I am curious about the 14% (62m shares) stake held by Sanderson, where did they get this stake from, note that they had previous links to Beaufort Securities. I do not think it came from the last placing.
Sanderson RNS'ed this position on 2nd September saying the transaction completed on the 25th August - the placing of 83m shares took place one month earlier and there was no mention of a major investor taking 75% of the stock.
Since this stake was declared the share price has been in perpetual decline with some very large sell trades hitting the bid, some speculation on ADV$N that Sanderson are not in the most healthy financial position.
I am a little concerned about this position, where did the stake come from, was it acquired through the Beaufort administration process, it was not bought on market for certain and I am convinced it was not acquired via the placing or Bird would have said so and I believe it would have been part of that RNS.
I suppose when a share price is falling people have conspiracy theories, but anything to do with Beaufort gives me the creeps.
The BOD have been saying since March they are in a closed period but I cannot believe this is the case for so long, Louis Castro at the shareholder event in March clearly stated he would buy shares in AST when he could - well he has not and is still using the closed period reason.
They have not placed this statement in a RNS which would have needed to be verified by the Nomad - in essence if this is an excuse not to buy shares in AST then IMO it needs outing.
I know there are some very determined shareholders here, deeply under water with significant cash invested, I would suggest either a phone call or email to the Nomad to ask if the BOD have been in a closed period, since March and are currently would provide accuracy.
The Nomad can answer this question (and has to truthfully) because the BOD has stated the closed period in the recent podcast and elsewhere, shareholders have a right to know.
The Nomad details are listed on every RNS.
Confidence in management is shot to pieces but this can change in a flash, £3m m/cap for a company with the assets AST has is balmy, get a well financed and well managed company with experience in dealing with local politics and they would make a small fortune.
My bet is a deal is being cooked along these lines, question is how much is in it for AST shareholders if so ??
The AISC rise is clearly due to new investment in plant etc, this often occurs whilst a company is in a 'recovery situation'
The most important aspect is that gold production is increasing and the positive outlook concerning debt re-structure.
On target to produce 80,000 oz pa next year with a circa £25m m/cap - peers are valued circa £150m - £200m, get the debt restructured and it's happy days.
I wonder if the 250k buyer will be gathering up stock again today.
A great update - nearly 19,000 oz produced and generating a decent level of free cash despite lack of historic investment in plant.
They seem very confident of debt talks completing by year end, the re-rate will continue - on target for 70,000 oz of production this year, the new team are delivering !!
It is 'at best' on the most small buy order currently - there is simply no stock available - the background buyer is there for a purpose - I wonder how much stock the large buyer has managed to accumulate??
Good luck anyone trying to get in, when a stock is hard to buy for over 1 month there is usually a very good reason.
If anyone believes the BOD will turn this around (the podcast suggested they are working hard to do so) you will never get a better chance to buy at basement levels whilst volume is lowish and Riverfort are selling into the same thin volume.
Riverfort can only sell 30m shares a month according to the agreement - this means if buy volume exceeds 30m then there is the upside. You can see how quickly the market makers are prepared to mark up if they suspect a volume surge is coming - look how fast the offer moved to .16p this afternoon on modest interest.
What people need to remember is that daily volume in these micro caps can reach 500m+ under the right circumstances - that is very relevant.
News must be forthcoming on a number of fronts shortly.
At risk of repeating myself but I remain convinced someone is acquiring every line of stock that comes onto the market - every sell (and there are few) is met soon after with a buy around the same size.
My bet is someone knows what is happening, could be an associate of the larger shareholders or dare I suggest a market insider !
Still a great entry point, based on 80m oz pa of gold production this is a £200m company compared to peers - even taking debt into account that leaves a 5 fold prospective share price increase.
Once again you come up with numbers concerning Riverfort I can make no sense out of - I asked before to explain how you suggest Riverfort can make £3m from the funding deal.
Kindly explain clearly how Riverfort can make £3m, provide your working out for scrutiny - I cannot see it at all.
Anyone who has had conversations with Colin Bird will know how hard it is to get straight answers to even the most simple questions - this is not because he tries to avoid or hide the truth but simply because he tends to ramble on and gets sidetracked into other areas - for example one moment he can be talking about Mozambique and then divert to South Africa or some project he was involved with 30 years ago - in a nutshell it is extremely frustrating.
I have decided to 'ignore' the alluvial situation, clearly the numbers were not as expected back in the early times when Colin anticipated 4 contractors and suggested meaningful income, despite this we must be thankful for what we do get, there is no risk to XTR shareholders and the money serves some purpose in covering some G&A costs.
Most shareholders are here for Manica Hard Rock, last Thursday (in the small amount of time I had with him) he simply suggested there was a lot going on at Manica - that was all he said, he then diverted to Zambia - he is exceptionally excited about Zambia.
What is worthy of comment this statement today ....
"We have reviewed our management structure and are making several changes to meet the requirements of the Company's aggressive production development and new exploration targets in Zambia."
Does this mean he is bringing in new management, is he now going to hand the reigns over to someone more focused, a new CEO maybe.
Also of note is that Xtract are using a new PR outlet, this may become apparent shortly, there appears to be something going on behind the scenes, also the 14% stake taken by Sanderson Capital - one assumes in the last placing at 1.2p - why Xtract now ?
I have to say I am very surprised by the share price decline, it started as soon as they announced they would be issuing shares in respect of the payment of £160k to KPZ International Ltd - are these being forward sold I wonder ??
Lots to discuss as ever.
I am convinced the next update will include news on the debt re-structure - this could explain the delay, usually this company have been very reliable with news and has openly commented about how essential it is to update it's shareholders.
It is worth noting that Iamgold Corp reported it's Q3 numbers last week with an average gold price over $1480oz
The gold price move has been exceptionally beneficial to MTL and will add strength to the debt discussions.
There are still buyers mopping up any loose stock, would still not rule out some form of offer to the minority shareholders who remain.
Had a brief chat with Colin Bird last night he said there was a lot going on on the ground at Manica - another investor asked him about what was the future would be like for Xtract, Colin's reply was very good indeed.
The evening was primarily for Jubilee and Colin is not the easiest fellow to pin down, I asked him about the alluvials - he commented that last month was a good month so it does look like they are moving in the right direction.
I concluded from the short time he spoke about Xtract that all was well - interestingly Xtract is now being promoted by Zak Mir (as well as others) so expect some new podcast coverage shortly.
I suspect there is some news to come before the Xmas break.
I managed to get to Colin last night , it was not easy as he was surrounded by many investors concerning Jubilee, it was also his birthday, he had his family present.
In respect of GLR......
The small scale mining licence has been applied for, he did not say when the application went in but he did say it takes no more than 90 days, he considered this a formality.
He re-iterated that everything is on track in respect of the production timetable as per the podcast.
The Jubilee zinc circuit is on track, again no expected delays.
No problems concerning sub contractors.
Colin is exceptionally enthusiastic concerning Zambia, mentioning the massive resource base in the country.
It was not possible to speak with him about GLR's other projects, he did not hang around very long but I am very pleased to hear that everything is on track and the timelines have not slipped.
I have a feeling we may get some news shortly concerning GLR, we may be further pleasantly surprised, Colin seemed very positive about GLR's prospects.
Hope the above assists, no advice is intended but I will be adding to my position shortly.
I would like to see your workings out in simple format on how Riverfort can make 300% on the funding deal.
You are assuming the share price will stay the same as it is now which is unlikely but please show us how nonetheless.
It is true that the lower the share price goes the less Ascent will get by way of cash from Riverfort over 12 months . Castro said that AST had already received $500k via the loan element, separate from the 12 equal payment deal.
Can it be that Ascent do not care about how much they receive via the 12 month equity deal because the company is going to morphed into another company or sold - if this occurs it matters not what the share price is now as a sale price may already be agreed.
I further deduce, having listened to the CC again, that they talk about potentially re-entering old wells and finding new shallow targets, they have no money to do this and, once again, it suggests the company may be sold or bring in a significant JV partner possibly taking an equity stake.
JB said that this is a dynamic period for Ascent and pleaded for patience - my bet is a deal is being cooked. My view, if your brave average down if your a newbie a great chance to see upside from current levels.
Thanks folks I will do my best in the short space of time I suspect I will get with CB after the presentation and report back, one question I can ask on the floor is regarding the JLP Zinc circuit as it is JLP that are presenting.
What we really want to know is everything on track to meet the timelines and revenues CB told us about in the summer podcasts.