Member Info for Lenin

The EIA have just released another big inventory draw for last week at 6.088 Million Barrels which easily out beat the expected draw ( Yesterday the API showed a much smaller figure but this may have been effected by the storm in the Gulf ) .....These short traders must have completely lost their marbles.... because if they were going to pile in with massive short bets you would have thought they would have done when there was a big glut off Oil NOT when the Drawdown rates are at historical highs ..

Many Thanks for your article Tony B 33 ...I am thinking the short selling of Brent / WTI must end any day now because if these Crude Oil benchmarks continued to be shorted lower then the situation would very likely turn into the biggest short Squeeze in history...

Yes ...No one could say for certain what the future direction is but the Oil Price Futures traders are banking on traffic returning to normal in the Strait very fast....They do not take in to account well over a Billion Plus Barrels off missing Oil which is still increasing every hour despite the rather limited flow off traffic through the Strait...

It is possible this could lead to a Historically large Short Squeeze which would give the Oil Price a sudden spike upwards...

Mr Selllowbuyhigh ....On the Tullow share price performance...I perfectly understand that people want the price to be higher but it has gone back to around the level of where it was at the start of the war which is in turn related to Oil Price Futures......But the main thing to note here is so have most other Oil Companies in relation to their share price.....This makes a nonsense off the frequent post on here that Tullow is just a debt Zombie because if that was true the share price would be completely diverging downwards from the most off the other major Oil companies...

Mr J Max......Yesterday You had posted a misleading message that the Strait is Open and ships are passing freely .........Had you bothered to do some research the actual situation is different from the picture that you paint ....Basically the Strait is divided into three at the main crossing point....The Northern Part in effect is closed to most traffic unless the Ships have been given approval by the Iranian IRGC....Now the thing to understand here is that the IRGC only awnsers to the Supreme Leader but NOT to the elected Iranian Government....So what that means in effect is that the Foreign Minister for Iran could make a statement that the Strait is open but the hardline IRGC can act independently and shoot at vessels even if there is a ceasefire .....As the insurance to pass through is prohibitely expensive this in effect means that many ships / tankers etc . remain stuck inside and there is a reluctance or refusal for some major tanker operators to enter the Strait......The middle Part is mined and at the moment it is not known how long it would take to clear the mines but this can be a very time consuming operation...Only the southern part on the Oman side is open and ships have been passing through but Iran does not recognize this .....Iran are in current talks with Oman to charge fees after the 60 Day period but what this means for future Hormuz traffic is unknown at this stage though very likely it would mean future tanker traffic will be lower because off the increased risk premium...The futures Oil Market ( which in turn has had a direct influence on the Tullow share price ) is betting on a quick return to normality but because off the situation mentioned above this looks very doubtful..

The Tullow share price at the moment reflects the June Futures Paper Market in Oil in which full flow off Hormuz is expected to return very quickly but as the video below suggests it may take much longer than many short traders except

https://youtu.be/0C7D8ZLCtwM?is=awQul05FxdmBHkUf

( My final message for today) Mr J Max...I have not said The Term Parabolic is mean less at all

Trumps recent comment off let the Oil flow is turning out rather different as the Al Jazeera article states below

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/economy/2026/6/22/shipping-stalls-in-strait-of-hormuz-after-iran-declares-key-waterway-shut

I have not made a prediction.....I was explaining the very general circumstances of why it is possible for the share price to go Parabolic but I did say only under certain circumstances...as you have obviously never heard off the concept....Go and take a look at the NASDAQ or something then you will learn something.....

I am unable to awnser what would be a parabolic share price because that is a subjective question and it would mean a different thing to each share holder ...I can only speak for myself but if it went well over 100 pence I would consider that Parabolic but another Shareholder would give a different awnser .....Off course if it did that it is based on Sentiment not the fundamentals off the companies but I think over in the USA at the moment as an example there are a number off companies in the A I sector that have gone Parabolic but they may end up crashing back down as they are unconnected to the fundamentals..

Under what realistic circumstances can the share price goes Parabolic....Well let's say for example the Oil Price went to 150 plus Dollars ...Many company shares In the Footsie etc.. would go down as they would be on the wrong side off the Oil Price move ...But obviously the Oil Companies would see a higher movement in their share prices depending on the size off the company...So as an example a company like BP would go higher but not as fast as Tullow because more money is needed to move the BP share price...But it would depend on the length off time that the Oil Price remained high ..It can happen...Off course it works both ways ... Tullow falls faster if the Oil Price was to come back down more quickly ..

Mr J MAX...You did not read the post properly....I posted Under certain situations sentiment is more important than fundamentals ... Tullow is a high Beta share so Tullow is in the class off shares where this is possible to happen...But only under the right circumstances...

Mr Lon Se1960 ...You ask how high could the share price realistically reach .... Nobody can give an accurate awnser but in a Nutshell... Parabolic.. provided the right circumstances allow....That is because assuming this was to happen sentiment takes over any actual what the share price should be worth in relation to fundamentals.....As to wether it can happen at a guess I would say the next 6 months is as good a chance as any as the ultimate events playing out in the Middle East and the effect on the Oil Price are still unknown ...

Iran has reclosed the Strait of Hormuz as they say the USA is violating the M O U by allowing Israel to continue their war in Southern Lebanon...The. M O U is breaking down and the Oil Futures Traders who just assumed Oil production would very soon recover too its Pre Crisis level are about to be taught a nasty lesson

Second Message......Just a thought on the video I have reposted below......If a Oil Tanker Owner had a valid claim for insurance with the IRGC but they decided you do not would you try to pursue your claim. ???? I mean would you pursue your claim if you took out insurance with the Mafia ???

https://youtu.be/Yy6aDse30_Q?is=6klRCjj4VR7wgvNE

So the M O U came into effect with supposed free movement of shipping through the Strait for 60 Days .. HOWEVER it is definitely not that simple unless the ships sign up for a shipping insurance policy which is controlled by the Iranian IRGC

and is fiendishly complex as the video below explains

https://youtu.be/Yy6aDse30_Q?is=6klRCjj4VR7wgvNE

Here Is A Fnancial interview On A Near Term Oil Price Correction As China Could Soon Reenter The

Market

https://youtu.be/kMMKcmG2lAI?is=4PXnReCoktnYrvr-

Mr J Max main pre occupation in life seems to be just to take Pot Shots at shareholders etc.and their post all day long which he does not approve off ....And like a very vocal child in the playground he always wants to have the last word....If he is an adult then I reckon he is a very immature one ....

Mr Tony B 33 ....Just to ask ...From my understanding if Cushing goes below 20 Million Barrels is that not supposed to trigger a price correction upwards to stop WTI leaving the USA ..??

Apparently Al Jazeera are reporting there are Two German minesweepers in the Red Sea making their way to the Strait... HOWEVER...The Iranians are saying clearing the mines should be an Iranian Matter as they will control the Strait with Oman and be responsible for care of the Strait and eventually charging the fees ....The intended consequences off how this could all play out is simply not being priced in by the Oil Market Traders...