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The line that BR could be uneconomic is a false one that needs to be put to bed. The question is really “at what price of copper does BR become economic?”. We know from earlier modelling that RC pays back the initial capex and produces >$200m NPV at $5/lb. That was based on the original JORC’d resource. We now know that the high grade crown contains more copper-equivalent material than that, at least another 0.1Mt worth >$1bn revenue - again at $5/lb. That’s before you consider the remaining low grade 0.5Mt that would be mined from year 11 onwards. So, very clearly, BR will produce a positive NPV at $5/lb - possibly a very attractive one. The question is then, what about at lower prices? And will the economics be sufficient to attract a buyer?
AIM exploration/mining is on the floor and there are too many companies that will fail. I don't think XTR will fail and from the research I've done lately could still be massive. I am not invested here yet due to having big positions in 2 other AIM Explorer's who like XTR are well undervalued. Yes, the 1.1 million is disappointing, your CEO was too optimistic and 2 million would probably have seen XTR SP go through the roof but you still have some very good assets and copper IMO is going to be in demand for at least a decade or more.
>>>Howezap, My fear is that the final set of results from Ascot showed a certain lack of copper for a proposed copper mine <<
Hi Eastern investor you’ve got to remember Ascot is relatively untested but does have more precious metals than RC with decent grade. Copper is extensive, and over a km of strike in 3 mineralised zones but it will be the gold that will have significant positive economic benefits for Ascot. It’s a shame they could not have drilled a couple or three more holes in phase 2 to extend shallower intersections of gold.
A second pit at Ascot will not have to carry the CapEx for plant and infrastructure as RC could cover that initial stage.
Due to the different mineralisation types between the two deposits I’m guessing that grade control and stockpiling of ore type and grade will be important if both mines were to share a central processing plant. Will have to look into that.
The Podcast being disappointing is a gross understatement. I’d go so far as to say it continues to add to the deceit and delusion. “Bushranger has achieved everything we wanted it to achieve and more Zak”. The guy completely lacks any sense of integrity or is completely deluded as to the extend he has been stringing investors along with previous comments.
Prickly, this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWwCu3DnatU
I know it's against Colin's religion but now manica is finally producing would it not restore credibility and the sp if xtr was a dividend paying company say 5% . Or am I delusioned fantasist.
"...and why the situation has been allowed to drift without any indication that mining prospects were not nearly as good as we had anticipated"
Because thats classic "Colin keeping not so good news back". He would have known we were barely reaching 1mT but was probably hoping Ascot would have got us nearer. Many feel totally let down here.
Well said prickly.
I also contacted the Roast boys to see if this would be something they could organise. I know we've had one in the past but I can't recall how the company went about it?!
At this meeting CB gave a fine campaign style speech about the progress at Bushranger . The general impression was that the 2mt threshold which should trigger the Buyout option had either been reached or was about to be. There was much talk of what price BR should sell for and the figure of 25p or 5 times the current market cap was bandied about.
I like Colin and have met him several times. I generally consider him to be a little enthusiastic at times but fundamentally honest, So the revelation that we are woefully short of the 2mt target was a shock to me and a huge disappointment . It clearly was to everyone else here. This massive shortfall has undoubtedly damaged his credibility and cost a lot of investors a lot of money. I agree with the suggestion that he should set up a Q & A session along with his team at BR to explain what has happened and why the situation has been allowed to drift without any indication that mining prospects were not nearly as good as we had anticipated. His podcast was also disappointing . I think he owes us a better explanation.
I guess if it uneconomical and it has no alternative use its value is roughly zero. So I think that has to be the starting point.
ReasonMan: "The value of any other supposed asset seems too difficult to quantify with any accuracy."
If that is the case how can anyone ever be expected to put a price on a mining resource. A lot of work is going into this very question I expect, from both sides of the table I would imagine/hope.
I sold back in March after seeing the CB interview where he used the words 'wish' and 'dream' to describe his expectations for the 2mt existing. It was/is a high-risk investment, and it is part of CB's job to be a salesman and add a positive spin; and unsurprisingly he didn't/doesn't know what lies beneath much better than anyone else. I might re-invest, but I would want reassurance of XTR's profitability based on the future performance of its existing revenue-earning assets, with central overheads deducted, and by how much. And then see what that looks like versus the current £20m+ market value. The value of any other supposed asset seems too difficult to quantify with any accuracy.
Simply read this weeks posts and listen to the podcast.
Hi guys.. new in here. Been in glr since 2016 seen it climb 11p to only crash, so i have a little insight on CB and my personal opinion on him/his ways ill keep to myself... by the way still holding glr as its got serious potential now ( we hope).
Can someone kindly brief me on going on here, thinking to jump in. Thanks in advance.
Xtract is not a one trick pony, even if that pony is considered a bit lame now by some ‘investors’ The other current assets can be further developed to increase mineral reserves and at fairbride to increase production capability too. Also deep drilling at Eureka to follow up with an exploration phase on the very high grade earlier drills to test for the sulphides that could prove to be a major discovery, maybe after a conclusion to BR when more time, resources and focus can be concentrated there.
That doesn't really wash howzap.
Most on here if honest would accept that if Bushranger wasn't in the portfolio, the sp would be considerably lower than even the current low price.
Dear Doctor Brown,
Unless you're one of them Doctors what is good at finding Copper - or Gold - down 'oles, I'm not bothered what you think.
If you're not a Copper Doctor, you should assume I'll get back to you to my usual standards of Imminently.
Yours Hypefully,
The one and only Mr Colin Bird
Howezap, My fear is that the final set of results from Ascot showed a certain lack of copper for a proposed copper mine.
Xtract is not a one trick pony, even if that pony is considered a bit lame now by some ‘investors’ The other current assets can be further developed to increase mineral reserves and at fairbride to increase production capability too. Also deep drilling at Eureka to follow up with an exploration phase on the very high grade earlier drills to test for the sulphides that could prove to be a major discovery, maybe after a conclusion to BR when more time, resources and focus can be concentrated there. Well overdue on an update as to wether they have started up again flogging the ore for processing which was priority to get cash generated first.
Lots elsewhere going on I hope, but back to Ascot and the modelling due , to show the pit extension to the S/SW from the ‘saddle’ between RC and Ascot.
I dont have much doubt this will be viable at future, higher copper prices and considering it will not be mined until after RC has paid back all CapEx min 6 years time and dependent on when after that, due to the engineering and or economics involved in extending the pit.
This could be so big and if the potential is there to join up with Ascot, that too, has seen its open pittable potential upgraded with the last of the drilling there.
I think there will be a lot to come from the MRE of Ascot and how that ties in with the mining study.
Dear Dr Brown,
Thank you for your email.
I’m a bit busy doing podcasts right now but I will get back to you in due course.
Regards
Colin
Think you best look again Johns. Some big buys going through.
JS: " I couldn't get quotes to sell even 250k shares over the past few days"
XTR is a Market Maker only stock and there are always at least 6 of them active. The point of MMs is that they provide liquidity, always. It is what they are contracted to do, So you should always be able to offload at least the NMS (normal market size) which is 50k I think on this stock. If you are getting quotes via a broker like HL, then I would suggest the problem lies with the broker as their auto quote systems query the MMs for best price. If things are not working out doing online quotes it always pays to ring the broker. You probably find quotes readily available that way.
minimum 250k sell is currently offered by all MMs (I did a quick RSP), some offering volumes of 500,000 at various prices down to 2.5. So if people want to sell there is no barrier to that happening.
I don't listen to Zak nor would I advise, it seems like all they post about is a lot of rubbish which may or may not come true depending on which way the wind blows.
This is complete garbage. People have been talking about how only a relatively small % of shares were sold, but actually a lot more would have been sold if there was demand to take them. I couldn't get quotes to sell even 250k shares over the past few days. If I could have sold all of my shares at the quoted price after this news broke I would have done. I suspect many other shareholders are in the same boat and became trapped. Short term charting as Zak has done after a material news event is worthless. I expect there will a lot of investors ready to offload more shares as soon as they can, and this will hold the price back.
Just out - Zak charting suggests a return above 3p is likely short term.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaroXsbOp5c&t=870s&ab_channel=**********
Someone just bought 48k worth.
Colin taking advantage of the situation? Haha