The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
He didn’t endorse his cycling!
I also recall that they meet up with the AA guys… I thought it was running though! Either way, it is obvious AA have all the inside info and, by return, the Xtract guys will have a good feel for whether they’d want it back and when they’ve done enough drilling to get a fair price.
Hopefully not long to wait now!
Fully agree with what you saying cardo, was simply bringing up footrot as I believe this was largely missed and I know results have been asked about recently. But then also to ‘add’ that it should not been seen as the holes were complete duffers as they were successful in what they were, reconnaissance holes.
howezap,
Absolutely not arguing the content of any RNS(s).
It is speculation of how and when that content is turned into shareholder value.
We are all here with the intention of making money, sell for more than we bought, we just have no idea of how much and when.
Just to add.
Footrot analysis reports
The core analysis from
Bushranger asssys and update RNS from 7th July stated.
>> Two exploratory drillholes completed at the Footrot prospect 7km to the southeast of Racecourse (FTDD-22-001 and FTDD-22-002) encountered weak copper mineralisation along with much disseminated to semi-massive pyrite and pyrrhotite within porphyritic intrusives, providing encouragement that the Bushranger project area contains potential for multiple porphyry copper-gold targets
Then in half year report was confirmation they were sent for assays
>> Two drill holes, for 804.4m, were completed at the Footrot Prospect, approximately 5 kilometres to the south of the Racecourse, to test a combined soil geochemical and MIMDAS anomaly. The results from these two holes will be available during the next reporting period.
Lastly from final assays of ascot 6th oct RNS in summary down bottom
>> In addition to the Ascot drilling, two exploration drill holes, FTDD-22-001 and 002 completed at the Footrot prospect, about 7km south-southeast of Racecourse, intersected lengthy intervals of alteration and iron sulphide mineralisation along with traces of copper and possible gold indicator minerals. This could suggest proximity to a mineralised porphyry - further modelling of the geophysical results here will be required.
This would certainly confirm footrot assays are back and probably not worth releasing on their individual merit. But they were still successfull in adding further credence to the geophysics that the anomaly there is mineralised.
Hey cardo you are so right of course, I think the only one that we do have a good idea of is Footrot as although both exploratory boreholes hit traces of copper they were sub optimal, that only showed they were in proximity to a mineralised porphyry :-((
What today's posts have told me is that no one, and I include myself, has a clue about what is going on with Ascot, BR, FootRot etc etc. Mine, sell who, when, how much!
CB spends an inordinate amount of time with the Roast, sometimes Sunday and Mid Week in the same week.
But nothing he says is market sensitive, it can't be. I'm sure the Roast guys are good honest fellows but their questioning is hardly forensic!
The ONLY thing to do is to wait for an RNS or two because that is when the market sensitive factual stuff gets released. And that is when we will all find out exactly what is happening and when.
Continue with the speculation, mine, sell, who, when, how, but that is what it is.
Lol
I think there's a bunch of them that go cycling together?
Can't recall when the source of that was...
I may be connecting dots that don't mean much but...
David Wood, who is the Discovery Manager for AA in Australia, has provided several skills endorsements on LinkedIn for Quinton Hills, who is our Exploration Manager/Geologist at Bushranger. Wonder how they know each other?
In the last RNS to do with Ascot final assays on 6th Oct, Colin says that the updated Racecourse mineral resource estimate is close to completion. Now I understand that the word close is open to interpretation, but you could surmise this means within a month or two. If the Racecourse mineral resource was progressing and coming in close to the targeted 2MT you can see why they have very quickly got in the additional share options for contractors/employees etc. in before actually hitting 2MT, followed by an official confirmation of the resource estimate or AA negotiation. Combined with the fact we have basically had a news blackout from CB, even when he is doing interviews and XTR is mentioned it is a loose statement about the project; like he can't elaborate. I also believe as the 2MT is a contractual trigger I believe that business would have to be sewn up with AA before news is released to the market, especially as it could create a disorderly market.
I also believe that we need to wait for the Ascot resource estimate to be completed before presenting to AA, even if we already have 2MT/new resource estimate from Racecourse alone. I think CB would want the Ascot resource estimate completed before going to AA as it would be beneficial to overall value. The Ascot model was being worked on in October and then followed by a resource estimate as per 6th October RNS. But as I have said previously, I believe CB cannot release the Racecourse resource estimate on its own, which I believe to be finished, to the market yet due to its sensitivity to events. Therefore, I think we are maybe waiting for the Ascot resource estimate to be finished at present.
I could be completely wrong but hopefully not long now!!
I was musing yesterday evening (a nice bottle, like minded company - ie frustrated shareholders - and a log fire to avoid the horrors of 'Children in Need') about Wall Street (the film, Gordon Gekko etc) and thinking how we need people on the ground checking out who is turning up to who's office, arranging resteraunt tables next to bevvied up execs from participating players in our intriguing situation so we can pick up on the gossip, boasts, etc. Then realised all the fun stuff is probably done on Zoom now, not in person.
Re Gixxers last post, we also discussed (e.g.) AA buying ProspectOre along with the core of the exploration team. I imagine they are largely Aussie, and not necessarily wanting to up sticks and go to Mozambique or wherever to follow the next Colin project. Makes sense to stay with the Bushranger project, unless their share options turn out so well they choose a life of barbies on the beach instead.
We do already have a conceptual model it just needs to be updated with the latest JORC by the independent consultants, Optimal Mining Solutions ( if they use same consultants as before)
ZM to work out the economics, they need to know the strip ratio which is just one but an important factor. So once this is determined a pit design is relatively simple as slope angle will be known. Remember this is only a concept. The actual mine planning and engineering stage will only be finalised once there is a proven mineral reserve.
I too, listened again to the podcast regarding the begging bowl comment. Could have simply been Colin just bigging up the fact ‘proudly’ that they haven’t, in front of other CEO’s
Good point G600. Also, a reason for Colin not declaring that negotiations are in progress, may be that he wants to avoid short term speculators trading the shares should this news be released, and potentially make a lot of money in a short period of time. Maybe he has the interests of us LTHs at heart, and would prefer to reveal a finalised deal in its entirely. That way LTHs only benefit.
I'd say there's has to be a fair level of detail to highlight the process/costs involved. Critical to determining an NPV, no? As I recall Bird stated AA no longer have geo's/Engineers skilled in such areas as they now just buy out small miners. The whole point of them selling the project and have someone else to the graft.
If I were buying I want to see all the data laid out 'on a plate' for both parties it would make for a faster sale process.
Highlighting Bird's comments WRT a lack of skilled recourse kept in house, it does make one wonder if the current contract would be scrapped and a deal made whereby AA expect the geo's would continue to work. You would Imagine, should AA buy BR, they would undertake a large drilling programme to fully understand what is in ground at BR. Who better to do that than the Chaps who've been involved over the past few years...
I haven't relistened, but my question for that is whether a detailed design of an open or underground pit is anything other than including the relevant costs of a likely design in order to demonstrate the economics of mining the resource. I would imagine a buyer would design their own mining operation from the ground up (or more correctly down) having appraised the notional outline open pit and costs? So the level of detail of what XTR would present on the design of a pit would be far from detailed?
Just relistened to the latest podcast and picked up on this comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit'
Am I missing something or was this supposed to be the plan anyway? - I'd assumed, based on company comments, that the geo's would already be well into this? - They can hardly declare a DtM without this?! If they've not started this, which I imagine will be quite time consuming, it would appear we are still a long way off entering meaningful sale negations.
Obviously the current contract could become moot if AA are keen enough.
WRT the 'beggin bowl' comment, hearing it second time around Bird could have just been highlighting it as fact and not as a heads up for an impending cash call. The SP is anyway so deflated it would be horrendous, we'd be back @2p
"In whose interest is it to keep AA's interest (if it exists) from shareholders during such a period"
That was also my thinking. I may be wrong, but I don't think there is a legal obligation to keep silent as other companies have declared before that other parties could be interested in buying out the co.
The theory that no news is good news may well be true and negotiations could be going on behind the scenes, but the less palatable alterative view is that AA or anyone else, wants more to be proven up ot a higher POC to consider making an offer so nothing is happening.
I think it is a much simpler explanation. Colin is waiting for the copper price to rise before announcing anything. When you have an asset like BR, with an NPV that is heavily dependent on copper price, it doesn't make sense to sell it now when the copper price trajectory is upwards,
In whose interest is it to keep AA's interest (if it exists) from shareholders during such a period. Even a period of negotiations. Its not a competitive situation until after the buy back option has been explored and put aside. So why the radio silence (if indeed this is the case).
If it goes to an expert for a valuation, then there will also be a process for identifying experts, both parties agreeing who to commission, and then for the expert to start their work. I suspect the lead time would be weeks, not days.
Hopefully the lack of news is because the process with AA has begun. And, hopefully, everyone wants this done before Christmas!
Pulled from Gixxer posting history is what CB said in the ‘removed’ portion at end of the shareholder presentation
Gixxer 29 Jun 2022 10:17??>>'If they can write to us and and say we wanna exercise our option and this is the value. We then have 10days to accept that, sorry 5 days. if we don;t accept it that's them now thrown their hat in the ring. And if we don't accept it we gotta go to a expert opinion. That expert I think he's got about 6 days, not a long time (that's another one of my worries that it might take forever) the expert opinion has gotta say what he thinks the value is. Now that's scary as well cause lets face it the capital is massive $1.5/2e9.' Goes on about the ValMin method.......??'Then there's that decision to mine, and you know I thought about that one (mumbles a bit) We'll do a couple of studies and we'll say to Anglo we've started to mine then they've got 10days to decide whether they want it. Then we give Anglo a value and they've got 10 days to say they don't accept the valve. then it's the same process again experts....'
Might be the case that AA are carrying out their due diligence on the info provided and that might take a while before any negotiation?
"He also said the number crunching takes around 10 days."
Which takes us to the next question... how long would a negotiation with AA take?
He also said the number crunching takes around 10 days.
Howay the mattyashy