The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Interesting chat.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8502276-midweek-takeaway-zambia-special
Bit of a catch 22 here Mafuta.
We want access to Tim because we are not flush with cash (IE we've dropped 80-90%)
But I need cash to be able to see him.
What a dilemma.
How much does attending BIO cost? Think we've worked out how to get time with our CEO ;)
To quote the one and only Dennis Skinner, DD = Dodgy Dave.
He was quite right, too.
DC (Dodgy Dave) and CB ((in)competent Colin ) would make an interesting pair.
Is he creating value for us or for someone else? You never really know with Colin..
Who knows what dodgy backroom deals took place in downtown Maputo...
Good find HBD. I make that a list of 42 possible cancers (many are described as other, so the number is not exact).
Ultimately, SRA + others (gemcitabine etc.) have the potential to treat millions of people diagnosed with cancer ever year. It is a shame that combo therapy is so complicated to work out financially. Ensuring enough profit is the MO of every pharma understandably but struggling to agree who will pay for and how much money they will make from a treatment is ultimately costing lives.
I am glad CRUK have licenced SRA and I'm glad an unknown entity are trying to make it happen. I would conclude that the delay in any news whatsoever is due to pharma squabbling over access and their own milestone payments etc.
Hopefully we will see progress soon (for own sakes and for future patients).
*Caveat here is I completely understand it may be hypocritical of me investing in a pharmaceutical company expecting money yet complaining about the system. My answer would be that investors participating in the Wrap are helping to get treatments to market! (I am also underwater here so it's not currently about the profit ;) )
Zap, what I take from that is:
a) "However, with the priorities lying now in the western foreland"--> Distracted by a new play thing and possible elephants, CB has become bored by the hard work required at Kakuyu.
b) "Alternatively, Colin also said it would be reckless to start a mining operation without first fully understanding the geology" --> Best way to understand the geology is by drilling. We had money to drill. He has mentioned drilling 3 times in 15 months. At one point it was scheduled. Why has CB not done what he said he would do or if he has, why has he not updated us with drilling results?
"Agreement ‘reached’ with Kabwe refinery for treatment and sale of ore" --> 3 references to this in 15 months and no income/progress on this front.
-"Geological contractor and grade control team employed on a permanent basis." Are we still paying for this?
Doing a decent job of Spin Doctor here, Zap. 15 months of overpromise and underdeliver is what I take from the above.
I've just had a quick trawl through RNSs since the Kakuyu update on 26th January, 2023, i.e. 15 months ago. I was very surprised to see that it has been so long since a Kakuyu-specific update, but it does speak volumes perhaps about how little exploration has been going on over the past year. For anyone intending to see excellent progress in our new Zambian licences, the following tale could bring you down to earth with a bump.
26th January 2023
The following was described (a condensed version):
- There are several copper targets.
- Sampling and drilling required on the southern side of Kakuyu Hill
- Work is under way to push back the existing ramp access to the pit to expose in-pit extensions of higher-grade
- A 250t bulk sample has been delivered to the Kabwe Refinery ahead of negotiations.
- Samples delivered to an external consultant for metallurgical work.
- The Company is now sourcing a drill rig to test the potential extensions to mineralisation
Lots going on you would think. Fast forward to Final results, 6 months later (!), 29th June 2023.
- The phrase used is "Work is underway". I should hope so bearing in mind the Board described such work 6 months previous. What a great way to lower expectations!
- Reference is made once again to drilling ("We are scheduling drilling to assess the ore composition at depth")
- Reference also again made to "pushback to expose ore in the former open pit"
- Two bulk samples of high-grade ore have been dispatched to commercial concentrator operators for assessment (presumably this is the 250t)
- There is also reference to "the presence of random and variable amounts of cobalt, which we are investigating with a view to selectively mining the higher-grade cobalt areas."
Fast forward 3 months to the Half Year Report on 29th September 2023
· Work is underway at Xtract's newly acquired Kakuyu project in Zambia
(work underway again!)
- Reference is again made to them undertaking pushback
- Reference is again made to a 250t bulk sample being sent for processing at the Kabwe Refinery and metallurgical testing.
(the wording is almost word for word from the RNS 9 months before)
- Reference is made to targets requiring further sampling and drilling
Takeaways:
- The progress here is painfully slow. 15 months since initial RNS and much of that reported has not been reported on since.
- Drilling was mentioned in January '23. In June, it was "scheduled". Do we get to see any of the results?
- I'm flabbergasted by this one. 250t sample apparently sent in January '23 for testing. Almost the exact same wording used 9 months later. Why does Colin think he can regurgitate language 9 months later? 15 months later, we have had no news on this.
- Samples sent to external consultant for metallurgical testing -why no news on this?
- They have found cobalt -no news on this?
All in all, the lack of information here is ridiculous. We should be careful not to expect miracles in Zambi
Michu, surely a role in the Xtract board is one of the easiest around? Log on once a day to check work emails. Nothing happening so log off Teams and log into lse as Old School View. Type some drivel about Colin knowing what he's doing, trust in the BOD etc. Done and dusted before lunch. Down the snooker hall for a jug of whatevers on tap and 3 hours of cue sports. (Driving range or 9 holes also an option). 60k per annum.
Michu, this is all part of Operation Rampathon aka attract new investors to the table. I believe Jez signed up for this a few weeks back. You laughing at my suggestions completely undermines my efforts ;)
It would help if Colin decided to actually undertake some exploring IE. earn his wages.
I hope AA's PDF of historic drilling data has kept him busy for the past 6 months.
I would take 5p and a bar of snickers at this rate.
Andrew, I think we are all certain the copper price is going one way. However the last few years has shown us no one can predict (accurately) the speed that that will happen. Colin and many others have been promising this for years.
Therefore, given Colin's advanced years and the lack of precision in forecasting, would he be prepared to sell BR priced at 10k in the next month or two OR perhaps wait a couple more years or his 80s to get 12-14k and perhaps 50m more in the asking price?
I for one would prefer the bow wrapped before Christmas 2024, ideally at 10,500/tonne and 100-150m rather than Christmas 2026 and 200-250m.
Each to their own of course.
Personally, as mentioned before, I think Colin loves the gravy train: 125k here plus a hefty sum at GLR, BZT and AFP...
Brighty, thank you for your contributions to the board, especially in trying to put valuations on takeouts etc.
I, like many others, I'm sure would prefer a take out, lock stock and barrel. It removes the need to consider when to sell, something I am terrible at.
The only time I would prefer a licence is if we are offered enough $ up front for 1801 to enable a fast track like no other for 1802. However, I don't see John and Tim being able to fast track anything, apart from perhaps Priority boarding on an easyJet flight. Their way is slow and methodical. It serves a purpose, especially in getting clinical trials right. But a licence would only mean we have to wait 2 or 3+ years more for full value of all of our compounds...
I'm intrigued by Sareum's phasing in the SRA737 section: "Identification of partner"
Do they expect it to come to light sooner rather than later? Fingers crossed we get plans of a phase 2 or 3 combo trial with concrete timelines for milestone payments - i.e. securing funding for SDC1801 phase 2 in the process
Complete agree Basil. I will not stop criticising RF, PH (who presumably advised the deal) and the BoD who decided to accept.
We are at 0.54p old money, still 90+% down from the highs.
200% increase in the last 10 days or so does not stop me criticising - it only goes to show how far we fell! Look back at the 5 year chart and see how far we have to get back to a level where 1801/2 + 737 are fairly valued.
Bailiff. Sounds like things have been as turbulent there as the SAR share price. Hope all is well.
I think I still need 150 to be in profit, but much better than needing 300 which it was before :)
You would think shorts will have closed by now...
Sheep - to have the knowledge that Rach claims to have, you would need to have done hundreds of hours of research and be an expert in the field.
Their statements contradict such a conclusion ("only looked into it when it surged") as you quite rightly point out. Their opinion is as worthy as mine is, and I have no expertise in the field. However I have read opinions from experts in the field - something they seem not to have done.
They evidently have a negative agenda for a reason or are just incompetent in their research.
I'd accept a US280m offer tomorrow! Would be a 22 bag for those participating in the Wrap.
If P1 results are as good as many think they will be, then I would not take £225m (280 US in £). The potential is too great.
Interesting question about delaying the positive news about phase 1 until we are shot of RF.
On the one hand, RF still being around will slow down the rise in share price. It will act as a drag due to continued selling.
However, their selling will occur at a higher price meaning they will need fewer shares to recoup the amount agreed. Therefore there would be less dilution overall, benefiting us PIs in the long run.