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So little news flow, but some of that is dictated by partners who ask for deals not to be communicated. I’m not expecting much to happen SP-wise until interims.
There’s no deal to be done I’m afraid, Driving. AVO directors are in denial, they’re down in the bunker issuing the same holding RNS every month (just two days to go!) in the misguided belief that “investors” are still trying to work through the fine details of a deal. They’ll keep going until the very last second, when they are legally required to call it a day.
Why wouldn’t the market reaction be positive? Strong momentum through Q1, business fully funded….I was hoping to see those two things confirmed and they have, so I’m very content.
Bango’s house broker has ‘24 EBITDA at $16.8m based on $53.5m revenue. Only three months in, I suspect all we will hear is “meeting expectations”, though it’d be great to hear a bullish statement. And yes, at that level of profit I’d hope we go past 180p in due course, given last year’s target was c$12m. It’s be good too to quash any concerns about cash.
“AFC are miles and miles off selling products…”. Absolute rubbish. They’re open to any orders coming through Speedy Hire, TAMGO or any other relationship they have, and these orders can come through at any time. And competitors “flooding the market” with their own products? Oh yes, just a few years for them to build and test something comparable (if they can) and convince construction firms that their product is as good as AFC’s. The *only* issue here is that the switch from diesel generators will take several years. Meanwhile AFC has clear market leadership and should continue to stay well ahead of any new entrants.
StockCheque - if funds are seeing redemptions month on month (for 33 months now!), with AFC being impacted along with all other UK listed stocks, what’s the point of moving to the main market? More IIs may have AFC holdings but they’d all have to sell month on month, just like current investors. No, I agree with Bond - at some point the tide will turn and the UK market will see net inflows. AIM is perfectly satisfactory for AFC’s current situation.
Two days to go. AVO readying the same RNS as in the last two months to express its surprise at another month’s “delay”. Or can they pull an Easter Bunny out of the hat?
Interesting prezzer. The revenue figures are way underdone IMO - the next three years were what - £6m/£12m/£30m?That’s not even twice the current pipeline. Once TAMGO gets going things will crank up, and the cracker will add something eventually. Point is, it’s still v early days and almost impossible to establish accurate estimates, hence an abundance of caution. The cracker is also at far too early a stage to realise its potential value, but I can believe AB’s view of its worth to the company. Very positive about the future.
Some folk still don’t seem to realise that building a hydrogen business is a long term thing. It ain’t going to happen overnight. I think AFC are making excellent progress. Technology and commercial developments now happening alongside one another. Looking forward to getting more detail tomorrow on the cracker, if they answer my Qs, specifically on what AFC regards as its market leading competencies here, are there barriers to entry, etc.
Er, what, Iwant? The directors will be all together at ADAM for a meeting?
I wonder if the struggle TIG has to grow its share price is because it’s a bit of a confused story? By combining Online Presence and Marketing it can’t be compared neatly to its competitors. And is it a growth or an income stock? Clearly neither at the moment. A further increase in dividend to say 4p might make it more attractive to income funds, but it won’t be at the moment. Even as a “hybrid”, at some point a satisfactory level of dividend EPS growth will inexorably lead to a share price response but how long? Any merit in separately listing the Marketing and Presence businesses? Or a NASDAQ listing?
What do we hope to hear on Monday, folks? I’m hoping we get a new share buyback programme for 2024, cancellation of the shares in Treasury, an increased dividend and a bullish forward looking statement. Please Santa.
I hope the results will be a catalyst for getting this show back on the road after a ridiculous over-reaction. Last year was a good one, just spoiled at the last minute with some silly foreseeable errors and a late decision to change revenue recognition. Looking forward to a bullish forward statement and an update on the DVM pipeline.
In an RNS dated 18 Jan 2023 about future deliverables AVO said:
“Completion of building (for first patients in Daresbury) and approval for patient treatment in accordance with UHB guidance and requirements:
For patient use, the Daresbury site is required to comply with cancer treatment facilities, including planning and design. The Company and UHB have designed the building together in compliance with the relevant specifications. The Company requires the acceptance of the patient care space by UHB prior to use.”
The treatment room built so far is not yet adequate for UHB’s needs.
The treatment room was not ready, Basil. Part of the additional funds was to pay for it to be brought up to UHB’s requirements.
That was a very positive interview! Never mind what remained unsaid about ABB and others, the near future for Speedy, Tamgo and the cracker technology looks very exciting. Folks are still impatient and forgetting it takes a long time to get these partnerships moving….
AsItReallyIs - what part of what I said is wrong? I’m not an expert so happy to be corrected. Advanced Oncotherapy plc has subsidiaries, including in USA, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Many/most staff employed by these will be on local contracts. Employment legislation differs.
In the Netherlands, for example, a company can suspend payments to debtors (which will include AVO’s staff here) for up to 18 months, for example in a debt restructuring exercise - precisely what the parent company is trying to achieve. If a debtor seeks repayment (and this could be a staff member) then a judge *could* remove the debt suspension and the company could be declared bankrupt. I suspect the parent company is doing all it can to avoid such a situation whilst it desperately tries to bring in new funds. Against this background, I’m unclear how far a “high court summons” in the UK would have jurisdiction. I just don’t know.
Well well, surprise surprise. This money will never come.
AsItReallyIs - Many staff are employed by the non-UK parts of the business which is why the company hasn’t been forced into administration yet despite non-payment of wages for ten months. Different regs apply.
In the interview Dan referenced the sale of the Asanko mine, a transaction between Galliano and Gold Fields. He’s right to say it’s comparable to Dugbe - they’re very similar in terms of size, AISCs etc. Asanko went for an equivalent of $370m. However that included paying for $130m cash sitting in a JV which is not relevant to HUM. In short, 45% of the project ignoring this cash element went for $105m in immediate payments or payable over three years. This strongly suggests that HUM’s 53% of Dugbe is worth something not too dissimilar - maybe a bit more - say 9-10p+ per share. Asanko’s NPV is lower than Dugbe’s but they’re already built the plant.