Member Info for iWantThatOne

G_G_G, yes I was referring to the net rights they have in the Resources estimate. I don’t think it’s correct to say they have 100% rights on 25% of the land. Instead they have rights that vary from 0 to 100%, with an overall average that clearly varies according to which parcels are under discussion, and over what area. For instance, the P90 contingent resource figure is based on 80 acres around Jetstream 1, where PLSR’s net rights average out at 50.0%. For the P10 contingent resource estimate, that covers 640 acres around Jetstream 1 but PLSR’s net rights are only 20.1% overall - presumably because more of the land parcels in this wider area currently have no lease agreement.

Just a reminder that PLSR is not entitled to 100% of the value of the He/CO2 here. The land is leased and the owners are entitled to significant percentages. For example, the current P50 contingent resources only come with a c25% net interest at the moment. (Ofc this may change as the resource is reassessed and as the company seeks additional leases though I think this will mostly reflect prospective resources).

Do we seriously believe radix account for c10m of the 13m+ domains mentioned? I don’t believe it. I need to check the Report & Accounts- that will surely spell out any hugely significant concentrations of risk.

I asked ChatGPT to analyse the valuation differences between Bango and Boku. Several points:

- Boku had scale, and has produced steady results and progression for a while

- Boku is the clear market leader in DCB and this generally provides a higher valuation

- Boku is well diversified, dealing in local payments and wallets. Bango relies solely on DVM (outside of DCB)

- Need to see several quarters of “cleaned up” results post-sorting out the DOCOMO Digital low value routes

- and finally, need to prove and scale DVM.

So as I’ve commented before, I think we’re still early here, the company needs to prove itself for a year or two - but then the rewards should come.

That PE is quite typical for US tech stocks growing at 25% pa like Boku which is also, let’s recall, reinvesting cash flow into R&D, thus dampening net income.

After reflecting a bit more I think H1 has laid the groundwork for a reasonable year. To hit the EBITDA target of c$17m they essentially just need to replicate H2 last year. And with higher ARR, a stronger DVM pipeline and cost reductions it should be pretty straightforward. You can only cut costs so much, though - DVM revenue really does need to ramp up more significantly. I suppose we can see green shoots now, with the 7 deals in H1.

Google announced their Q2 earnings last night. Surprisingly for many, Search revenue was up nicely, confounding those who thought AI would rapidly take over. It’s still a risk, of course, but perhaps not as apocalyptic as the AI supporters thought. Sounds supportive for TIG’s H1 earnings.

No surprises. At last, some small indication that DVM may be getting traction but it’s all still so slow. Good growth in EBITDA, but it looks like that has come from cost reductions as much as revenue growth so not sure that it’s a strong indicator for H2. They need to get DVM cranked up!

Is that a serious question, Ade? People will continue to invest because moment when AFC will deliver its ground-breaking products gets closer and closer. Leave it too late and they may miss the jumps. Some people will be pound cost averaging and putting a little in every month. The next 12 months is the time to build your stake in the company.

Annoyingly I missed the first half hour of the presentation today and only saw the Q&As. Is it just me or did JW seem very bolshie by the end - maybe infuriated by the accusation of stabbing retail investors in the back!

£27.5m of funds to support development (together with dev costs from the S&P partner) is undoubtedly GREAT news. This should remove a lot of the doubt about whether AFC will actually emerge from its development phase to become a truly commercial hydrogen leader. There won’t be many more fund raises of this level, if any. Full steam ahead.

Does anyone else think DCB is a bit of a distraction now? It’s not core to Bango’s proposition - it’s always referred to as the “cash cow”. It must take some management effort away from DVM. A sale to Boku at, say, 2.5-3x revenue would be accretive for both sides, would generate over $100m and would double the share price overnight. That cash would be used to support DVM development as required and could significantly accelerate the sales and marketing effort.

Folks, we knew a fund raise was coming. The good news is that IIs are willing to fund the company to the tune of £23m. That’s a seriously impressive sum! And with support of production costs for certain products, that should go a good way. By itself, the fund raise should dispel some doubts about solvency and thereby support the share price. 10p is light but what can you do? Zeus has written a positive (in my opinion) research note today, and I’ll be taking part in the retail offer.

Agreed, I looked at expected EBITDA in 2026 based on what Michael said and, together with expected debt reduction and good progress with Search, concluded there is 100% from here by next year.

Michael said they won’t give an update on Search until the HY, so no concerns from me. I think this was just an opportunity to be even more clear about the company’s three divisions each being up for sale, with DIS perhaps being the one that’ll be easiest to get away. Having scaled back my investment here I’m now considering getting back in to a large degree, as I’m very confident the break up value is worth way more than the current SP.

I suspect Boku is now being considered a Fintech company and therefore commands a higher multiple. Larger competitors like DLocal are getting a lot of attention from retail investors in the US at the moment. DCB is only a part of their business so m not sure it’s straightforward to compare the two companies. Not to mention their faster revenue growth and good free cash flow (which we won’t see here until next year). Bango is still relatively early, in my opinion - accumulate now and wait several years.

Two things that could come out of today’s announcement. First, the Government could say “hold on everyone, why should we subsidise you all any more when AFC Energy can do it”? V bullish. And second, clients of electrolyser companies might also say “hold on, instead of putting millions of our capital into these big electrolysers let’s take a little look-see at AFC”. Good times a-coming.

PS: a bit more respect for Alan Bond, please. The new management has done extremely well but they’re building on the foundations that AB put in place over many years. He moved on before any of the groundwork could be fully commercialised.

Huge! For the first time (I think?) AFC have explicitly laid down the gauntlet and said they’re here to take on the electrolysis crew. Well done again, AFC.

Having a Laugh, you’re doing your best to drive this one down today. The SP was already well off more recent highs following the Final Results and notification of the low Bill to Book ratio. Today’s news was to a large extent already baked in at the recent 425-440p price. Valuation metrics now look very low after the trading update. Any further fall from here will be quickly snapped up, IMO.

The three analysts following MPAC have revised price targets of 550p, 600p and 650p, for what it’s worth.