Tullow Oil Share Chat (TLW)

Looking at the share price, I can't help but think collars and lifting are beating RC not shifting.

And imagine what would happen when they do buy! The business case for TLW is oil prices are going up and I'm not sure RC has insider information on what Trump is thinking.

If Insiders don't have insider info should that stop you buying - while they feel paralysed? Not like they have sold either.

Loon,

How can you see my posts when you stated you had blocked me ?

The insiders are not buying - so that says more than all the waffle on here about collars and liftings :)

JMAX

We are aware!!

Why do you constantly repeat yourself

It’s a sign of insanity

RG is at a huge loss, and the other directors have never bought in significant quantities :)

See a certain poster is still announcing his greatest hits.

A couple more weeks and that's 3 cargos lifted at $120 - $140. Looking forward to H1 report in August for the first time in 6 years, with revenue and cash flow up earnings to debt ratio will be much improved if this keeps up they could be under 1x before the years end. Looks like Ghana got the thumbs up from the IMF with over 4% growth so hopefully an arrangement for that $200M should be cemented soon too, I would also argue any agreement made with Ghana on this requires an RNS.

We now have more comments from President Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House.

Trump says US forces may need to hit Iran again ⁠and Tehran is ⁠begging to ⁠make a ⁠deal. A new US attack would happen in the coming days if an agreement ⁠is not reached.

“Well, I mean, I’m ⁠saying two or three ⁠days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period ‌of time, because we can’t let them have a new ‌nuclear weapon.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/19/iran-war-live-trump-says-iran-attack-postponed-at-request-of-gulf-allies?update=4586221

@xx good luck and your knowledge has been appreciated.

All the very best of luck xxnjr

I still think tlw has a way to go on this current journey of recovery

However time will tell 😎

It only took Xx about a year to see the light :)

Keep in touch @xxnjr you are a very knowledgeable person thank you for your advice

I've sold all my Tullow earlier today as the other companies I'm invested in like APA, GALP, M&P, Seplat are completely unhedged to the upside, have production growth and/or significant exploration upside. If oil is $90 they make loads of cash. If oil is $65 they still make loads of cash. 3 of them return a min of 60% FCF to shareholders. It was fun here recently. GLA!

Why would anyone expect a quick victory over Iran ? Just look at their history, the terrain of the country and for them it is existential.

Mr J Max...You state if it was a proper conflict the oil price would be higher....There was plenty in world wide oil reserves at the start of the war but nobody saw this crisis going on for almost 3 months so the reserves are being drain fast ..

The Iranian IRGC have set up a system where each Oil Tanker receives an XL Spreadsheet which has to be filled and then a charge is issued on each tanker for possibly around 2 Million dollars to get through... though a country not classed as an enemy such as China can get a discount..

So I would describe it as a hostage Style Crisis involving Oil Tankers rather than a traditional World War 2 Conflict which you imagine...Iran has a very strong hand here which basically has dumfounded the Americans

Agreed, trumpet is just playing the markets now, and not doing very well

If this was a genuine conflict then oil would much higher - wake up :)

There are two sets of thinking. One that of a New York property dealer who wants to get a deal. The other Arab politicians whose only paces are slow and glacial. The only card that the Iranians have is the Gulf of Hormuz they will not give it up lightly.

The Iranian oil wells are such that the last time they were shut in the flow rate halved when they were reopened. As such if they go under, they will do their best to ensure that if they are selling half the oil, it will be for twice the price so expect general oil infrastructure disruption.

Their only winning position is to hold out until November and get Donald to be reigned in by the US voters.

One other interesting issue after the Houties closed the Red Sea even years after the event shipping volumes have still collapsed whether from alternative routes being established, punitive insurance rates, or owners not wanting to risk their ships. Even if this dispute gets resolved, the mines removed, the bottle jam released I still think shipping volumes will not recover and the African oil premium will not only remain but improve.

Respect the Orange man. He saved Tullow by attacking Iran. Now he is supressing oil prices by lying. Tullow incurs hedging expenses on a daily basis but only exposed to oil prices on the four days over bill of lading on a cargo. The impact is that by constantly telling the market that war is over and the Iranians are on the phone he is pushing oil prices and therefore hedging expense lower. Tullow have been incredibly fortunate in their shipping dates even hitting a maximum divergence between Brent Future and Platts dated Brent on 02/04/26. The May cargo goes 08/06/26 and so we will get the high June prices whilst suffering the lower May hedge expenses. Currently my hedge expense mode with PDB prices up until 11/05/26 is showing an average PBD for swap cost calculation of $107.98. I am hoping that June Cargo price hits $230.

All hail the Orange Man

…but after an initial reaction, Brent is about the same as this time yesterday. Suggests to me the market is waking up to the fact that he is just spouting nonsense to calm the markets but nothing really has changed. He can drop all the threats he wants but he clearly doesn’t want to start bombing again and resume this increasingly unpopular war at home. I can’t see a resolution here unless someone makes massive concessions, making them the ‘loser’ of the war. Neither will want to admit to that and so it’ll drag on.

In summary the pricing follows a critical path analysis. ie its priced as at the date of arrival not departure. My feeling and assumption is the Ghana price at 03/07/26 will be influenced by the Gulf price as at 19/05/26 as both cargoes will arrive in a major market simultaneously due to the distances involved. If the Gulf is closed as at 19/05/26 it will influence the 03/07/26 price in Ghana.

However my real interest is the August cargo we have 54 days until we hit the target date. In August we should have 2 cargos shipped jubilee and TEN. If the Gulf is closed until then we will have a double pay day.

Hi tonyb33 - Thx for the explanation which has a certain logic. The only thing is that if the straits were to somehow miraculously be re-opened in the 6 or 7 wks before 3rd of July then the price of Dated Brent itself would probably drop from the elevated levels you are anticipating. Not saying that is going to happen as Iran's powers that be are willing to endure a lot of pain. And the longer this goes on the more critical oil supply becomes. I'm just content oil will be probably be in the 90's for a while!

Let me explain my reasoning

On 03/07/26 when the Tullow cargo ships the price paid will be the market price. The market price will consist of the Platts Brent Price plus a West African Premium paid for the reduced risk of picking up the oil in a low risk zone.

The price paid will be determined by the market ie sum of alternative buyers and sum of alternative sellers. Now an alternative buyer who would be sitting in Europe and wanted delivery on 15th July 2026 would had to have purchased a cargo from Ghana on 03/07/26 or from the Gulf on 19/05/26 or 3-4 days earlier if the bottom of the tanker (in the Gulf) had been heavily fouled due to being at anchor in a warm water port for three months.

So, due to the location of Ghana and a major market for fuel ie Europe and the distance to the competition ie the Gulf, the price paid on 03/07/26 will be influenced by whether the gulf is open or closed on 19/05/26. Regardless of the ultimate destination of the tanker and regardless of the state of the tanker picking up from Ghana. The fact that this date has passed means that the price of oil sold in Ghana on 03/07/26 will command a premium whether or not the Gulf resumes traffic in the period between now and 03/07/26.

Hi tonyb33 - it's always good to have someone super-engaged and uber-bullish :) But I just do not understand the mental gymnastics employed in the argument below that has been trotted out a few times recently.....

"3. We also know that it is physically impossible to get less than $130 a load for these two cargoes because there are only 12 days to Europe from Ghana but 40+ days from the gulf to Europe (even more really because of the bottom fouling from waiting in a warm water port for 3 months) So the June Tullow cargo leaving on 03/07/26 could get to Europe faster than a Gulf cargo leaving today as such that June cargo is going to get a very high price."

Even if cargos went to Europe the logic employed above doesn't really make much sense given how cargos are priced. But since 75% of cargos go to China and very few if any go to Europe it hardly seems relevant. As for "bottom fouling" that's really scrapping the bottom of the barrel! :) None of the tankers that visit Jubilee have been laid up in the Persian Gulf recently.

Tony, I love your confidence in terms of share price appreciation in the next few months, fully loaded here for that 50p target, if hit will recoup most of my losses over the last 35 years of gambling, sorry meant to say investing..

“But an even lengthier delay to reopening could see oil prices pushed toward $150 per barrel and staying elevated for the rest of the year.

Should reach 20p which looked long away only few months ago! Then hoping for mid 20's!

All users with ‘happy’ are basic shorters. Happyinvestor etc etc. Filtered

Ask Trump or even JMAX, both experts, sorry shouldn't use that term about JMAX as EX means hasbeen and spurt is a drip under pressure, JMAX is neither

In Brent Oil Futures there are 83 paper barrels of oil to each physical one. In addition its a contract to deliver oil 10 weeks from now. The orange man is waking from his China jet lag and about to go kinetic again. However the reality is the physical barrels are steadily dropping. The rearrangement with Ghana means that the final 2 cargos for H1 2026 Tullow will hit 08/06/26 and 03/07/26 we should see very high prices. The reality is that there is such a disproportion of time between a cargo from the Gulf and a cargo from Ghana that even of a cargo left the gulf today the cargo leaving Ghana on 03/07/26 would get to Europe faster (and hence command a premium price0 as such H1 2026 Tullow numbers will be spectacular. We should get guidance on 10th June.

Here we go backwards again...

Kinda feel that Jmax has a point about TLW, it's purely being left hanging out to dry to pay it's debt...

But Tonybb makes some very interesting points about future sales and shipments but all too technical for me to understand.

Just get me to 24p and I'm taking a small loss and leaving

Oil price might be sensitive to new Iran proposal.

Also the big boys made a killing on silver crashing last week and oil going up.

Time for them to switcharoo...

They are making money in the direction they choose..

Absolute nonsense talk about a 52 wk high

fact is bar - one week in June 25, anyone who has bought in the last 15 months is now at the very least at break even or positive and LTH have in quite a few cases averaged down as well. trajectory the last 4 weeks tell where this is going All .i.m.o.

The question is have you made money in this stock since your predictions? We are all here to increase our net worth not to become mystic meg. I bought in December and have more than doubled my money so that's all that counts in my book. You can be mystic meg and be down by 50% here in the long run. That commands zero respect.

Who has a more accurate long term posting record than me - let's get a wager on the go :)

JMAX is the third or fourth most accurate poster on this board. He deserves respect.

400,

If you or anyone else would like a legally binding wager on what you have just posted the let's get it on - as I cant lose.

Ps I bought FRES at about £6 and sold some over £43.00 :)

US will possibly resume its war on Iran ‘within the next 24 to 48 hours’

It appears that the US will resume its war on Iran in the next day or two, says Mohamad Elmasry, professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies.

This is because Trump “has got a lot of different people in his ear”, including Netanyahu and “very hawkish people” within his own administration, Elmasry told Al Jazeera.

“He hasn’t gotten the kind of capitulation that he’s wanted from the Iranians and he expected from the Iranians,” said Elmasry, adding that Trump also “expected negotiations to go differently” and had high expectations during his recent summit in China with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Elmasry said that he believes it would be wise for Trump to end the war at this point, given that it has been “a real disaster for him” and for the US on a political and economic standpoint.

However, he is unlikely to do so “because Trump cannot go back at this point to the American people with a convincing victory declaration”.

Due to Ghana releasing their cargo data

https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

Tullow's May 2026 cargo is now confirmed to ship 08/06/26. So this will be the new date point for the May 2026 cargo price.

Well here are the next Tullow cargo price predictions for June board bragging rights. Or as I see it observational credibility.

@TonyB33 $230

@AndyCM $172

@TDDW $142

@JMAX $75

As of this morning 18/05/26 July Brent Futures is $111.2 Google Gemini is giving the Platts Brent Premium of $6.95 and I am adding the West Africa premium from the 28/04/26 conference call of $12. That gives us $130.15.

A further interesting piece of data due to Mr Trump supressing oil prices my swap cost model with released Platts Dated Brent prices up to 11/05/26 is working on an average oil price of only $107.98. This is what most Tullow Investors do not understand a lower oil price over the period when a cargo is not being shipped actually makes Tullow a lot of money in hedge expense savings.

Over the weekend Iran fired a drone at Abu Dhabi’s nuclear power station so expect things to get a little hotter this week. I need about $10 a day to hit my forecast, all to play for. If anyone else would like to make a guess feel free to do so.

@xxnjr Can you please look out of your window and check the tanker status. One thing my numbers are showing me to hit the cargo forecasts from the 28/04/26 Full Year Results Presentation the three new wells that are going to kick in shortly with an extra 20,000 BPD are going to be needed to reduce the number of days between cargo pick ups so we can hit 13 Jubilee Cargos before YE 31/12/26.

Ghana have released their Cargo data for TEN and Jubilee for early 2026.

https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

The actual data is largely in line with my models with one exception. The 2025 sequence had Ghana taking an extra load in the quarter months (Mar Jun Sept Dec etc). However, the released data shows that rather than book the Ghana cargo as the second cargo in March 2026 they have actually booked it in second cargo February 2026.

This has the following consequences

1. Instead of booking a cargo on 21/02/26 when the price was $71.28 a barrel Tullow shipped their cargo on 06/03/26 at $95.74 a barrel. That’s worth an extra pure profit of $21,721,287 for Tullow

2. The sequence now confirms that Tullow got the 02/04/26 cargo when the premium of Platts Dated Brent over Brent futures blew out to over $40 a barrel and hit $139 a barrel (@xxnjr please note) This was the record cargo price mentioned in the 28/04/26 conference call

3. That also means that Tullow also had the 30/04/26 load at $130 a barrel.

4. This will mean that Ghana will now get the second cargo in May ie the forthcoming 27/05/26 cargo.

5. This means the May cargo for Tullow will now be shipped around 08/06/26. In which case my estimate of $230 is actually looking better

6. My estimate for the Feb TEN cargo was two days out (My model 14/02/26) actual 16/02/26 at a price of $69.77 a barrel

Tullow have hit the Jackpot this year in terms of cargo timings on each month they have hit the premium spot I feel their luck is in this year.

Interesting KOS Q1 Analysts Questions

• Mark Wilson (Jefferies): Asked about the impact of derivative cash losses and future hedging strategy. Shah stated that Q2 will see more physical exposure to oil prices and that hedging will focus on downside protection for 2027.

Note the 2025 Tullow Accounts only show 7,500 Collars for H2 2026 Floor $58.97 Cap $74.88

If they have followed the example of KOS It could be that Tullow has followed through with its full 60% hedging or it could be that they have reduced the upside hedging and will be open to benefit from higher oil prices in H2. One to look out for in the AGM on 10 June 2026.  

….TLW, the obvious hedge against the fallout, a no brainer!

FDM,

Please can you tell this to the directors, insiders and the IIs who are not buying shares.

Had a few beers boys, never mind 50p. Holding for much more. Like RR 70p going to £13+ in a very short time. Chill. This is a dream share I think.

I am feeling more confident with TLW every day! 50p is very possible in a couple of months!

GLA!

Full article on CNBC

Q: Still, a month or two more would mean a lot of economic pain.

Singh: I was just in Texas. I heard directly that the most that could be expected from the Permian Basin, for example, in terms of additional output, is something like 250,000 barrels per day. That’s just a tiny fraction of the shortfall in the Strait of Hormuz. [The oil market may be missing as much as 100 million barrels a week, according to some estimates.]

The situation really is becoming dire. I think we have a lingering risk premium on Brent oil, and it’s going to be in the range of $80 to $100 a barrel for the foreseeable future.

Mark,

I take it you follow Simply Wall Street :)

I do watch it but wouldn’t take it word for word

"Would you like to have a legally binding wager regarding my TLW trading profits ?"

Take jmax upon it.

He has been posing as a bigun on fres for ages - giving it large and pretending after every big move he knew it was going to happen in advance.

Sold at the top every time. Blah blah blah

Funny enough he did the same wager boast on Friday with me. Trouble is I took him up on it...so he had to hide on here all afternoon yesterday! Couldn't show his face after I called him out on his bull

Truth is that he is hiding in his mums basement - I think he is 12

Sorry jmax,

"When it comes to having a wager on my trading position - I can't lose :)"

I forgot to mention today that you are a r.e.t.a.r.d Tullow shorter...

Also you have to take the mark to market move in the Bonds which clearly shows the enterprise value is moving up.

TLW has nearly 5x'd from its November bottom [ :-) ]. If the bonds had stayed where they were, but share price moons, then that would have been a sign that the share price was being manipulated. What we are seeing is a company slowly working through its debt pile. Not out of the woods yet but clearly hearing Skylarks.

Lenin,

TLW is still about 40% off the 52 week high.

It is quite simple here - insiders are not buying.

Mr J Max...you state Tullow is only 16 pence after 2 months of Oil being around 100 Dollars a barrel....but it depends on how you look at the share price performance....Here is a random mix of Oil Companies big and small in relation to share price performance over the last month

BP down over 2%

Shell down around 5 %

Serica up 7%

Harbour up 9 %

Union Jack Oil up 28 %

TULLOW UP ..> 44 % <

This is within your chosen timeline....

I see 50p in 2027 as conservative for the following reasons

1. The cargos will now be leaving at $100+ prices from now until at least September if the embargo goes on another 30 days think December

2. The early termination of the IFRS16 lease will result not only in lease interest being severely reduced but the early termination will release accelarated lease interest from earlier years resulting in a negative interest charge.

3. The oil field depreciation is generated from a comparison of current year PV as against prior year PV less barrels sold. The fact that this years PV will be raised by higher oil prices plus longer leases (the leases were extended by 4 years) means that the depreciation charges will be reduced.

4. As the oil majors start building funds they will be looking for new reserves that are not in the gulf Tullow will be a target

5. The refinancing agreement has a built in cash sweep for 15/9/26 which will reduce senior debt by all cash surplus to operational requirements reducing debt plus interest

6. I expect an EPS of 5-10p currently oil companies on the UK market trade at an average of 19.6 EPS

TDDW, not saying it will happen, but you never know in this game when the market starts to believe in recovery of a once dead stock which TLW was before the completion of the re-financing and the Iran War bought on by our friend Mr Trump, you only have to look at Saga, it was around 250 around Dec 2025, by March 2026, it was over 550. Have a good weekend...

Stockbuster - so if TLW hit 50p in Q2 2027 you would be like - Blady Tony and his 1 boat every 13.5 days? Seems a little harsh.

J🤡

The 😴😴😴😴😴😴😴

I hope you are bang on Tony, as I have set my exit price of price 50p by year end...got jittery yesterday, so unfortunately let some of my holding go at around 16p at a loss on resent buys bought around the spike @ 😕 19p

One of the principal sources of revenue for Ghana is gold. Gold rose in value by 70% in 2025. It is projected to rise a lot further over the next three years. Hopefully these extra revenues combined with the rising oil price will trigger Ghana to sort out their debt with Tullow.

Great news for Tullow Oil. Thanks

Https://mobile.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/features/This-economic-recovery-in-Ghana-is-unprecedented-2033181

Deutsche Welle News is reporting that Oil Levels will be critical by early June ..The Link is below

https://youtu.be/oEUc2cFuuH8?si=5tdN2OYHDTScasHB

…. It really depends on how emotionally disturbed they are, and how vacuous theirs lives seem to be, this BB is like an open asylum a lot of the time. GLLTH.

I guess that I will never understand why people devote so much time to ramping a share up or equally the time spent deramping them to. Are those that do this so narcissistic that they believe that their opinion can really make a difference to a share price. This is always going to puzzle me. We have the opportunity to all help each other and to share information in an informative way that could make us all richer i . However for some reason these boards often look like chewing gum for the eyes!! To me that's a real shame.

Good luck to everyone that is invested here. I hope that you are all able to read around the noise in these boards so that you can make your owned informed decisions as to what is best for you :-)

Tlw futures looking bright and market is forward looking expecting substantial rerate

Holding for long!

It gets even better during the Trump meeting a series of tankers left the gulf for China. One of the reasons for the subdued oil price recently was the large releases of oil from Chinas stockpile. China knew it was getting a top up exactly at the same time Trump would be there. China Russia Saudi Arabia Brazil all key players in the BRICs consortium. The objective of BRICS is to raise the living standards of their countries from subsistence levels. These countries supply the West with their commodities. However manipulation by western commodity markets results in them being paid marginally above a rate that keeps their population in abject poverty. The objective of BRICS is to get around the Western commodity markets and western currency manipulation. This is to be achieved via pricing commodities in alternative currencies to the USD, and developing fairer commodity exchanges which are based on actual ownership of the commodity in question.

A clear example of this can be seen in the current oil price. Even with 20% of the world's oil supply cut of for 11 weeks the July Brent Future is lower than it was 2 months ago. The reason for this is the 83 to 1 ratio of paper barrels to physical barrels of oil in this market. So market speculation and manipulation not actual supply and demand regulate the price given to producers.

Iran is going to receive something for their largess in releasing oil this week. China knew it was coming in advance that was why it was making vast profits and political influence by selling its oil reserves that were purchased at depressed oil prices into a hungry market. The BRICS are playing a longer game. It is not going to end well for the USA when all of those Petro dollars start coming home.

The Oil Market may have been quite this week because the Politicians/ World Stock markets etc...had been hoping that China would save us from this incoming disaster ( unless you hold energy shares ) during Trump's visit from saving us from the World running out off Oil ...But why would they ???.... Unlike our dumb Politicians they understand the concept of preparing for these Geo Political/ Commodity Crisis and stored way much more Oil than anyone else when the price was cheap and will be able to sell it back onto the market when the price goes parabolic...

Well done China ....Shame on our Political Class ...

If Bill Murray reads this board he'll be making daily su*cide attempts in an effort to stop reliving the same repetitive nonsense day after day......😱

Makes no sense that! You borrowed a chunk at 5p and sold. Now the SP is 20p and you're telling the IIs: "grain of salt, those where so hopeless so take some mere compensation and I'll throw in a couple of beers." I'm afraid, you'd need to stick in equity equivalent. But you're right, there's nothing to worry about, they should wait until the SP is back to 39p.

Anton,

You keep repeating this post from 2018. Why don't you wake up and look at my posting and trading from spring 2021 - where I made a great profit. Furthermore, when you were buying at 37p - I was calling sell.

I don't know about that ... I'd say some on here might say you're the biggest loser.

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,992

Price: 253.80

RE: Breakout day?16 May 2018 13:40

By my standards I am deep in TLW - but I am long term and I am looking for 4.50minimum. For those who are prepared to wait this will come good - and we have so much of the black stuff still in the ground.

**** Queue the usual responses about CPS, who called the sell, who has the best posting record, is your average 19, etc. ****

Anton,

You are the loser in this game no one else.

You are so naive that you thought 'shorters will burn'. Now why would the big boys work against each other .....

TUWOY ADR breaks out on 1 yr chart.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TUWOY