Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Just posting his greatest hits again, insiders bought recently and he still posts it as some kind of gotcha. You don't have to be an economics major either to see that his zombie comments are wrong. A zombies debts are static or grow because of an inability to pay beyond the cost of the capital, what is factual is Tullow has reduced it's net debt position by $3B since it's peak. The board has detailed it aims to get the debt under 1.0X.

Watch his posting history he pivots as well, used to bang on about the arbitration claiming they would lose, did this until Tullow won the first case. Shot down posters who clearly understood international tax arbitration and he didn't, ranked his opinion above those who said the case was without merit. Pithy one liners or repetitive unbalanced non facts that's his MO. The definition of opinions and arseholes.

Lenin the music has already stopped as far as supply is concerned, the trickle of ships currently leaving the straight of Hormuz can't fix that Cushing is now at tank bottom and the only thing left propping up WTI is the US SPR and commercial inventory... The SPR was drained by 9 million barrels last week. $71 is a normal price for all in a perfectly balanced oil economy. Demand is so far ahead of supply right now and this is with China stepping out and some Asian and European refiners holding off believing they can get it cheaper later down the line. These forward contracts of which some 100M+ per day actually need oil at some point and there just isn't that level floating around where it needs to be. They can keep rolling over these positions but there's a limit to this. Refineries need oil and that paper is a promise of delivering that oil. You can tell that refiners are starting to prepare for the worst just by seeing the massive build in refined inventory petroleum and distillates. Interesting to watch how this will pad out.

Cushing draw 12/06 is -1.6M barrels. Some long contracts for July deliveries are going to be getting some interesting calls to settle on Friday and Monday. Algos can't auto close out a position with not enough barrels or holders wishing to settle a contract to sell.

The deal is going to be signed on Friday, the term deal is misleading though more the pathway to an as of yet not agreed agreement. Reality marine traffic is not going to go back to immediately normal either. The straight needs to be swept for mines, insurance and reinsurance needs underwriting and then there's the fact it takes 30 - 45 days for the suez max tankers to reach Asia and 45 - 60 days for tankers to reach Europe and America. The paper market is or has been out of step with reality through out this entire crisis, as it's working on the ignorance that oil can't just be instantly transported to a location. Stockpiles will continue to draw down until tanker traffic returns to pre war levels. Iran has proven it can cripple the world economy now and leaves the leadership in a much stronger position than before this started.

Lots of speculation about what's in this deal and everything will come out in the wash, but both sides are claiming victory. But anyone who has studied history knows there has to be a loser in war, sometimes there's multiple losers but there has never been a conflict where all participants ended up victorious. Someone has to give something up, let's see who has. I would hope that the Middle East countries and the rest of the world realise they need to be accelerating away from . moving or sourcing barrels from the straight.

Speaking of shorts generally, the high level of contract shorts on WTI will be interesting. As of latest figures 146 million barrels to be closed out by 22nd June for July deliveries (albeit across WTI), this is relevant because there's only 1.64M free float barrels available (as of last week, likely lower today at current draws) at Cushing. So even though there's a long for every short 5 - 10 million of those barrels are refineries that cannot close a long because they require a physical barrel delivered. So the first test of the paper market hitting the physical market could be as soon as 10 days. Make of this observation as you will.

MM you seem to bang on about Avion being in charge here, they are not. Nobody here has seen the actual legal text in full, but it will cover the full scope of the original deal and within that as part of any signing of a MOU or contract will have get out clauses. What we do know is what Avion agreed to fund and how much for, chiefly $25M Phase 3 of lupozor for the treatment of Lupus (years have passed and no P3, pharma contracts have time limits). P140 the rebrand has a new patent submitted and is now a multi platform diagnostic and treatment well outside the original scope and estimated to cost $100M in a phase 3. So Avion even if they wanted to, cannot afford to take this into trials and equally this deal does not suit either party. The fact that IMM are brazenly speaking to other partners suggests Avion will be paid off on any deal announcement, it will likely be a negligible amount in the grand scheme of any deal. It's either that or they have to take IMM to court for breach of contract, which they will likely lose because as already pointed out P140's intended purpose is far beyond Lupozor. They also hold shares so any big deal sees those shares increasing exponentially in value.

I'm not even a holder anymore but as an occasional reader of this BB your posts are not only repetitive but out of touch on how pharma acquisitions work. If big pharma wants a treatment or drug, then minnows, small, mediums often fold beneath them. IMM won't be sweating if it came to a legal battle because it won't but if it did and it was Pfizer, AstraZeneca or Roche you'd back their legal teams over Alora Pharmaceuticals.

It's been like that for years. How long ago was the quantum leap now? Still PH has a good record other than increasing his shareholding outside of governance awards of acquiring assets he can't afford to progress. Will the SP one day reflect the asset value? I think so, but you holders have a long wait, possibly more dilution before then, as there's nothing in 2026 that's clear from the recent presentation. The CCS could have been, but the admission that there's not even legislation in place puts that off into the distance. Will 2027 be the year, we will see but anyone waiting for their multi bag have at least 9 months to take a position.

I'm just going by the government of Ghana's current public position. As the build is modular, not from scratch and in phases there will be a staggered ability to process gas before commissioned 300 mscf max capacity in 2029. But you are right in that it still hasn't passed final approval and funding hurdles.

I get the frustration but we've had management make dud over egged promises before, Paul McDade chiefly was the car crash that led us here and Rahul Dhir actually verbatim promising jam tomorrow while drilling dust. I'm happy with Perks way of doing things, let the fundamentals do the talking. Even then they are already spelling out to you that this year at current oil prices they are going to generate $200M+ in FCF, with EBITDAX rising that 2028 refinance looks much easier with earnings to debt ratio looking much better.

Has Perks done much different? Not really. The assets were agreed to be sold before he arrived, the seismic is proving to be the success missing in previous drilling campaigns, Richard Miller likely arranged the refinancing and oil well oil is where it is.

People seem to focus too much on this year and the debt pile. with the takeover of the TEN FPSO overheads become much lower because of the absence of expensive lease contracts, Ghana will be increasing it's gas handling capacity so expect a doubling of gas off takes in late 2027 early 2028 which even if not renegotiated reflects $35M - $40M in annual gas revenue which additionally helps reduce production declines as gas is not reinjected out of necessity rather than support. There's first oil on Uganda and Kenya. Most importantly if they can clear $200M of senior notes so even at par that's saving on 2 years of punitive interest. All of these things will reduce the cost of each barrel produced meaning that even at lower oil these are compounding effects. People should be viewing 2026 as a boon, the more they make in FCF in 2026 the lower the cost floor is in 2027.

AGM's are what they are, all about getting the articles voted through. I don't know why anybody really expected much out of it, the whole market is the same, AGM's are non events unless there's an article that is anticipated to be voted down or Noel Edmonds turns up shouting only to get ejected. Even trading updates often are a let down. H1 will be with us by September that's the biggie.

I had to laugh, how did you infer that from the shortest of trading updates and a slide. There's nothing like filling in the gaps entirely with your own material and running away with it.

It's actually making things worse for contract traders, the short positions are keeping the oil price heading in the opposite direction to what it should. Algos are favouring announcements from the POTUS, why wouldn't they as in normal times they are only announcing what will or has happened. The current incumbent has broken this by trying to create his own reality. The actual reality is all these bets require a physical close out which will be harder when reserves hit beneath operational levels, they call it tank bottoms even when it seems high, as a big chunk of that reserves number can't actually be used because there's a bottom before the associated structure collapses. it's already been mentioned but Cushing is the first test, that Cushing's absolute bottom is estimated to be 17M barrels so that's why 20M is the operational minimum, it has gone beneath this figure a number of times but outflows stop around this point. Why does this impact Brent, because the 2 are paired, Brent should always be higher because it's the difference between shipping around the globe rather than moving oil via pipelines around the US. Paper and the physical will collide if the straights don't open soon.

5 cargos shipped (4 jubilee 1 Ten) well above $100. $160M of securities owed by Ghana. Mcap $230M. Straight still closed, global inventories drawing down 6M bpd, Cushing 3 weeks before dropping below 20%. Refinery throughput down. 3 producers to come online June and July. H1 report due to be released September and confirm new fundamentals.

But then again you can listen to someone who claims everything is "psyops". Even if you believe everything is sorted by next week (no evidence of that anywhere) TLW have taken a huge bite out of it's debt, we will know soon enough exactly how much till the end of June. Markets are inefficient but mathematics isn't, debt down and cash generated has to someday be reflected in the SP.

Haha 😂 the irony of those retorts, mate you post nothing but infantile garbage. If I was to do a straw poll here, you still wouldn't accept that reality. You are the ghost at the feast, the un-flushable king-kong turd of this BB. The troll queen, people would pay for you to disappear you're that popular... but hey 39p genius, let's get t-shirts with all your greatest hits on. I can't wait for tomorrow, what will it be... greatest most accurate poster of all time may be? x

JMAX is what he is, nobody besides him understands why he posts here every single day posting his greatest hits. Insiders not buying, Zombie, gas blag, 39p etc. Ignore that a zombie by definition never pays down it's principle debt even though it's fallen from a peak of $4.2B to $1.35B today and likely falling faster right now than forecasted. RG has bought both bonds and shares in significant sums and the CFO just bought a tranche... But why are they not buying more, Gas had to reported when commercialised and boepd is standard for all oil and gas producers when they have a mix. He's queen of the straw man arguments, no substance to what he says ever... just a kid with a stick poking passers by. But 39p however truly other wordly incite.

Let the fundamentals silence him in time, share price is just a snapshot of right here right now, it won't be here forever up or down DYOR and decide for yourself.

What does that even mean? I gave you the industry standard and you are still arguing over it. You are trying to downplay production, which normally I'm onboard with as I've been highly critical of Tullow's production performance previously.

However they beat the top end in Q1 and admitted in the investor presentation they are having to choke back the flow on JP-4 and JP-5. With 3 wells and a water injector due online 2026 they have a higher than 50% chance of beating the base case, that's not specific to the geology that's any successful well drilled anywhere. Why don't they change the guidance? Why would they at Q1 they only were marginally ahead of guidance at that point and with 70% of the year left, it would be foolish to narrow the guidance at that point. We will see if they narrow guidance at reporting H1. May do, may not but that's down to management to decide.

JMAX that's untrue and entirely misleading wells are forecasted on the base case standard formula, standard practice in oil and gas. 50 - 60% of wells beat the base case. Everything is baked in according to you, it just isn't . The market isn't anywhere near that efficient. Otherwise all companies would be trading at NPV.

Tony some good points, although albeit with some speculation of figures. I do want to agree re the debt position, but alot on here don't seem to understand the debt question. That yes the new senior notes and junior notes with Glencore are highly punitive and cash sweeps are mandated every 6 months. However they are not as restrictive as previously and wiggle room starts to shift when they get beneath 1.5x. You are spot on that the company does not need to pay off the full $1.35B net position, it just needs to get under 1x as stated in the companies own literature. The junior Glencore facility can start to be repaid under 1.5x.

The H1 report looks set to look beyond stellar compared to last years full year report. This half alone has changed the trajectory of the debt question, we will see how quickly the new gas security mechanism with Ghana repays the $160M owed, but this revenue is not baked in and will likely stretch into at least 2027. If people genuinely believe that there will only be $175M in FCF this year need to read the room, at these levels. Perks is downplaying so they deliver to the upside, look at the contrast of Kosmos in terms of production, they are confident of an additional cargo in 2026 that's a full tanker completely unhedged for each stakeholder. People can do the math at 60% hedged for 13- 14 cargos, no gas that's just oil.

I don't know why people are still short it's just a matter of time before the fundamentals are out there and this ridiculous SP is left behind. H1 will be out by September end, and as a LTH holding 8 years this is the first H1 in that time that I can't pin any negative to.

This is exactly it. I'm currently out and do keep an eye on things. The journal peer review is the last value driver outside of trials for P140, more so than patent approval. A scientific journal endorsed by peers is the put up or shut up moment for a stellar deal. If big pharma bids are not submitted within that few month window then a sub optimal partnership would be more likely the more it drags on. It's interesting times, but clear as day for the multi bagger deal to come to fruition the clock starts ticking as soon as the journal is published.

See a certain poster is still announcing his greatest hits.

A couple more weeks and that's 3 cargos lifted at $120 - $140. Looking forward to H1 report in August for the first time in 6 years, with revenue and cash flow up earnings to debt ratio will be much improved if this keeps up they could be under 1x before the years end. Looks like Ghana got the thumbs up from the IMF with over 4% growth so hopefully an arrangement for that $200M should be cemented soon too, I would also argue any agreement made with Ghana on this requires an RNS.