Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Haha 😂 the irony of those retorts, mate you post nothing but infantile garbage. If I was to do a straw poll here, you still wouldn't accept that reality. You are the ghost at the feast, the un-flushable king-kong turd of this BB. The troll queen, people would pay for you to disappear you're that popular... but hey 39p genius, let's get t-shirts with all your greatest hits on. I can't wait for tomorrow, what will it be... greatest most accurate poster of all time may be? x

JMAX is what he is, nobody besides him understands why he posts here every single day posting his greatest hits. Insiders not buying, Zombie, gas blag, 39p etc. Ignore that a zombie by definition never pays down it's principle debt even though it's fallen from a peak of $4.2B to $1.35B today and likely falling faster right now than forecasted. RG has bought both bonds and shares in significant sums and the CFO just bought a tranche... But why are they not buying more, Gas had to reported when commercialised and boepd is standard for all oil and gas producers when they have a mix. He's queen of the straw man arguments, no substance to what he says ever... just a kid with a stick poking passers by. But 39p however truly other wordly incite.

Let the fundamentals silence him in time, share price is just a snapshot of right here right now, it won't be here forever up or down DYOR and decide for yourself.

What does that even mean? I gave you the industry standard and you are still arguing over it. You are trying to downplay production, which normally I'm onboard with as I've been highly critical of Tullow's production performance previously.

However they beat the top end in Q1 and admitted in the investor presentation they are having to choke back the flow on JP-4 and JP-5. With 3 wells and a water injector due online 2026 they have a higher than 50% chance of beating the base case, that's not specific to the geology that's any successful well drilled anywhere. Why don't they change the guidance? Why would they at Q1 they only were marginally ahead of guidance at that point and with 70% of the year left, it would be foolish to narrow the guidance at that point. We will see if they narrow guidance at reporting H1. May do, may not but that's down to management to decide.

JMAX that's untrue and entirely misleading wells are forecasted on the base case standard formula, standard practice in oil and gas. 50 - 60% of wells beat the base case. Everything is baked in according to you, it just isn't . The market isn't anywhere near that efficient. Otherwise all companies would be trading at NPV.

Tony some good points, although albeit with some speculation of figures. I do want to agree re the debt position, but alot on here don't seem to understand the debt question. That yes the new senior notes and junior notes with Glencore are highly punitive and cash sweeps are mandated every 6 months. However they are not as restrictive as previously and wiggle room starts to shift when they get beneath 1.5x. You are spot on that the company does not need to pay off the full $1.35B net position, it just needs to get under 1x as stated in the companies own literature. The junior Glencore facility can start to be repaid under 1.5x.

The H1 report looks set to look beyond stellar compared to last years full year report. This half alone has changed the trajectory of the debt question, we will see how quickly the new gas security mechanism with Ghana repays the $160M owed, but this revenue is not baked in and will likely stretch into at least 2027. If people genuinely believe that there will only be $175M in FCF this year need to read the room, at these levels. Perks is downplaying so they deliver to the upside, look at the contrast of Kosmos in terms of production, they are confident of an additional cargo in 2026 that's a full tanker completely unhedged for each stakeholder. People can do the math at 60% hedged for 13- 14 cargos, no gas that's just oil.

I don't know why people are still short it's just a matter of time before the fundamentals are out there and this ridiculous SP is left behind. H1 will be out by September end, and as a LTH holding 8 years this is the first H1 in that time that I can't pin any negative to.

This is exactly it. I'm currently out and do keep an eye on things. The journal peer review is the last value driver outside of trials for P140, more so than patent approval. A scientific journal endorsed by peers is the put up or shut up moment for a stellar deal. If big pharma bids are not submitted within that few month window then a sub optimal partnership would be more likely the more it drags on. It's interesting times, but clear as day for the multi bagger deal to come to fruition the clock starts ticking as soon as the journal is published.

See a certain poster is still announcing his greatest hits.

A couple more weeks and that's 3 cargos lifted at $120 - $140. Looking forward to H1 report in August for the first time in 6 years, with revenue and cash flow up earnings to debt ratio will be much improved if this keeps up they could be under 1x before the years end. Looks like Ghana got the thumbs up from the IMF with over 4% growth so hopefully an arrangement for that $200M should be cemented soon too, I would also argue any agreement made with Ghana on this requires an RNS.

WW I sold up after the GM, reflected on that I fundamentally disliked the ongoing narrative and the disconnect between truth and actual progress. 120% profit not as good as 400% granted but I will continue to monitor events here and wish all holders the very best, my tolerance for TM couldn't last another year or 2.

I don't read this board as often now, but you can continue to argue with everyone who has a contrarian view and remain a hypocrite in peace.

Just for some context. Needs a 100% rise from here before IMM makes anything from the new Lanstead deal, only known update on the horizon is publishing of a paper and 9 months since we were told they are in talks. Bright side the board are paid for another 2 years (really not sure what Ketans point is if it's still only Lanstead that they can make agreements with) and likely be ok as a going concern.

Finally what I will say is be cautious of those telling you to be patient when they ultimately sell when it suits them.

Draft 2 days ago posted about wasting time posting on BB's yet continues to post drivel. 27,600 posts of this caliber.

Additionally posted the update is crap and now is telling us all it's going to the moon. I often ask my delivery driver what moves to make in the stock market. Absolute clown.

Anyways TLW bit of a gap to H1 report, usually early August. Normally they are not great reading as capex and tax payments are front end loaded, but this one is already looking like it could be stellar. 2 more cargos at these levels please. Really hope the BOD aggressively start to buy back the senior notes in H2, if they can get some of the outstanding from Ghana a $100M bond buy back would go down really well.

Stanleypro RD massively messed up in ploughing ahead with a 20+ multi year drilling program based on 10 year old seismics and data. That's unfortunate and the past, and he's rightly gone, the new 4D's are looking like they can address production, this is the first time in a long while that H1 is going to look good instead of another kick in the teeth.

In terms of the cost of debt yes 15% is hampering but the point here is if they get to less than 1.0x before November 2028 then refinancing becomes a very different story. The current oil price is accelerating that. I keep pointing it out but net debt peaked at $4.5B it's now on paper $1.35B (actually $225M less when Ghana pays what's owed), and people can't see that it's not far off being on par or less than earnings. People can bemoan that it's taken longer to get here which is fair but at some point the SP has to be reflective of a shrinking net debt pile. Even in a lower oil environment EBITDAX on 40K boepd here is approx $700M - $800M. So a good benchmark for what net debt should be is $750M, so a required reduction of $600M and they are owed $225M. I'm patient enough I've been here for years, but this key inflection point that's been holding this share back is getting ever closer.

Really get annoyed by these comments, where do they need to clear the debt pile, why? Name an oiler that has no debt or is actively trying to clear debt to zero. Oil and Gas companies life cycle is debt - pay down debt to less than earnings - debt - pay down debt to less than earnings, wash, rinse, repeat. All the super majors, giants and mids are all indebted for the slow payout O&G gives from investing. Cradle to Grave, from exploration, to production, to decommissioning and the capital invested along the way. You don't want a net debtted organisation then O&G isn't for you invest in services companies that only have revenues not massive capital costs to make money.

The board have categorically stated the aim is to get to 1.0x or less, the current 2.3x is also not a fair representation because if they had received full payments from Ghana then it would be 1.4x and that's despite selling assets that are not included reducing overall earnings. For context BP for 2025 was 3.0x and that's not constantly considered a basket case.

Earnings will be up this year and debt will be down, they could even go under $1B net debt and be 1.1x or lower.

So how exactly are you preventing it from happening again? Have you identified any fraud in your research or did you just do a chatgpt query where even that told you that it is has absolutely nothing to do with the current situation here. Your posts should be removed as it has nothing to do with anything let alone Tullow, possibly the thickest attempt of deramping seen on here in a long while. A guy who can't read a release and do a simple query on AI... what a guy, no scratch that you're a hero for trying to prevent these things happening again.

Point to where I said they would exclusively drill for gas. The advancing of an Ntomme infil drilling program suggests TEN will be back on the menu at some point and securing the TEN FPSO was primarily in removing some of the high operating costs experienced previously to make drilling there more economically viable.

Tullow is still owed $44M ($4M left by June 2026 and $40M over 5 years starting Q3 2028), as well as royalties and buy back. Remember when you were slagging off Uganda royalties aswell, they are round the corner now, income for 25 years at no cost.

NNeo you sound negative because that's what you're posting, if you actually were trying to be balanced, it's not hard to find what you are saying is untrue. $175M forecast at the mid (38K) for $100 is not tens of millions, they said today production in first quarter is 43.4K with four wells to drill. Also what you've missed that's significant of your pithy list is the purchase of the FPSO, the Uganda royalty payments (first oil July 2026), the Kenya proceeds and the new gas processing facility for TEN. Meaning addressing long-standing gas off take issue with TEN can look to reverse production decline in the TEN field in 2027.

NNeo net debt forecast to be $1.07B from $1.35B for 2026 but ok. For the record and this is the big point here EBITDAX is going to be in spitting distance to leverage possibly by 2027 at 1.0x or less. Any oiler trading at 1 times or less is a solid investment case for lenders. I mean if we had the money from Ghana the net debt position would be $200M less. I believe the ideal net debt position would be about $750M for TLW. Current oil price we are steaming there. What people don't realise is that once you get to 1.0x debt cost of 15% would be considerably less overall, and a single digit figure in refinancing. They are coy on the FPSO so even in a lower cost environment is saving hundreds of millions.

The RNS was pretty clear giving the market clear ability to roughly calculate what FCF could be. We have another cargo due in the next week or so. And with more wells to be drilled this year, with Q1 already above the top of the range. It's been said here but this has been the best update posted by TLW in years.

Even if oil price drops off a cliff later in the year, each cargo lifted at $100+ gives the board significant options in reducing costs for 2027, retiring notes aside, taking over the FPSO lease, small incremental production increases these are all organic positives. And if oil stays where it is for the whole year that's $200M+ net debt reduction, that's fast enough for me. These Analysts do tend to forget that they've said this for years, in 7 years TLW has reduced it's net debt by $3B and although $1.35B is still too high, we are getting closer to a figure where our assets and cash flow generation are on par or with the outstanding total debt amount. The aim is not to pay down the debt to zero, that's only what a business does before selling everything and winding up but even in that scenario we would all get a chunky payout for the sale of Ghana.

So calling someone thick is not childish? Ok hun.

Anyways I'm glad you just outed yourself as weak and irrelevant. Everyone already knows this of you and yet still here you are all day every day arguing with everyone and anyone. Take care flower 😘

you have a long posting history of being the worlds biggest ******, i know which i prefer. sad sad sad excuse for a human. hope you read this before it's removed.

Draft can you read? you seem really confused about the RNS you can't find $170M at $100 try there sonny bob. What did you want a table or maybe a puzzle and some crayons, I find it so odd that those with the knee jerk reactions often don't have the ability to understand the information as it's presented. If you can't piece it together I think you should wait for the covering analysts to publish a report and pay for it. It's not for people here to guide you. For the record you are literally the only person this morning who's said this is crap, even JMAX only called it bland.