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It's amazing how many throw away comments there have been since the RNS. The basic maths even accounting for an unknown cost reduction clearly shows that there is not enough coming in for the short or medium term. They still need external finance.
The SP was catastrophic before but will continue to tank because without those funds no auditor in the land will sign off their accounts as a going concern. They need cash and they need to start winning contracts. Anyway you cut it this is still heading towards insolvency they need much higher revenues. Verde will have done their due diligence and they know this. This is such an awful company and DP and JVL should be removed but can't be because they've showered shares out to hands that are the only ones to have made money out of the collapse in value. This stock is a typical AIM sham company and the stock exchange itself should be ashamed to just allow these charlatans to continue.
Simms45 look it's great to have positivity but stating €600K a quarter covers all overheads is just plain wrong, look at just the board remuneration for 2022 and that's not including all other costs. The Verde investment is not strategic or anything other than an equity raise because the business still has far more going out than coming in. The 2023 YE's will clearly show what the true costs of the business just existing are and it's not €2.4M... double it and you might be getting close. They have consolidated and raised because they were unlikely to be rubber stamped as a going concern.
Agreed a good deal. The market overreacted previously to the fall in the production forecast and anticipation of a reduction in the dividend.
Well even considering the enlarged shares in issue the impact on the dividend payouts is really negligible now considering the enlarged group will be able to develop it's assets with ease, reduce costs and produce significant amounts of cash for significant further acquisitions. The SP is excellent value for those who look beyond the next dividend payment. Disappointing reaction this morning but anyone with eyes should see there's value to be had here.
Suthy yep deffo an idiot. So it's going to go below IPO even though revenue has grown 10 times since and they are cash positive and still growing? Also every single company listed on the stock exchange even banks have credit facilities.
The base case for Thacker pass is $11M in phase 1 doubling to $20M in phase 2 for 40+ years. This is not including any of the other assets maturing into production.
Why even post if you are waiting for 15p, it's never going to get there. They should have an additional $2M - $3M in revenue this year compared to 2023 where revenue we know had grown $2M compared with 2022. Muppet.
I see MS is still as passive aggressive as ever.
Trek it's a fair question but comes from an idiot.
Why would they raise when they have $19M in cash? Unless it's a value accretive deal the board would not countenance it. 10p no chance.
In terms of Cash Flows they appear to have been marginally negative when taking into account the previous fully drawn loan interest payments, but now appear to be positive based on increased revenues and the lower interest cost on the new facility. Will see if YE 2023 reflects this but reality is we are not going to see that properly reflected until 2024 first half is reported. Q2 will also have 2 additional revenue streams added in a gold offtake and silver surface material processed which then starts a 12 month countdown of an $8.75M milestone payment. So basically nobody need worry about cash.
Would be nice of a new deal announcement soon, we have been treated to and have become used to lots of deal announcements, so through 2023 and 2022 but so far 2024 has been quiet.
nobody got in at 7p, you sure about that the volume traded at that level suggests otherwise. oil futures had turned negative i remember it well my lowest purchase was at 9p and highest at £1.80 and i'm in profit by 45% with a much lower average. my holding is also 25 times larger than your recent sell. so don't be giving the billy big *******s. you're a small fish that hasn't been invested here to know that most of us don't give to ****s about today or tomorrow, we are holding because we bought into the cmd plan. i won't be selling anything until 2027. don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Stalinvest are you bipolar? You've changed your tune from going over 40p to sub 30p in the space of a few posts. You do realise the vast majority of shareholders are long time holders and extensive research has proven that this style of investment outperforms day or frequent trading. Why would LTH's panic sell now when a fair few were holding at 7p.
$200 - $300M FCF at $80 forecasted, even with a negligible drop of less than 1% in oil the trend is up. You've sold up made a profit, well done (also nobody cares chief). Now just exit left don't be a dick it's not hard to not be one.
BigRisky we should feel honoured, he said just recently he was going to sell one of his imaginary tranches at 36p "if it ever gets there". Now wait for his 39p tourettes, but but but...
Call out enough numbers and chance is you eventually call correctly. Guy is a grade A helmet, nothing more.
Everybody here is JMAX, we are all simultaneously short and long with more tranches than there are stars in the universe. So that doesn't prove anything, think when John Malkovich went into the portal to his own head.
If RI is serious then lord help him, ignore... he's clearly someone who has never been able to work out how to tie his own shoelaces.
Regarding this shower I notice that they have converted zero euros zero cents from the €3B pipeline since the last RNS dated the 7th December. What the hell do they do all day aside from printing more shares to sell that nobody wants? If DP and JVL survive the next AGM in will only be a result of the gifted shares to their death spiral finance... sorry partners. I've seen some boards treat their shareholders with contempt but this is just theft now. They are not generating any money to pay wages one under performing project, one struggling to exit chapter 11, one delayed (no news on if they have started doing any work) and 2 possibly 3 agreed in principle. Revenue David, revenue... business 101 if you aren't generating revenue after 16 years it's not a business. You can tell they are going to have to do another raise, if this was the Victorian era they would be in jail. I'm sure others feel the same this company is just a con nothing more.
JMAX my limitations are clearly not hampered by you're, your and you are.
We have established this before, keyboard warrior in Prague and me actually been to a number of tax tribunals in a professional capacity. Your smug superiority complex knows no bounds, all based on calling 39p. I bet you get invited to all the great parties. Nostradamus can only dream of such foresight.
"Have you learnt what inflation is yet" JMAX your definition was wrong over simplified copy and paste which most economists disagree with that don't live in the 1930's, go back and read it again. Money supply is categorically not inflation, QE has
been happening at pace from 2009 to 2022 but inflation has been running under 1.5%, so just one of the inputs. I tried to help you out by mentioning quantative tightening where the global benchmark currency is being reduced and still inflation is occurring because the mix on this particular bout is Energy and logistics driven.
"TLW will have to pay something" have you read the dispute literature it's not a quibble about amounts, TLW states it owes zero pounds zero pence. TLW filed for arbitration not GRA. Ultimately the court will decide but TLW claims that the assessments breach it's rights under it's petroleum agreements which can be viewed on the Ghana petroleum register. If you were that concerned you would have looked at the agreements, but you haven't you just choose to throw this grenade every single day it's boring and pathetic.
JMAX it's a half truth and you know it. You keep bringing it up even when you clearly know nothing of any of the details, if everyone had a drink everytime you brought it up the whole BB would be hammered. It's nebulous and il tell you why, it doesn't impact the company on even the short or medium term. For 2 reasons, so let's say TLW loses first tier.
1. They will be able to appeal a decision and will do with the size of the claims, so it would go to the court of appeal, then likely supreme for a final decision that could take 4 years.
2. Let's say worst case scenario they lose outright or partially and TLW agrees to settle without taking it further, they don't have to pay there and then and Ghana can't squeeze TLW because it risks collapsing it's own oil industry so will likely agree to a TTP arrangement over 10 years either in cash or some form of production entitlement swap.
So the FCF is quite safe for the medium term even in your scenario that oddly you are hoping for. The reality is GRA will most likely lose both so what will you point at after that?
jmax completely disingenuous comment... again. same as the uk if an entity disagrees with an assessment amount or determination amount then they have the right of an appeal. both assessments have been detailed previously on here and besides the company is that confident of a win that no provisions have been set aside in the accounts. you keep painting tlw as the already defeated villains in this peice when the gra left it right to the last minute to issue this assessment coincidentally at the same time the government of ghana is seeking an imf bailout. people and organisations challenge tax authorities on spurious claims all the time it doesn't make them evil, was mcvities right to challenge hmrc for claiming jaffa cakes were biscuits and therefore they would have to pay approximately £3m which was peanuts to mcvities in the 90's.
really looking forward to the day you **** off.
Even if Kenya do decide to pull the plug which for them makes no economic sense whatsoever, it's a win scenario for RD as previously pointed out they owe Tullow the full costs accrued to date (including all partners costs with 100% ownership so that includes costs that TLW never actually laid out) so they could even take a lower settlement of the total costs ($2B) and make money. Though this scenario could likely close to wipe TLW's debt slate almost entirely. The problem is Kenya hasn't a pot to urinate in to pay this kind of money, so this alone means Kenya has to make it work. I doubt an IMF bailout would be forthcoming, maybe they could sell more assets but China already owns swathes of infrastructure including Kenya's main airport.
JMAX how is it a blag? It's revenue that needs booking, what should they have done other than the norm of all oil and gas producers reporting in energy equivalents. If it's mmscf or mmbtu this has to be measured against a standard barrel and everyone who holds any gas stocks should know how to convert it, if anything it's super easy with TLW because the gas deal is a fixed price that they have shared with the market. Much harder if you're trying to calculate if exposed to the market spot.
jmax i'm a lth so i remember paul mcdade, aiden heavey and dorothy thompson. i also remember £2 but why would i remember what some nobody posted in 2019? i'm more than happy with the size of my holding here and if i was a day trader have technically made more money just from adding yesterday.
nobody can predict the market let alone you. the amount of price predictions you throw down then statistically you're bound to get the odd one right. you're not a seer, what you are is a sad individual with multiple logins who try's to wind people up. the day you leave which will happen, will be the day this board has a massive party and that my friend is testament to you. passingly remembered as the biggest ******** to ever of graced this part of the web. you're not even anonymous, which town in czechia you in?
JMAX considering im in the black here and you are in the red I find that funny. You bought at 32p remember come on now we can't all keep your pack of lies going if you can't remember them yourself. Write it down on your forehead to remember it.
Considering I have never in all the years I've posted on here ever given a price prediction on any company I've invested in, or do I telegraph when I buy or sell. So how you can know what my targets are here when I don't know myself, makes your comments throwaway ones (as they always are). My strategy here has always been to accumulate on the dips until 2027, because I've decided to believe the CMD plan, so in terms of yesterday that was an opportunity for me to increase. Doesn't mean I can't vent about the SP movements but seriously yesterday a low of $380M market cap when last week they are still saying they can achieve $300M of FCF this year. The SP will eventually have to align with fundamentals, no matter how many cats you point at. How's the weather in Czech today?
Andoman your 2p worth is nonsense from start to finish. TLW was run (excellently for the record) by CEO and founder Aiden Heavey at the time they entered Kenya, which was properly licenced out. So what you are waffling on about is garbage.
Additionally Aiden managed to get the share price to £10 and got the blend of exploration and producing assets nailed. The debt markets were Kinder back then but TLW had so many eggs in different baskets and was producing over $2 3B in revenue. If you think TLW that was in the FTSE 100 around that time didn't do any due diligence before taking a share of the Kenyan licences (the same would have applied to 2 other companies Africa Oil and Centric then later Total) then you are thicker than you sound.
Where do we get these posters who can write a paragraph as long as your arm based entirely on nonsense? The SP woes here really bring out the dross, come back Jubileee all is forgiven, though probably was another JMAX profile thinking about it.