Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The fact is, if anyone bought or sold this, or any other, share on the strength of what someone wrote on this bulletin board then they might as well have just put their money on Sad Ken in the 3:30 at Chepstow on the basis that Dave in the pub said it was a dead cert.
It looks to me that "the market" (whatever that is) doesn't believe the minimum NPV of Bushranger is 7.8p. Looks to me that "the market" is implying a reasonable chance of Bushranger delivering no shareholder value at all. Or at least not in the near-term, anyway.
If AA decline the right to buy, and no other suitors are forthcoming, that would leave XTR with no choice but to write off the project or develop the project itself. Clearly the prospect of that outcome reduces the "minimum" value of 7.8p to something like 1p due to the burden of risk.
Go easy, I'm not trying to pick a fight. Nothing I'd like more than for this to fly.
I don't think sentiment weighs that heavily on the SP. I think FaceValue01 got it right in their post at 21:35 yesterday (Weds).
How much, if any, dilution will there be through capital raising before longer term value is realised? I think the mounting evidence of longer term value is becoming increasingly irrefutable. What is in doubt is the short term value if capital needs to be raised to continue the extensive drilling; which leads to a game as to when you buy in, not if.
It does explain why the same people (aliases) appear at moments of sharp changes in SP and make a lot of noise.
The problem is that a lot of their waffle actually plays out. Maybe they just reflect the voice of the herd and most people in AIM are just day-trading the life out of hot stocks.
Like all the wise people on here say, the best thing to do is ignore the noise and wait patiently for the company to deliver something tangible that will lead to a material re-rate.
That's easier than done though isn't it.
And in the meantime you know that someone has just made a 10% margin in a day off the back of all that noise. It's their job I guess; me I'm just an amateur and have to work for a living.
I bought £3500 several years ago at around 3.5p that I watched dwindle to £00s. Like you I mentally wrote it off. I also topped up but just after the recent placement, not before, so at 4.5p. I must admit I was more naive a few years about XTR (and AIM) than I am now. I bought on a whim. I now hold on solid belief that there is huge upside from 8p. I'm sure there will be ups and downs but i doubt with the volatility it has seen in the past.
that's how I got into XTR. a few years ago it was held by some micro cap funds I was looking into where I chose to buy a selection of the companies rather than the whole fund. that included Sigma Capital, Fevertree, Next Fifteen, Blue Prism and Learning Technologies so not a bad bunch!
I've been a shareholder (and lurker on these boards for 4 years). I'm in for 100k shares averaging about 4p. I pretty much wrote off the investment when the sp was lurking around a penny and I topped up at 4.5p just after the latest round of funding.
So what I'm struggling with is investing more. I feel lucky to be in profit honestly. By luck rather than judgement I could say.
On the one hand the latest find seems valuable but on the other... maybe i have been spooked by hibo or humbo or whatever his name is. I don't want to be a monkey or a sheep, whatever each entails. But I can't help feel that sentiment is the impediment. What comes after the 3rd drill? How much more fund raising would be needed to progress? What happens if AA don't exercise their option? Is the information released so far reliable?
Appreciate these are all questions I can, have or will research myself but I just wondered what you knowledge folks thought.
Basically, why isn't this higher?
And please excuse my own stupid name; I never expected I would post anything.