Member Info for iWantThatOne

The only real negative sentiment I’m seeing expressed is the low bill-to-book ratio of 0.41 for Q1 - something to be asked at the coming presentation. Seems incongruous when the order book is at a high and the company is confident for 2025.

Happy with the RNS today. No apparent effect yet from tariffs or possible recession, and there are two manufacturing sites in the US. The analysts seem happy.

Equity Development’s EV/EBITDA is wrong btw, it’s not 3.8 but more like 6 (per other analyst reports, and a simple bit of maths).

AG, you asked for my experience of HUM. Too long to go into fully. Their Mali mine ran ok for several years but eventually had operational issues. They then developed a new mine at Kouroussa (not in Mali) which would have seen the company value soar. It ran into huge problems - employee hire took forever due partly to local issues; the mining contractor’s fleet didn’t work properly; the country’s diesel supplies all blew up due to a fire at their central location (!); ramp up took forever; artisan workings needed to be dug through and this took ages; they continued to need financing even one year after the mine should have been in a profitable position; and eventually they were taken over by the outfit who’d financed them with multiple injections of equity and debt. Key takeaways - West African mining has big risks; nothing is easy; expect hold-ups.

Regarding valuation, I know from my miserable period as a HUM shareholder that West African gold miners tend to be valued around 2-3xEBITDA, with variations around that depending on debt levels and other things. We can all calculate where that would leave CORA based on our own assumptions. Taking production at 80k ozs pa, POG $3000 and AISC $1000, for example, 3x roughly gives $480m (I appreciate that’s not strictly “EBITDA” but close enough). Currently there are around 550m shares, fully diluted, so that gives 70p per share. However we do need to allow for dilution (inevitable during the plant build period and before) and the substantial share that the Mali Gov will take - possibly 5% royalty plus up to 30% of profits (to be determined). So personally I feel talk of £1 per share is fanciful even if the resource is increased. However there is certainly scope for good growth in the sp as we eventually move towards production.

Have you allowed for any dilution from additional share issues? I’ve lost track of how they think they’re going to finance the initial capex…..

I think we need a statement on how the current environment is expected to affect the company. Certainly a recession could affect people buying goods using DCB or taking out subs - but does this warrant the drop we’ve seen? What about potential tariffs on Amazon physical goods in Japan, or other? Just dunno.

Yeah that’s it - tariffs must be a major reason for the fallback esp in the last few days. Virtually 50% of MPAC’s business in 2023 was for US customers - which may attract a 10% tariff now. I don’t know about their 2024 acquisitions - maybe 20%. Or not - it would seem perverse to add a tariff on machinery designed to support local retailing and manufacturing. We’ll see.

Not long to wait now for the FY results, which I’m told will include detail on progress, R&D, expenses etc. (I wrote a lengthy email to the company and had a lengthy reply in turn, but much was generic bearing in mind the rules and regs on this). A generally positive response, I thought, with the Feb refresh of DVM capabilities seen as opening up the market further and generally improving the proposition. Trouble is, there’s so little news flow here that it would be easy to turn bearish, especially at times like this when Trump tariffs are wreaking havoc on sentiment generally.

Good interview with Michael. Interesting to hear him say that when TIG was just a domains business it traded at 10-12x EBITDA. Sounded like he was keen for potential purchasers to get back to that. He also seems very confident that Search will eventually return to the “old” levels of revenue and profitability. If so, this is severely undervalued.

Edison valued DIS at 9.7x ‘24 EBITDA of $19m (so $189m) and also 8.5x ‘25e EBITDS of $23m - so $198m.

Looks like it’s GSA Capital - values of “trust, fairness and integrity” - who have opened a 0.5% short position to add to Helikon’s 3.2%. The fact is, though, that at some point the shorters have to buy back their shares. We’re in a trough today, we’ll see a rise on another. I agree with comments that the BoD should be trying their best to keep the excitement going and bring in new investors. The product quality is there but at the end of the day we need continuing buys, and that’s what’ll beat the shorters.

AFC will sell the products to the Speedy/AFC JV, I think. Who will then lease them, yes.

Gitfinger, you mention the still high cost of a fuel cell at £67k even after 66% cost reductions. AFC have talked about it being comparable with diesel gensets on a total cost of ownership basis - so even if the up-front capital cost is higher, it will even out over the lifetime of the product. I'm sure funding arrangements will be put in place for clients to overcome the initial capital cost, with the interest and repayment costs included in the TCO calculation. (More likely it will be the Speedy JV buying the fuel cell/cracker combos before leasing them out, so that's even easier to set up a funding arrangement).

I’m excited by the vision laid out in the prezzer today. Tech that is on a par, cost-wise, with diesel generators? Count me in! £10 per kg of H, down from £65 today? Fantastic if it can be achieved. And beyond diesel generators, consider the other possibilities for generating cheap Hydrogen….

I’m pretty relaxed about another equity raise. Give them six months to develop the low cost fuel cell, then the full system can be demonstrated- sp will rise, then another £15m at 10p (say) will easily be achievable and not too dilutive. Even then the company value will be so much higher….

Best plan - go away for six months. Maintain a shareholding (to benefit from takeover offers and ultimately rising SP) and relax.

If Boku bought Bango now at 160p then (at EV/EBITDA of 10) that would still be nicely “accretive” for Boku (at least on that metric - and potentially a good use of their cash). The DCB businesses are clearly complementary. I don’t know the implications for the respective platforms. But food for thought.

Agree! It was 580p just weeks ago, easy 30% from here to mid-500s assuming the new businesses have integrated without any issues.

Boku’s FY results out today. They’re now trading at an EV/EBITDA of about 17, cf Bango’s 5 or so. Some reasons for that, possibly: they have guided for top line growth of >20% going forward, with EBITDA margin expanding from its current 30% from next year. They have cash ($80m) and are buying back shares. And have industry leadership now in alternative payment methods. As we keep saying, Bango is on a similar trajectory, they just need to sell stuff.

FWIW Boku is down by almost the exact same percentage YTD - about 17% - so it’s not just Bango. The company is fully funded, making profits, has a strong position in its market - what’s not to like? Yet here we are - valued like a company in distress. Management should pay more attention to the needs of the shareholders - more comms, an investor day, more promotion. Not good enough.

Zeus’ report today concludes:

“Zeus’ 2024E forecasts (with results, we believe, to be announced in April) signal higher revenue and sharply reduced losses. Our DCFbased target valuation is 10p: suggesting significant potential upside to the current share price assuming further commercial progress. News today is potent validation of Symphony’s d2w technology. “

There’s nothing really to add to the RNS beyond this.

Personally I feel the company could be at an inflection point - break-even and now with independent corroboration that their solutions solve a massive environmental problem.

H2 - from Oct ‘24 to March ‘25 - is always stronger than H1 so they’ll build up more cash. Plus the research notes published in the last few weeks say cash is sufficient, And they don’t state that without having discussed with the company first.