Member Info for Benhowell459

That's a month old Jez - any reason in particular why tomorrow might be good?

Agree, bob. It was 5-10k tonnes per month.

Let's take the lower end of that.

5,000 tonnes *0.03 * 35k

= 5.2m USD per month pre costs.

60% of which is 3.1m USD per month.

Could be 1.5m per month at a minimum from early to mid 2027.

As you say Bob, this is just one hill on one licence out of 20.

Huge potential.

ignoring all the waffle, i liked the stat (obviously pinch of salt because it's not an rns but also it's not cb so maybe it balances out...

500,000 tonnes in one hill at 3%

multiplied by antimony price of 35k usd per tonne.

jv allows for xtract to recoup our capex costs at 80% of income after which 60% of income goes to us, as per rns 26/2/26.

so 60% of the above is 315m usd pre costs, labour, security, machinery etc.

not sure about tax of course but that's some pretty impressive gross income mc is discussing there.

please fact check my numbers as these are very much back of a *** packet

Just to add to this...

"They're not going to just let it go."

No one said anything about letting anything go.

BCM will prioritise Mbe. They would be idiots not to. Unless Ndom or the other licences somehow trump Mbe. Although I don't see that happening either because Mbe had the best soil samples and they chose to drill there first.

This doesn't mean they'll sell Bibemi. They can hold on, doing the bare minimum to keep the licence. It's by far from binary, mine or no mine. There is potential for a mine some day in the future - who knows if the price of gold hits 6-8k, they might be tempted but why would you put money, time and resources into a 460k resource when a 1m+ (possibly 2m+ by the time we do phase 2s at BOTH south and north) is also in your stable.

Completely agree Kutzz.

Senala and Bibemi are a sideshow.

Senala, after a 6-year earn in (yes, 6 years!!) managed to confirm a grand total of 155k ounces. Pitiful.

Bibemi has 460k ounces. 100k in the indicated and 360k in the inferred category. This is after FIVE phases of drilling. FIVE.

The last results to come from Bibemi dated 17/3/2025 (phase 5) of 7 holes had gold intersections of maximum 4m at 2g/tonne. Most of the 7 holes had 1m of gold maximum. Most holes went down to 150m depth. Not the most inspiring.

Compare that to Mbe.

One phase of drilling --> 870k ounces. Open at depth and in all directions.

Compare the intervals. 4m in the 5th (the latest) phase of drilling at Bibemi, 86m and 29m at Mbe.

Even if you consider the exploration targets at Bakassi and Lawa (part of Bibemi), you will add in between 145,000oz and 400,000oz, which would still be lower than one phase at Mbe South.

There is a reason Mbe has taken much of their focus. The scale is completely different.

Mbe is the company maker. Bibemi was the proof of concept.

Nice positive move upwards. Obviously with all the dilution down at 0.6p many people need higher prices to break even.

I would take 3p but think I actually need 4p to break even.

NtM it wasn't me I'm afraid - I lowered my average back at 0.64 for a couple grand which went against my conclusion not to back a CB horse again. I'm glad I did but there is a long way to go.

Hopefully we get more news on the antimony and not just from Kev et al, i.e. meaningful updates via RNS re production timelines.

'ere's 'oping!

And if course, NtM...because it's Friday...

Wouldn't want to be out of this over the...

Ah the ramper is back. I'm all for positivity but unqualified and poorly evidenced forward looks on share price make such outlandish statements worse than CB, imo.

Would also call zap and JD positive but to their credit they try time and time again to back up arguments with RNS content and input from elsewhere.

Shows the market is an absolute joke if £400k worth of buys didn't move the buy price.

That should have pushed the sp up to 0.4p at the very least. How on earth have they not changed a thing??

Yep good one buy those. Very mature.

Question raised around why there is value / share price disconnect.

Points out that Cameroon doesn't have a well developed mining environment/ infrastructure and we need to prove this in addition to a resource.

Response to said point revolves around caution in bed.

Grow up.

It's a valid point - one I note you haven't addressed.

On a side note, Oil Novice - thanks didn't know about the colomine mine. Appreciate the civil response.

I'll reiterate, it's good to have balanced discussion on a BB to address potential risks.

Too many rampers actually put people off.

Oil Novice - I do think the fact Cameroon has never had a gold mine and Oriole is trying to navigate the whole regulatory framework from scratch might have something to do with it.

The historty in Cameroon basically revolves around artisanal mining and although they revised their mining code in 2016 and 2023, Oriole are faced with not only proving there is a deposit (we're doing well on this front), we also need to prove the country is fit for purpose from a mining perspective. Infrastructure, skills, expertise, a supportive government and appropriate regulatory landscape.

The exploitation licence will be key but we really cannot compare companies because Cameroon as a country is so far behind many others. It's not just the deposit.

Hopefully with our good relationship we are able to prove that large scale gold mining is possible in Cameroon. Unfortunately that's on us (and BCM - very positive that they are so invested).

Btw the phrase first mover advantage is great that we got to cherry pick the licences.

But first mover disadvantage is a very real thing - we have to do all the hard work proving infrastructure and environment is positive for successful large scale gold mining.

I want some of what he's smoking. No disrespect but I judge CB on past performance and not on forward looking statements.

I have zero faith that production will follow the timelines that he has set out. Why? Because he has never managed to keep to them. Manica was promised to be in production but took years to ramp up.

Oh we can't do it with gold getting into parts of the machinery. Just you wait until Colin does a Roast podcast where he talks about production mills ramping up, testing, bits going everywhere etc. we would be foolish to ignore the evidence of past endeavours.

The only positive here to counter the above is that we aren't going this alone and Cooper Lemon seem, by comparison, fairly competent and determined to make progress.

I will caveat the above post with the fact B-Positive and others basically called me out as a deramper over at Oriole, for what I would call realistic posting. There is no point over promising and overexpectations - after my time here, I'd be a fool not to learn from the length of time it takes to get to production and the risks along the way.

I know potnak and JD would possibly call me a deramper, a cynic perhaps and NtM might say I could be a tad more positive but the ol' Bird does that to people unfortunately, especially in the cesspit that is the AIM market.

GLA,

Ben

B Positive, appreciate the breakdown of your figures and your calculations.

I think my caution is still valid though and would be guess at why we are underrated.

The 1.5 Moz attributed to us includes 400k to 700 additional exploration targets. I.e. we have found it yet.

It's an important caveat and the fact the exploration ounces are years away from being mined probably explains why they're not baked in yet.

Cheers

Ben

Just a dose of reality buythose. I'm sorry I'm not bouncing off the walls just yet. All just my opinion and of course every right to add some context or detail

The quote was "1.5mil oz is $7.5BILLION at current gold prices of $5,000". The implication here by using current gold prices is that we already have 1.5moz. The lack of context is misleading.

Thank you wasp for a civil reply - much appreciated. Agree 1.5m is likely for both North and South in the mid term. My view is if we targeted south first, it is likely to be the better target. You choose the best target to drill first.

24 holes in Mbe South. Minimum 13 in North.

86m at 1.36g/tonne at Mbe South is far longer a run of mineralisation than anything found this far at Mbe North, although 26 and 27 are very impressive holes at higher grades and who knows, we could find equally impressive runs in the final results at Mbe North.

Oriole have also clearly stated the exploration target for Mbe North will be 370-605 Koz. Even if we hit the absolute maximum level, we will still not reach 1.5moz at South and North combined, YET.

As I say, I think we will hit 1.5moz combined in phase 2 later on 2026. Patience is required, not hyperbole at this stage.

And stating realistic statements like it may take longer to get to 1.5Moz than the current drill programme because the company says so (their exploration prediction) does not need to be shot down.

All opinions should be welcome and civil debate over timings and milestones.

Good evening.

1.5moz IS the resource upside. We have 870k and will do probably for the next 3-6months.

Saying 1.5MOZ and implying we already have it is just misleading.

I am also a holder at Xtract -3-4 years ago it was assumed we have 2 million tonnes of copper based on good mineralisation lengths and positive statements.

The JORC came out and we had 1.3m

There's being positive but then there's recognising there is a risk ORR perceived to undeliver if we don't hit 1.5.

For the record I think we will easily hit 1.5m in FUTURE drilling, just not at Mbe North.

All my own personal opinion.

There are a lot of explorers in Africa it seems!!

I do think the 2025 AGM update was wholly disingenuous when it came to "we've got great news from our phase 1 clinical trial."

For those that had forgotten, plus the BoD, they released the following RNS on 1st July 2024(!). A successful clinical trial was conducted in 2023 and 2024. 2025 was all about clicking send on the final report - it's hardly a great achievement for the year.

2025 was the year of the failed tox study. They took back 737 and have done bu***** all with it.

Let's face - 2025 was not a year to be proud of.

RNS, 1st July 2024:

Positive Data from SDC-1801 Phase 1 Clinical Trial

Cambridge, UK, 1 July 2024 - Sareum Holdings plc (AIM: SAR), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing next-generation kinase inhibitors for autoimmune disease and cancer, is pleased to announce positive topline data from its Phase 1a clinical trial of SDC-1801, a dual TYK2/JAK1 kinase inhibitor being developed as a potential new therapeutic for a range of autoimmune diseases.

Following the dosing of the final cohort in the Multiple Ascending Dose stage of the trial, and review of the initial data by the Safety Review Committee, the Company reports that:

· Blood plasma levels of SDC-1801 significantly in excess of the predicted therapeutic exposure were achieved, with a half-life of between 17 and 20 hours observed, which suggests that once-daily dosing will be possible*

· No deaths or serious adverse events due to SDC-1801 were reported

· Although data remains blinded, there appear to be no significant changes in blood cell counts or increases in serum creatinine levels, which may be dose limiting side-effects of brepocitinib, currently the most advanced TYK2/JAK1 dual inhibitor

*Half-life is an estimation of the time it takes for an initial concentration of SDC-1801 to be reduced by half in the body.

The Company expects that further data, unblinded from drug/placebo recipients, including details of any mild or moderate adverse events and biomarkers of TYK2 and/or JAK1 inhibition, will be available in Q3 2024.

JD, you weren't proven right. All we were asking for was an RNS stating completed work and a timeline.

We have now got this. We can hold Colin to even great account because we expect confirmation of production by Q3 at the latest.

This RNS was absolutely needed - before the RNS, we were in the dark.

I'd also point out that we still have no news on Antimony in the past 4 months.

So you can get off your high horse. It was blatantly obvious that the next RNS would bring about a "Told you so" message. We're not 12. Completely unnecessary.

This is a positive step and hopefully because Colin has listened to us clamouring for greater clarity.

Hopefully he takes note and sees we need the same with Antimony.

Lastly, I hope he actually delivers to his timeline, because he hasn't ever done so before with mine building.

And I'll quote the big short to support another point:

"People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood."

Cameroon is a new frontier. We should be hopeful but also understand the risks associated with licencing new ground.

A touch of balance is useful when confronted by a constant barrage of positivity.

And GOH will be gone quick as a flash as soon as he achieved his exit point. I would bet good money on that.

What are you on on about.

Do more research - what on earth has that got to do with a comment about gold price used to value our gold?

"Although can/will be considered a producer" - you have no idea if that will happen or not. I see us being taken out way before then. If not, we'll be here for years.

But those, grow up. What is it with this place that you can't express a touch of realism to a chat board without some childish sarcasm being thrown back at you or the resident bull claiming you don't understand.

Full transparency, I have 7 million of these tucked in a tax free wrapper and have been here since 2020.

My comment was around the gold price, the huge swings we have and a need for caution when valuing our resource.

No condescension or criticism required.

There was a conversation last week around what price we should use to value our resources.

I said the following:

"don't think the current gold price should or will be used by any miners. It's bound to fall at some point. There's absolutely no way it stays above 4,500 per ounce.

The bibemi study used 3200. I think 3500 could be used but anything above 4000 just risks being too optimistic going forward."

The today dipped before 4,500 USD/ Oz.

Someone said that 5000 USD was being used in some scenarios.

The problem with valuing our ounces is they won't be mined in the next 3 years minimum.

We did use 3,200 in the study but anything more than say 3,500 is so risky to anyone. The price dropped from 5,500 to 4,500 like a stone. There's no way any prospective buyer will ever use anything over 4,000 USD for our resources. And even that is bold.

Let's be realistic and err on the side of caution here. We have a great resource but

A) there's no guarantee we have 1.5MOZ at Mbe after current drilling.

B) it's highly unlikely we'll meet the 1M milestone and get the 1m GBP payment as a high proportion needs to be in the indicated category.

C) We are still extremely unattractive due to ZERO mining infrastructure in Cameroon. This will come, in time, but valuations will always apply a further price discount due to Cameroon's junior status as a mining country. Australia, this is not.

I'm a bull here, but I'm also realistic.