Tbh I'm not that bothered, within reason, about exact tonnage re long term situation. Yes, a low tonnage short term would mean CB has been deliberately deceptive after all his comments and the buy-out would be much less than he has implied (IMHO).
However, assuming CB is not a charlatan or a complete idiot, it will be above 1mt (at very least) and that will have value, so I would not sell but wait until the buy-out was agreed, which will be at a premium to SP. So best SP would be at buy-out price so dont sell before then is my approach.
If no major thinks its economical at whatever tonnage we get (above 1mt), then I would just wait, as I think the increasing copper price will, at some point, make whatever we have very economical in time. That's in the very unlikely event it isnt economical after resource model is declared.
If that was the case, again, just wait for the buy-out (now at a much later date than expected) which again should be at premium to SP.
Due to FB income we have optionality and that includes the option of just waiting for copper price to make the resource economical (IF it isnt after model but that is very unlikely). Similar to land banking an asset waiting for the market to make the resource more valuable.
A rather a long winded answer to your question.
In short, don't sell, but wait a bit for the buy-out offer or (if we have to) wait a bit longer for copper price to rise and for the much later buy-out.
That's going to be my approach - which may well prove to be the completely wrong approach !
" if Colin releases some excellent news or we enter negotiations. I would hazard a guess we have more than 35 trades and more than 7 large ish buys."
Yes, and all those SH who would love to buy more now but don't currently have the money available - would suddenly find the money...and quickly :)
Good luck to anyone who tries to time the market in AIM. Bigger balls than me.
I didn’t sell any on the Jan 2021 spike or in the recent 7p+ rise. If I had been clever I could have traded this and made over £500K and ended up with same number of shares! Silly me.
I don’t buy any of the Tech analysis nonsense (not in small caps anyway) or “research will tell you when to sell” , its all random as no one knows when big news will drop.
One thing I can say with certainty, if I did sell a large % of my holding on the next spike, we would get an RNS a day later confirming sale to a major for $500M !!
MY approach? Hold and pray ??
Market environment has to have contributed in some way to the drop. I think its nonsense for anyone to claim that all the drop is down to just one thing ie World Events or all down to CB.
Its a combination of many things but no one knows, despite some claiming to, what the split is.
That IMHO of course !
The “labelled a basher” comment – was not directed at any individual but a general comment as I’ve seen that approach many times from a number of posters over the years.
The mischaracterisation comment was directed at you. In our discussion yesterday I clearly stated, many times, that the drop could have been mostly or even all down to world events. I just didn’t know what the split was - some said it was obviously all done to world events. You were mischaracterizing my view by claiming that I was saying that world events had very little or nothing to do with the drop.
I was actually making the same point Howzap has just made today.
“There has no doubt been any number of other factors that have contributed to the downturn in Xtract share price over last 6 months.”
But what split that took (90/10 50/50 10/90) I had no idea and now one does.
BTW your point “I am sure the response will be 'no one invests based on forums', but that simply isn't true. “
Of course they do. All the time, but my view would be that f they do then they get what they deserve. Honest posters are often wrong with their view!
" I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him."
Careful Iceberg. With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher :)
Yes agreed with all your post. Very balanced and reasonable points.
Lets hope no one just focuses only on your negative points and tries to completely mischaracterise what you are saying :)
You may be right that some would be p off even at 10p. I guess it depends on your average and number of shares you hold.
My average is 2.3p and as you know I hold in the teens of millions of shares . so I would not be unhappy at 10p but it wouldnt be what CB implied - nothing like after the "If they offered me 10p and I'll tell them where to stick it" comment
Tbf Spaceman makes Steve 4077 seem like a basher. Spaceman was something else!
If he was here now and someone said they thought the buy-out would be 30p by q1 - he would be saying they are deramping as it will obviously be 50p min :)
And then he'd try and get the poster banned ....!
He was a comedy character .
"It going to be pretty embarrassing for him if/when he finally has to admit he's led the market astray with regards to 2Mt @RC"
Will it be embarrassing though IF we declare 1.4mt to 1.6Mt but not 2mt ? Yes CB would have been deliberately deceptive (being kind there) but that resource should see a buyout of 10p min.
Who will be that bothered about previous comment if sp it 10P?
I would think that the only people who would be bothered would be those that sold out well below 10p
Interesting comments about those who have agendas and whose posts are motivated as such
Having been here, like many LTH’s for years, we’ve seen many posters come and go over the years. The transparent rampers and bashers are easy to spot as their agenda is not hidden. The ones that are harder to spot are the ones who tend to be more subtle.
The subtle ramper will try and discredit anyone who tries to express any real concern or identify risk. The counter narrative will usually be that “they are obviously trying to get a lower entry point“
I think it would be wrong if anyone tried to imply that AndyMillsy or Iceberg were a basher, just because they have said, on more than one occasion, that they think CBs comms is poor and so is his expectation management.
That said, maybe for some a “basher” is someone who makes any negative comment. After all, that wont help them get the sp up and help him or her ameliorate their loses if they had started investing here at a much higher sp prior to the drop.
I actually think there is a real chance that CB has been deliberately deceptive with many of his comments over the last year and that we wont be getting anything like the buy out SP he has implied. I may be wrong and I hope I am.
.But I also think this has a very good chance of going over 10p (at least) within a year, either from buy-out or a spike, so that would make it a very good investment at current sp.
I appreciate that view doesn’t fall nicely into the category of basher or ramper. It wasn’t supposed to. It was just my honest opinion.
And if my opinion, or anyone else’s posts here are motivating someone to buy or sell – then they are a complete idiot.
"What you are saying in effect is that while the world economy is crashing down all around us and everyone else is suffering huge share price falls, we would have been fine if only CB had better communication skills."
I'm surprised you would come to that conclusion after reading my posts.
I'm not saying that at all !
"Of course world events are playing a big role here... but the markets negative perception of XTR has magnified the SP drop"
Its a matter of opinion if its 10/90 or 90/10 re world events v mismanagement of expectations .
I just give more allowance than some for the possibility of mismanagement of expectations.
"Yes, but last time it happened was there the same level of massive economic disruption? Was copper down 30%, was the whole index down 30%, were all the other small-cap miners crashing? Was there inflation, high energy prices, etc.?"
External factors were fine, but CB's mismanagement of expectations v results was the reason for same type of drop. Actually, it was worse than now, as I remember the SP falling from 2.5p to 0.7p after poor results against forward guidance. I just bought more :)
To explain again, I'm not saying that that is 100% why its happened now, but maybe that COULD be playing a much bigger part than some think.
"Do you really believe that all of the above is NOT having a massive impact on XTR?"
I think you have missed my point.
I'm not saying that isnt the reason for the drop, it may well be in some part, or large part or even the whole reason, but there seems complete dismissal that there is no other reason for the drop.
LTHs have seen this type of drop before without any external reasons - and we know why it happened.
I honestly cant say with 100% certainty why the drop has happened, and I don't think anyone else can.
I can understand that many may think that world events are responsible for the down turn here – and they may well might, be but many LTH have had similar experiences here before and that was due to results not matching CB’s overly optimistic narrative. Maybe some think the same thing COULD be about to happen again so have sold?
It’s interesting that many who have repeatedly acknowledged CBs ability to be overly optimistic, then ignore their own view and decide that the reason for the drop is not down to that which they have already acknowledged, but another reason/s outside CB’s control.
To be clear - I’m not saying the drop is not down to external forces outside CB’s control – it may well be, but the alternative view - that it could be down to CB’s own mismanagement of expectations, (something which we all know he’s done before), is a view that seems to be dismissed by many.
Even by those that have repeatedly acknowledged that he does this.
To avoid misunderstanding, I’m 85% certain that things will turn out OK here. That appears to be much more pessimistic then some who have had less knowledge of CB’s history - or those that choose to ignore it :)
I'm not too sure that the frustrations are down to SH wanting to cash out quickly - and now finding that they have to wait longer.
I think it maybe down to the fact that the direction and process keeps changing. One minute its just a few holes in ascot to give an indication, with RC model soon - then its phase 3 + areas outside ascot and RC.
The statement "It wont be a death by a thousand lashes" has not aged well :) That's exactly what is happening.
And where's the interim report we were promised months ago in an RNS? Is that down to poor market conditions?
I suspect CB will be blaming many issues on "Poor market conditions" like he did previously with covid.
If CB has all this under control and all this is a part of a grand plan involving delaying tactics re sale, then he is playing a blinder and got a lot of people fooled !
On balance, I still expect this to turn out OK, in the end, but CB does make life hard for himself with his "shoot from the hip" comments.
I hope I'm wrong, and I maybe, but this is starting to look more likely that the results from phase 1 and 2 have not met CBs implications.
Phase 3 drilling and now including IP outside the Ascot and Racecourse, does seem an attempt to try and find more tonnage to justify his previous comments.
I'm not expecting the RC model to be released for some time.
Less than 3 weeks to the AGM. CB may have a few questions to answer and some clarity required.
I think he may get a harder time there than with the Zak Mir interviews.....
"Now is it because we have a cadia? Or we have to keep looking for more to make this actually sellable?"
All discussions lead back to this question IMHO. This is the $64,000 question - or should that be $640M question:)
When the model and resource is declared, and after all CB has said, he is going to look a bit silly (yes that is an understatement!) if the Cu tonnage is say, less than 1.3Mt CuEQ.
That said, some may take the view that as we know CB is always optimistic we shoudnt be surprised if his previous implications of 2mt was, as ever, just him being optimistic.
Therefore, why be so critical of CB doing something that we know he always does?
I accept that maybe not everyone would see it that way!
Lets hope that the only surprise here is that CB has under promised and over delivered..for once!