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I don't think "idiot" describes CB but more so "chancer". He's a risk taker who wants the prize of "discovery"
I think its a bit too early to give any verdict on Bushranger and lump it with Moz Gold, Kalengwa or Matrix (remember that must have licence !)
Bushranger COULD still be CB's greatest career discovery and he may secure his legacy with it. Or if things don't turn out as he has implied many times, and is still doing so, then it may be the thing that tarnishes his reputation forever as he leaves the stage .
He will have made his mark no matter what happens, but will his legacy be like Churchill or like Liz Truss :)
BTW, I did predict this back when he bought BR. Its always the same, he gets excited jumps on a new project and there's a flurry of news/excitement from Bird. Then it fades as he gets bored, he buys another pet project and the pattern continues...
Bird not an idiot, not so sure on that. JN bought Manica, it's taken Bird 5 years to get it up and running with so many mistakes along the way, the clueless alluvial contractors he bought in early on, sued by our partners and the diamond miners we gave, 500k to?, that walked away.
Then there's 'company making' assests he bought, at huge cost/dilution to shareholders, along the way have turned out to be useless.
We will shortly have an indication of the true worth of the BR project however, based on his recent comments it's not close to being what we were led to believe.
I still think there's some profit here but not if he's planning on another spending spree.
james
CB did mention 85kg in one interview so I am expecting 75kg at full production. do think we will be announcing FB income before end of the year albeit not a massive amount for reasons you have stated. But with alluvial + small HR enough to cover normal G and A.
I just don't believe there will be a need for a raise unless CB wants to go on another treasure hunt. If he does I think the market will give its verdict - unless we get some v good Bushranger news at the same time .
Hi Andrew
I don’t think we will hit 100kg either but I’d expect us to be at 70kg or there about, as they should be running the higher grade ore by then so income should be nicely ramping up.
CB is certainly not an idiot but at the same time if there isn’t income from FB he might not have a choice than to go cap in hand to the market. FB is a share of net operating income, if the operating costs are greater than gold generated our share would be 0 (different to the empress royalty agreement). Obviously XTR could be receiving income from FB already but I find it strange that XTR wouldn’t have announced this even if it wasn’t material.
Hopefully FB hits serious production before year end and we don’t need to find out if a raise is required or not
Cheers
James
James
Thanks for that.
Yes I do remember CB saying that the better ore will be process later so you may well be right. But I still don't think we will hit 100kg by end of the year as CB is always optimistic.
I don't believe there will be a raise as we will have alot more income soon even if its not as much as we were led to believe. I also think the message it send will be very bad and I'm hoping CB is not an idiot to do something as silly as that esp when we don't need to.
As James has said they are, or were running the low grade peripheral stuff through to bed in the plant. This was found to be in the overburden that was stripped and not included in the ore reserve. So is all free anyway and said to be ideal for purpose. The output will increase when the hard rock starts being processed when all plant mods and tweaks have been made is my understanding too.
Hi Andrew
My understanding is they are running low grade ore through the plant at the moment to jam any holes (not the technical term), once they are satisfied that the plant is operating efficiently then the better stuff will be run through which should get us to this 100kg a month or so. Not to look an idiot for the 67th time believing CB deadlines but until otherwise advised I think we will still hit commercial production by year end “(Commercial production is defined in the Collaboration Agreement as a being installation of a processing plant with a throughput capacity of not less than 29,000 tonnes per month (being 70% of the planned 42,000 tonnes per month throughput).
If they don’t start generating cash from FB shortly I think they will be back to the market with their “begging bowl” just for working capital purposes which would be very frustrating.
Cheers
James
I agree entirely. If there are some tasty projects ready for the taking to cement the development of XTR into the future then there is a clear way to become in a position to take advantage of them. ie complete the sale of Bushranger and retain some of the proceeds. That is how a business is supposed to work: make profits, invest some of the profits, end result bigger and more successful operation for the future.
If I saw a sale of Bushranger with all proceeds handed away to shareholders leaving the company strapped for development cash and then asking shareholders for money back in the form of a diluting raise I would wonder whether any strategic thinking was taking place and likely make my exit..
Agree with you Andrew. The worrying thing I took from the mid week Roast was that Projects in Zambia were mentioned when Colin spoke about XTR - this implies they are looking at buying something there. Depending on the timing of negotiations there (and these may not be in Colin’s control) XTR may need to fund these before the BR sale. If this is the case, let’s hope there is sufficient money in the Treasury from FB etc to fund this, without a raise.
One bit of useful info that came out of the interview yesterday was FB production. CB said it was now at 30kg a month. At the AGM he said we started at 20kg and still talked about 100kg as the full production income amount. So at that rate of increase (10kg over last 2 full months) it may take us sometime to get to CB’s reported 100kg.
Empress Royalty have stated that we will be at COMMERCIAL production by end of the year (NOT FULL production.
We should have a better idea after commercial production has been confirmed by end of the year and then know what the actual Kg per month is.
I can’t believe we are going to increase production by 70kg a month in less than 2 months after increasing it by 10kg in the last 2 months.
I suspect full production won’t be 100kg as CB stated and we wont reach full production until Q2 2023.
The problem with a raise is the message it sends after all CB has said about significant FB income and no P3 drilling (if that is what money from a raise was used for).
Why would we raise IF substantial FB income was coming very soon?
I would not be happy with a raise before the sale of Bushranger.
Xtract need to get a few existing (some very late) projects properly over the line before getting distracted with something new. They need to build a reputation for delivering if they want the market to take them seriously and become more than another junior dreamer.
For sure, start researching new investments but keep the begging bowl locked away until Bushranger is sold and Xtract has proved its' mettle (excuse the pun).
Another raise shouldn’t be a concern, if it’s timed right and is a genuine growth opportunity ie a substantial increase in returns from a phase 3 drill programme at RC or drilling for deep sulphides and pit extensions at Eureka. Further discovery potential at Fairbride and during next year will design plant additions, which will allow treatment of all mineralisation gold types found in the area.
Even the couple of, it sounds like mid sized operations they are looking at in Zambia. The aim is to identify deposits of 1-5 years production capability in a safe jurisdiction at a rate of about 50,000 tonnes per year, that are near to production and not too cash front end heavy and importantly nearby to offsite processing facilities. These are basically a license to print money.
If the conditions are right for a BR sale and the known geological understanding of other assets can be exploited, xtract could be a serious contender up there with jubilee with 3-400 million market cap in a couple or three years. Xtract have a solid foundation now, a sensible strategy for growth with good assets now across the board and will push to grow the company.
Colin stepped down from jubilee as he felt his skills were more suited to companies less advanced in their development. He must be setting his sights toward matching jubilee, he once commented he could see xtract having a 400million market cap. Who knows?
"OK - not official yet, but didn't he state in an interview that the anomalies north of RC would 'get us to the 2MT'? -
I'm sure you are correct Gixxer. I was just giving CB the chance to confirm the official figures before making a definitive statement. I'm not expecting RC to be 2mt
As or the "large buys" I just think that's FOMO and some getting ready for possible good news before end of the year.
Volume is still low and if there was any leaks then I would expect the volume to be much much higher with many very big buys with sp nearer 6p then 3p
>>For the record, I don't expect there to be a P3 campaign or another acquisition, and I still think a major will buy out Bushranger with what we have now.
I hope so in the near term, it's been a fecking baptism of fire here that's for sure.
The recent large buys of late would suggest there's something going on the background (XTR has always been a leaky ship WRT news). I'd initially thought it was the HR assets pumping out big numbers but based on his comment in the interview (I think he said a total of 35kg last month) it appears we are still a way off the 90-110kg Bird has predicted.
>>Tbf, we can't yet say CB was wrong with 2mt RC comment until the amount has been confirmed. Never know, it may be 2mt at RC...but I'm not expecting it to be !
OK - not official yet, but didn't he state in an interview that the anomalies north of RC would 'get us to the 2MT'? - apologies if that's wrong I'm not paying as much attention to XTR as I used to.
My 2 Red flags would be another drilling campaign and another acquisition before Bushranger is sold.
The "begging bowl" comment was also a slight concern. Maybe nothing in it though.
There may well be some who will try and see a p3 drill campaign or another acquisition as a positive thing, but I bet the market would not see it that way -- not after all CB has said re what we have at Bushranger ie Tier 1, one of biggest discoveries in that area etc etc
I'm assuming and hoping CB would have not been such an idiot to keep building all this up, even very recently, unless he was sure of what we had and that AA or someone else was interested.
Tbf, we can't yet say CB was wrong with 2mt RC comment until the amount has been confirmed. Never know, it may be 2mt at RC...but I'm not expecting it to be !
For the record, I don't expect there to be a P3 campaign or another acquisition, and I still think a major will buy out Bushranger with what we have now..
Have you got a link to that footage Gixxer?
The 'not been out with the begging bowl' statement is also of concern, another raise to pay for the purchase of another one of his 'company makers' or a P3 after all.
If it is I just hope he does his DD for once and it's not a mine owned by some local gangster/ A company using diamond plant to run alluvials or an IOCG that turns out to be a pile of mud....
>>It would also give the impression that AA or another major are not interested with what we currently have now, as the intention, just a few months ago, was to sell what we had.
Agreed, he's already backtracked on the 2MT statement at RC. I rewatched the footage today, it's no misunderstanding, he highlights RC when he makes the comment.
Shaun day said something that just compounded the drive for copper in the near future.
The fact is the world needs metals, and if you believe in the electrification, your safest bet is in copper as you are not betting on what the next technology will be in batteries, you are betting on the fact you need to conduct the electricity.
So even if we see Hydrogen cell vehicles having a massive upsurge in demand sooner than expected, these are still driven by electric motors and would no doubt carry some level of battery storage too.
There is no getting away from the need for copper even if fully electric cars turn out to be just a stop gap if miraculously they could convert all infrastructure to hydrogen refuelling stations in a few years.
Hi Butlerman
If Q4 revenue is much improved, better than Q3 it would potentially coincide with a conclusion to AA’s interest in the project. So no definitive decision on what to do next will happen until then. Even if they have a good idea of their intent already.
So if not until then, then potentially before, the resource statements would be delivered which the market will have waited for to de-risk. So to coincide with when commodities turn bullish it will be difficult to see the market cap stagnate with the kind of news due that will significantly improve the fundamentals of the company.
>>>Copper futures fell below $3.8 per pound from the five-month high of $4 hit on November 11th, pressured by concerns of lower demand. Data from top consumer China showed that industrial production slowed more than expected in October, while house prices decline for the sixth consecutive month and further emphasized low demand for the country's highly indebted property developers. Still, copper prices remain 11% higher since the start of November as looming supply concerns limited the retreat.<<<
We clearly haven’t seen that tipping point just yet. But when it does, if there is an opportunity to exit at 10-15p how many ‘investors’ will want to I wonder?
Just keep an open mind that’s all.
The problem with a phase 3 drilling prog is that CB has explicitly stated that we wont be doing that when he said (paraphrase) "Shareholders wouldn't thank me for doing another round of drilling"
It would also give the impression that AA or another major are not interested with what we currently have now, as the intention, just a few months ago, was to sell what we had.
Because of this, I don't think we will be doing anymore drilling. If CB now announces that we are, I don't think the market will like that and will draw its own conclusions why we are.
Howzap, I wouldn’t mind waiting to prove the resources up further if the share price was 6-7p now, but I would be worried about it falling further in the meantime whilst waiting for further exploration. So I’d really like to see the share price recover to 6p+ in the short term, with the MRE or African Gold results. I’ve been underwater for a while now, and would to like to see my original investment achieved, before I was asked to wait several months longer.