinking a few multiples of that. Consequently I'd be hoping for a minimum of 20p although I expect some cash will be held back by XTR to fund future exploratory work. Also, if the deal goes as I expect some of that 20p will be in shares by the parent mining company that purchases BR plus, we will still have our shares in XTR which after the spotlight that such a deal shines on XTR could be worth two or three times more than they are worth now.
Andrew, a 10p buy out would give a MC of less than £100m - somewhere in the mid 90s fully diluted.
Therefore for anyone to become a millionaire, they would have to hold over 1% of the company currently. Yes, CB and several of the board would be millionaires but I doubt more than 5 VLTHs hold more than 1.2% each. Of the 1000s who bought into Colin's fabulous vision, put their money in and held through thick and thin, for only 5-10 to be royally rewarded is not a great payback. 15p+ imo would be just reward for the support shown.
Might not even get that.
Gixxer - I feel your frustration and pain! I also averaged down the last time we were at this level but decided to sell a few last week to put elsewhere.
Andrew - I know some LTH's will be delighted to take 10p and a large payday. Regardless, if the Bushranger project only delivers a 10p per share return, the risk to reward ratio was terrible. Let's hop CB proves the doubters wrong and that the 'time of the junior miner' really is here.
Steve
I agree that 10p is a very poor return for post Bushranger holders, but not for those who invested prior to Bushranger. Most VLTH would have an average sub 2p or even sub 1p and likely millions of shares as this was so sub 1p for a year and sub 2p for 2 years.
I can assure you there are a few VLTH here who would be millionaires at 10p buy-out :)
I havnt changed my view on buy-out value, still 15 to 20p, but I have changed my view on timescales for completion.
Been in here 8+ years Steve, and averaged down heavily off the back of an interview given by Bird when JN left. He promised openness and Transparency (no matter what). IMO we've just no seen any of that - For the most part it's been a nightmare of dilution with Bird buying his next pet project.
I'm still kicking myself that I did not escape when we hit 9p but that's on me getting carried away with talk of world class cu finds. (I think only JDAU, from the LTH's, sold there - Well played)
I count myself lucky getting 10p TBH many have not been able to average down and have lost big here.
looks like i am going to have to put my january holiday back a bit
Gixxer - Given the cost of the licence, exploration costs, 2 years of money tied up and the high risk... 10p feels like a poor return on investment. That said, I can understand why people just want to get out now. I really hope CB can turn this around and soon.
IDD Andrew, certainly based off Bird's track record here in the past.
Be interesting how hear how he mitigates, what most of us believe, the fact that we are way off his statements regarding total cu tonnage.
I'm still hopeful we will have that info by year end..
"Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale"
You may well be right
IMHO CB will keep releasing bits of news, supplemented by his usual very bullish interviews all slowly being a bit more positive and hopefully showing more progress as we crawl slowly to a buy-out in late 2023.
Well, that's my most likely outcome.
Happy to be proved wrong and we get THAT rns in next 2 months... but I doubt it.
.
" I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year."
That's about 4 weeks left then. In theory, we should get news prior to ed of the year.
In the half yearly report RNS CB stated that :
….. will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022.
AND
(For RC). The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022.
If that RNS timescales (not interview) are correct then in theory we should get some news re Ascot and RC in the next 4 weeks.
Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale.
I'd, personally, be joyous at 10p. It's been a long time coming waiting for Bird the return shareholder value.
No disrespect but He's not getting any younger, how much longer can he kick the can down the road if he wants to see a sale here....
Andrew - Completely get where you are coming from. Even us medium-term holders (shortly after Bushranger) are familiar with CB's gift for can kicking. I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year.
As a general comment, it is actually quite depressing seeing shareholder valuations for the Bushranger project plummet as this drags out and the nerves jangle. Even if Xtract can only prove up 1.5mt of contain Cu Eq at this stage, it is obvious that it will continue to grow and may end up many multiples of that. I therefore don't understand why shareholders would be happy to take 10p. What is the point in investing in juniors that are looking for big discoveries, where the odds are perhaps 100-1, if a win only pays out at 10-1?
CB has talked often about now being the time of the junior miner because the majors haven't invested enough in discovery... he better bloody prove it by getting a lot more than 10p per share for Bushranger! The stress of the wait has cost me nearly that much in vodka!!
Sounds reasonable. I can live with that. Thanks.