Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Oooo thought I might have seen 10p this morning :) oh well back to bed..
That'll be when we announce 2MT....
... in November 2023.
I jest.
Losing patience at the moment but won't ever sell until the full picture is revealed. Frustrating as Quinton and the team can't realistically be this slow to put the assays together to form a resource estimate. Understandable why they're taking their time though with the copper price.
The pessimistic view is that AA or anyone else is not interested in what we have at current POC, so we have to wait for a higher POC. Some doubters may think that If what we have is substantial then why not release the MRE and model? It must be completed by now.
The optimistic view is that CB knows what we have, MRE completed but he wants the buy-out as high as possible and is sure POC will increase in 2023 so will wait until then.
It really wouldn't surprise me if any buy-out wasn't until Q4 2023 - when POC should be much higher?.
Confirmation of FB commercial production and RNS of income, should move the SP back to at least 5p IMHO, well before any buy-out news.
Why wait, POC may fall, massive recession ahead, least cost is first cost.
PS I dont wanna wait!
Very in-depth look at future copper situation
https://orocoresourcecorp.com/_resources/blog/Future-of-Copper.pdf
If we reached 20p for the sale based on current pricing of copper (forward view included) would you be looking back in two years time saying I wish CB hadnt sold and held for a higher price?
Fosters
You're missing the point.
It doesnt matter what we think POC will do next year or what we would prefer CB to do, its about what CB's thinks will happen (rightly or wrongly) to POC and is an explanation why there may be a delay in any buy-out.
CB has said many times what he thinks will happen to POC in 2023.
I'd be happy to take 20p now...but thats not the point.
I could do with some shares issued to me too.
Have to live on something CB.
Hi Andrew - CB may want to wait until Cu prices are higher but he can't stall for another year, claiming to be processing data. He'll have to release Footrot assays, RC and Ascot resource estimates and the pit/economic modelling fairly soon because he's said they are 'imminent' and it is information that has to be shared with the market.
Besides, everyone knows that copper prices are only going to go one way over the next few years and this should be factored into the valuation. I must confess that I'm not sure if that is in fact the case when valuing using the Valmin code, but that valuation methodology only applies to 80% of Bushranger and 0% of the other licences. I think CB has a decent hand to play and I really hope the delay is because he's in the midst of playing it! We need to get this over the line and preferably by Christmas!
My guess is that Colin hasn't been able to get any potential buyer to want to pay anything like what he was hoping for. Its not in Colin's nature to share the warts and all (despite him saying would). I really cant see us getting much more than around 10p... and thats if a buyer can be persuaded. Its not the duty of any buyer to solve the world's copper shortage problem so their first duty is to their own shareholders.
Steve
I agree CB can't wait a year before releasing MRE for RC and Ascot and I wasnt suggesting he would wait that long before releasing that data.
CB is a master of kicking the can down the road and he may well release some news and keep implying its coming to a conclusion. That may well be dragged out until October next year with CB implying "nearly there now" a few times next year
I hope its before October and it may be , but I bet many LTHs would not be that surprised if it didnt happen until Oct next year.
We should know how accurate that theory is by Q1 2023.
To clarify LTH = pre Bushranger shareholders
Anywhere between 10p and 20p will suit me, of course the more the better.
We need the news out!
It’s my own fault for averaging up Jan-Jun this year, as good news flowed in. So my average now is 5.5p. I just want the SP to recover to what I bought in at, + say 20%. If this was achieved by releasing Manica gold figures and/or the MREs, then I’d be more comfortable holding on for several months for the announcement of a sale of Bushranger. But I’m feeling nervous at being under water, and would really appreciate the SP improving a tad.
Andrew - Completely get where you are coming from. Even us medium-term holders (shortly after Bushranger) are familiar with CB's gift for can kicking. I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year.
As a general comment, it is actually quite depressing seeing shareholder valuations for the Bushranger project plummet as this drags out and the nerves jangle. Even if Xtract can only prove up 1.5mt of contain Cu Eq at this stage, it is obvious that it will continue to grow and may end up many multiples of that. I therefore don't understand why shareholders would be happy to take 10p. What is the point in investing in juniors that are looking for big discoveries, where the odds are perhaps 100-1, if a win only pays out at 10-1?
CB has talked often about now being the time of the junior miner because the majors haven't invested enough in discovery... he better bloody prove it by getting a lot more than 10p per share for Bushranger! The stress of the wait has cost me nearly that much in vodka!!
I'd, personally, be joyous at 10p. It's been a long time coming waiting for Bird the return shareholder value.
No disrespect but He's not getting any younger, how much longer can he kick the can down the road if he wants to see a sale here....
Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale.
" I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year."
That's about 4 weeks left then. In theory, we should get news prior to ed of the year.
In the half yearly report RNS CB stated that :
….. will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022.
AND
(For RC). The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022.
If that RNS timescales (not interview) are correct then in theory we should get some news re Ascot and RC in the next 4 weeks.
"Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale"
You may well be right
IMHO CB will keep releasing bits of news, supplemented by his usual very bullish interviews all slowly being a bit more positive and hopefully showing more progress as we crawl slowly to a buy-out in late 2023.
Well, that's my most likely outcome.
Happy to be proved wrong and we get THAT rns in next 2 months... but I doubt it.
.
IDD Andrew, certainly based off Bird's track record here in the past.
Be interesting how hear how he mitigates, what most of us believe, the fact that we are way off his statements regarding total cu tonnage.
I'm still hopeful we will have that info by year end..
Gixxer - Given the cost of the licence, exploration costs, 2 years of money tied up and the high risk... 10p feels like a poor return on investment. That said, I can understand why people just want to get out now. I really hope CB can turn this around and soon.
looks like i am going to have to put my january holiday back a bit
Been in here 8+ years Steve, and averaged down heavily off the back of an interview given by Bird when JN left. He promised openness and Transparency (no matter what). IMO we've just no seen any of that - For the most part it's been a nightmare of dilution with Bird buying his next pet project.
I'm still kicking myself that I did not escape when we hit 9p but that's on me getting carried away with talk of world class cu finds. (I think only JDAU, from the LTH's, sold there - Well played)
I count myself lucky getting 10p TBH many have not been able to average down and have lost big here.
Steve
I agree that 10p is a very poor return for post Bushranger holders, but not for those who invested prior to Bushranger. Most VLTH would have an average sub 2p or even sub 1p and likely millions of shares as this was so sub 1p for a year and sub 2p for 2 years.
I can assure you there are a few VLTH here who would be millionaires at 10p buy-out :)
I havnt changed my view on buy-out value, still 15 to 20p, but I have changed my view on timescales for completion.
Gixxer - I feel your frustration and pain! I also averaged down the last time we were at this level but decided to sell a few last week to put elsewhere.
Andrew - I know some LTH's will be delighted to take 10p and a large payday. Regardless, if the Bushranger project only delivers a 10p per share return, the risk to reward ratio was terrible. Let's hop CB proves the doubters wrong and that the 'time of the junior miner' really is here.