Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Exactly this, that's the cost of dilution here, they know that and no matter how you spin it suggests there is no deal, discussions are not an offer. An EGM must be forced as he survived reelection last AGM so he's not up for reelection until 2027. He has to go, as the continuation of these lies have damaged any trust and continue to harm relations with the market and I would extend that to potential partnerships. I'm sure Incanthera want him gone as well.

I think even after the dust has settled people will still be angry about this, I do think Tim definitely needs to go now, he saved his bacon with the pivot but this is his MO, would make a great magician with his sleight of hands, but this is one unnecessary distraction too far and clearly shareholders are done buying the guff now. People can say wait for a deal, well whatever deal is secured has just been diluted by 15% and the RNS has the audacity to say "we are pleased to announce". The guy doesn't secure deals just shovels shares to Lanstead anybody on this BB could do that and for a fraction of what he takes as a pay and renumeration package.

Even the biggest fans are reducing, is that confidence?

Xxnjr I made it $700K but the range allowed for a rounding stab at $1M. I would suspect success in the infil drilling program would push that beyond the base case.

Lanstead have made plenty of money off of selling millions upon millions of shares. So if Lanstead are going to be the only ones tapped (excluding WRAP) my question for the board is what is the point of Ketan Patel?

I said it last week but just to reiterate and of course cargo dependent and future hedging, even at the base case of production and excluding the gas these prices net approximately an additional $1M per day. The way to look at Tullow is it has to get net debt down to a certain level to reduce the cost of borrowing to fund further growth, retiring some of the debt is value accretive, so say retiring $20M of the notes in this quarter saves approximately $5.45M in interest. We have seen before when they have spare cash they have bought and retired notes, so unless there's some inorganic opportunity that is more accretive I would hope the board would use spare cash to accelerate deleveraging.

Nolupus your thoughts? I think you tend to seperate the leadership from the science.

Personally I go with my gut and this feels like another stomach punch in a long seeming never ending gut punches from the current chief. The cost of this dilution far outweighs any advancing of the development portfolio... if a deal was going to be made. Occam's razor suggest that the board are not 100% confident in securing a deal for P140 that's the only reason this raise makes sense.

I think the consistent problem remains, so regardless for the reason for the raise Tim has been on record several times to say categorically that they do not need to raise and IMM will be funded by deals. Instead Lanstead are back with a huge amount of shares, now this is one for the AGM. The optics do not look good for TM here, he already had a lot vote against him last time round. Despite the IP IMM's problem remains TM couldn't lie straight in bed.

JMAX announcing he's a parasite, so trolling and taking advantage of the unfortunate or destitute... What a guy!

Retired from what exactly? I bet you didn't have a career that required a conscience.

I know it is more to do with the timing of the cargos but even taking out the gas, which is a fixed price with Ghana TLW will be making an additional $1M+ per day. Will they be hedging some, probably but they should just let this roll and purchase some of the new notes instead.

Oh no not LSE's star Looney Toon. For anyone not familiar with Tiger, a word of warning. He lives in a complete fantasy land.

I can categorically state a few things that are not true. Firstly he doesn't have friends, let alone hedge fund friends. Not all investors will be piling into oil stocks, they didn't during Iraq and a lot of investors for various reasons would never touch an oil company in any circumstances these days, mostly for environmental reasons. Finally do not follow any of his "research" it mostly involves chasing spikes and then getting caught out then lying about when he bought, sold or how much profit he made. He writes like he thinks he knows what he is talking about, but you'd be better off going to the zoo and discussing the stock market with the penguins than listening to this guy. In summary a complete weirdo.

The market is 95% sentiment and 5% fundamentals. Why is any SP anything? It's mostly psychology and algorithms. You are retired and spend all day on here why?

Anyways I've made my point, this is the most positive position TLW has been in a long time, it doesn't even have to rip up any trees to get to where I've outlined. Legal disputes aside, all the new chief needs to do is get the production addressed modestly and maintain it till the notes maturity date and he's done a solid. The market will take notice if they are consistently producing a decent amount of cash or at least in line with their modest forecasts.

JMAX still at it I see. I think a lot of people forget how oil companies operate. They borrow based on the value of their assets as the business models are all heavily front loaded and capital intensive to maintain. The idea being you eventually start producing and pay that debt down and then replace those assets to repeat the cycle.

To be clear it is rarely net debt to zero look at all the majors net debt positions in the multiple of billions of $, because debt is tax deductible and cheaper than dilution. The aim for Tullow isn't to pay that debt down to zero, which JMAX keeps on hinting at. It's to bring the net debt figure down to a level where it is not out of sync with the value of the assets and the amount of cash flow it produces. Realistically if TLW produces $450M of free cash by November 2028 (2 1/2 years at $180M PA) the debt will become much cheaper to refinance and this is based on $65 - $70. At this point you would expect the company to be looking to acquire new assets. High oil prices reduce this timetable, so does improved production or reducing costs. Costs in particular, Kenya for example $20M a year in costs and no capital to progress it, so it is never as black and white as a certain poster always suggests.

Rpg7 look it's really simple 40% of what? You don't know, so neither does the market. This share to some extent did track OP moves when it was releasing quarterly updates.

I can see loads of small cap oil and gas companies that haven't tracked the rise in oil either. Most don't produce, some are too indebted and others like here barely produce enough to be cash positive in any price environment.

I think your argument should be why isn't this company valued higher because of the potential of its assets. PH aside, the main reason is because the company has taken years to get to the point that currently it still can't afford to develop it's own assets. The oil or gas in the ground, or storage for carbon capture will become more valuable when it is de-risked. In the case here it's legally binding confirmed partnership deals, as the board has failed previously to secure investment from a financial institution in the form of a credit or loan facility with a bank, beyond the whip round of certain holders (at 16%) that has been pushed back for the second time due to the inability for the company to pay back the principal. Would a year of $100 produce enough cash flow to afford to pay back the loan?

How is anyone being pedantic? That was the half year report for end of June 2025.

There are no accurate recent figures of production, coming up to 8 months old and ignoring the gas oil mix is the difference of about $65 per barrel of oil equivalent. They don't release a forecast, they finished a slim hole since and did not report the figures. Georgian government get a share. What's pedantic about facts? If BLOE were actually selling 500 bopd as you state then they'd actually have to be producing closer to 800 - 1000 boepd, so quite confidently can state they are not producing that. Would mean blocks producing wells are unique and defy physics because they would increase production over time without intervention and not deteriorate as every drilled well on the planet does.

I think what was referred was a combination of mine and hepseals posts. The company is likely cash positive at these price levels of oil and gas, but likely not by much. The board decided not to keep the market up to date with production figures quarterly so that adds to the fog over what could be being made. Most oilers benefitting from the rise either release forecasts or updates on their respective productions so the market can roughly estimate what's being made.

BLOE could be producing 250 boepd or 450 boepd, but nobody here knows that other than BLOE and the Georgian government. The management decision to withdraw from updating investors means this will only move on news related to one of the big projects.

For anyone who is stupidly considering OTM's comments as anything that has substance. For context due diligence in the pharmaceutical industry is considered short term if it's under 12 months. The reality is most platforms are monitored over years not months. Nobody other than IMM know how advanced things are or not, certainly not the resident hemorrhoid.

By all means take the words of a guy who's entire investment decisions depends on feelings derived from his considerable lack of knowledge and based on zero evidence. Literally the guy turned sour because TM wasn't smiling in a presentation FFS.

Errr not to question AI generated slop, but you should revise point 2, completely erroneous as the debt maturity has been pushed back to November 2028.

Although a rise in OP would improve the revenues here the reality is BLOE produces less than 500 boepd (of which 35 - 40% is gas). Likely the company is still losing money even at these elevated prices and has never made a profit in all the years it's traded. Probably would need $100+ sustained for a good period to change that.

The company chose to focus on it's strategic projects, at the expense of it's drilling, so does not benefit really from elevated oil prices. So the SP will only significantly switch upwards when news filters through on those strategic projects. P3 or P4 farm out or CCS news are the only catalysts here. They simply don't produce enough oil right now. Shame they don't have a drill planned. GLA.

I would try and ignore JMAX, not that it matters but he's not a prophet or even particularly right or wrong. If you call heads and tail and are vague enough about both of those outcomes you can spin it however you like.

Most people predicted they would be able to refinance, it was the most palatable outcome for bondholders. The actual terms are not too disimilar to previously on balance so because they are not significantly or blatantly better than the previous terms the narcissist claims victory. He had no idea how this would pan out and every refinance option gave him the told you so he craves. End of the day posts here all day every day telling you how great he is. People should decide themselves if that warrants greatness or sympathy. Sad.

JMAX have you actually read the terms? You are a unique character, do people need to highlight that you said refinancing would be on materially worse terms and TLW would have to pay a pound of flesh, all in all it looks not to be.

So for anyone who wants to talk about anything rather than the resident narcissistic, an extension and time to sort out production, I hold a fraction of what I used to but the company is worth more than yesterday. Good news on Gas and FPSO, but still fundamentally down to production now and a rising OP. First time positive here since RD's exit.