The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yes Colin is a smooth talker and also quite a fast talker and the sound quality makes it a little tricky to follow. Nonetheless if he said anything new or interesting I am happy to be enlightened . He does consistently protest that the link between copper prices and junior copper miners has been lost. This call option is reflected in the majors but I guess there is insufficient confidence in the ability of juniors to deliver for it to transfer to the micros. I have yet again , caved in at the the low price have bought some more GLR as I like the portfolio and it seems better placed than most AIM to benefit if the current bull run in copper and gold continues. And I dont think CB has a secret alias on this BB. It would not be his style. I would not have been surprised if his slippery predecessor Lawrence had used one.
Analytical has been consistently bullish . I think he is only concerned with GLR and has not been burned by investing in other CB companies. Personally CB has been a big let down with all his ventures but I hope that GLR may make up for some of the other companies where investors have taken a pasting. We are now focussed on southern Africa which is now his giant race course and he has placed large bets on several horses . If a few come in we shall all be very happy but he has not had a winner for such along time that the punters are running out of cash and enthusiasm. One of my favourite expressions i "he displays the fragile buoyancy of a loser on a temporary winning streak". This is how most of the posters feel when GLR briefly spikes but we need a real win please Colin.
Mr T . I have to admit that it is rather galling to see that 100 million shares are worth less than 20 k. Time was when my ambition was to gather 100million and retire to a South Sea Island .
Now it will scarce buy a caravan. However I stick to my view that this share could eventually reach .50 and Mcap of 50m .
This is a dangerous job , catching falling knives etc but when it slips below .02 it seems worth a small averaging down opportunity. I am assuming the sells are brokers, consultants etc looking to convert into cash not long suffering holders who have given up all hope. If this company is worth anything then it must be a lot more £2million.
Since his coup selling to first quantum many years back CB has not had any success. I should know as I have invested in most of his companies. This is by far the most painful . He has consistently trumpeted the copper case and it may slowly be turning in his favour finally. He claims to have most of his companies well positioned for the revival in copper prices but sadly the SPs do not reflect any interest. At BZT CB maintains we are waiting on the ML to be finally approved at Hope Gorob. The approval came through at Mankayan and he set up a deal which may yet bring in some $10m for our share.
Likewise when the ML finally drops at Hope Gorob we should be in a position to monetise this within 12 months. On the Namibian mining website they claim permits are issued within 12 months of application maximum. I think CB expected it in April. The ML application has been through all the committee vetting processes and now awaits the ministerial approval . Unfortunately ,there is little confidence in CB's promises any more so the market will only improve when firm evidence of license plus finance plans for open pit is delivered . Meanwhile the SP meanders at pitiful levels .
NTM you are quite right the spread when actually buying shares is well within the published spread. I have just purchased some GLR at 1.07 . There is a 4% spread 1.03-1.07 which seems reasonable. Buyers should not be put off by what the LSE publishes, just go by the prices transacted.
I would like to think that if these cu and au prices are sustained for a week or two it should encourage a lot more buyers
Ok Sorry had overlooked we only own 70%,
So take your figures of 5k tons at $8500 = $42.5m gross sales. Say the profit margin is 40%. ( A guessstimate) Then profit comes out at $17m of which our share is between 21% and 35% depending on the deal they can hammer out with contractor > in the SPV . Special purpose vehicle. I think CB mentioned 50/50 but might be different at beginning as the (chinese) contractor would need to recover some up front costs. All a bit pie in the sky atm but should be getting closer. I think CB said Martin was heading out to Namibia the day after we spoke last week. A 50/50 deal would get us close to the $6m figure.
In my recent discussion with Martin C and CB they mentioned figures of $12m rising to $26m after a couple of years. we will of course have to share this with our contractors. Working backwards and assuming a POC at todays level of $8400 We are looking at 4 m/t (producing 4800 tons cu) and rising to 9600 tons from 8m/t of ore. Assuming 30% margin.. Ball park figures of course . But realistic I hope Cyberiachas. I am still hopeful MR T. Although well aware there's many a slip ....and we have yet to see the cup
After the XTR meeting on tuesday I had a chance to discuss the impending licence with CB, He explained that he hoped we should be granted this license very soon as it had one more committee to pass through only and this was looking very favourable. we should get news at the end of this month. As he has said many times nothing has been left to chance. The non equity financing, the contractors,the freighting and the processing plants are all under way. The moment the license drops we should be ready to roll. The Namibian authorities wanted to see evidence of our good intentions to press ahead. Martin Churchhouse was equally adamant that this was going to happen. CB has said this before but i think he is determined to see this through now. He understands the frustration of the shareholders . The Namibian authorities have tightened up their application processes in the last year so this along with extraneous events such as the death of the president has contributed to the delay. The license application complete with accompanying supporting documents comprised over 600 pages!. Hence a long review .
I think it will be worth the wait as this mine when it is up and running will be producing a very good income quite quickly. Those that have held on for a long long time may shortly see some improvement in the SP . Inshallah.
At yesterday's XTR meeting CB had a large map showing the various licences of AFP XTR and GLR in Zambia. They were sandwiched between some very big operators. CB said there are many other companies who would also like to be there as well and we are well placed in what he considers will be a scramble for copper assets. He also mentioned GLR having $5m in the bank when I queried how we could fund the cost of drilling..
I also attended and sat next to Capn Bob. CB explained the sale was the best way we could obtain the cash necessary to explore the Zambian licences. He hinted it had not been easy extracting cash from our Majority partner despite our holding the licence. This sale would also remove any liability for future safety/compliance issues as the mine expands and provide a more secure source of cash than the current arrangement.
The funds should provide enough for a driliing operation to prove up the Zambian copper gold resources. There is chance of a Kiwara type hit. Manica could never be such a prospect. we have a top team of geologists and engineers on site to plan the drilling and this should be ready by April. It has been said here before but CB is hoping to go out with a bang and deliver up a great resource. There are plenty of eager players who are very keen to get a piece of Zambian copper action and with our licences sewn up for Xtr GLR and AFP CB thinks he has a very good hand to play
I have only invested in varying chunks since dec 2022 in GLR. So this share is the least damaging to my portfolio of CBs stable. But others like BZT XTR and AFP have been huge loss makers for me since I started in CB companies in 2016.
If like Analytical this is your sole CB share you may be OK, Hopeful even.
Obviously as a holder here I hope for the best. But forgive me if it all sounds to good good to be true.
Analytical: over a year ago I contacted Koboldmetals explaining that I had shares in a company with extensive mining interests in Namibia and Botswana. I was referring to BZT but I also have shares in GLR and XTR.
Almost immediately I got a reply from Daniel Enderton the chief strategy officer asking for more info and a deck.
I relayed this to CB and requested he follow this up. I heard nothing from CB. I doubt if he bothered to even respond. A few months later we were subjected to yet another massive dilution to the long suffering as he needed cash to keep the lights on. I used to be a big CB fan but now I am afraid he has no idea how to structure a decent deal. Just sold Manica at XTR for peanuts and is all talk and no substance here at GLR.
Thanks for these contributions.
Cyberiachus says 1. Profit of 4-5m not a straight line guarantee 2. we might soon have to stump up 23% share of $10m capex. 3 . $15m equates to 3 or 4 years and can be better used elsewhere.
Andrew thinks a younger man would probably hang on but CB wants a chance at one last blast on the world copper roulette table but both he and Jezoo think this is CB's benefit not for we shareholders. On balance I have not changed my opinion . $15m in the hand right now may just be persuasive but this sale is scheduled to take a few years when we could have been drawing our profit share so it does not make sense to me. The partner seems to have delivered so far and unless they are holding a gun to our head and threatening to stop paying why sell out ? i am voting against. The prospect has done zero for the SP as it happens. So nobody else seems to value it or they doubt if the proceeds when they arrive will be spent wisely.
The only good thing about XTR (and this includes all CB companies) was that it actually produced an income and hence not liable to regular dilutions that afflict the rest of his companies. I cannot see where the value in selling off for $15 m .
Brilliant deal for buyer MMP who have a delayed purchase arrangement so they can pay us out of cash flow . Largely using our 23% share of income. I was expecting $5m from income PA not from a flogging off a key asset for a song. I shall attend the GM and vote against. Unless anybody here can give me a good reason why not...
Mr T
There are many long termers on this BB who bought in years ago for various reasons. I was sold on the platinum mine and alluvial bonanza in Columbia. Many came in on the Mankayan options triumph when BZT awarded its few shareholders (in those days) a substantial payout.. Since then there have been countless false dawns and it is possible we have just seen another one with the latest dilution. I have invested in most of CB's companies. Mainly drawn in by his copper fervour. Sadly we have yet to see any copper mined in any of his stable and until we do I doubt if this or any other share will recover. He talks of starting up Hope Gorob in 2024 with a target of 8m tonnes PA. If this happens with the outside financing he has promised then this share will increase dramatically. There are other projects of course but Hop e is the only one where we can be sure of making it happen. But will he deliver? I am running out of mananas.
According to the RNS a year ago "our intention is to then to put this model out to the open pit contracting industry to commence operations as soon as we can in quarter 1, 2023, following the receipt of the mineral resource estimate and the production of the block model and theoretical open pit plan".
At Bzt CB is talking about a similar sized mining operation at Hope Gorob in Namibia. Again he is talking about starting up shortly , this case in 2024 after the imminent mining license arrival. I wonder if this will follow the same pattern as Luansobe. Flipper suggests there is much talk talk but no action and far as I can see not an onze of copper has been mined across any of his companies. Some gold at Manica in Mozambique perhaps which is fine but no copper . Is it all an illusion? I hope not. We were supposed to have an exciting October remember. Analytical seems a glass half full sort of guy ... tell us why we should believe CB's projections. I have shares in most of them and am beginning to wish I had never heard of CB.
Having invested at various higher prices I have opted to average down (again!) . Buying in at twice earnings would be a snip anywhere but on AIM . I am assuming this years Fairbride income is around $5m and i do not see the gold price slipping disastrously.