Member Info for Scrodingerscat

JMAX you're such a thin skinned soul. Everyone knows TLW has to pay down it's debt, but it does not exist to pay it's debt so no you are not right. That RNS clearly and fundamentally says that post finance TLW will have extra capital so the board has options to do whatever they see is best with that. You think short pithy statements make you superior but you just look like the most bitter person on these BB's. Did TLW not send you a Christmas card in 2021 oh diddums.

Well that's because at $110 ($170M at $100 and each $10M increases equals $30M) they will be making $200M in post finance FCF while mcap is $177M, SP is nonsense at the minute.

I would prefer to see some deleveraging in H2 rather than the other options, reducing debt costs has a compounding effect. Still the debt from Ghana still not addressed is a bit frustrating. Production up, and significant upside at current oil prices. I see JMAX is bringing out his best one liners, what a weird guy to have so much hate towards a company.

Name one person behind trump who's intelligent in matters of fighting wars and diplomacy. His cabinet and entourage is full of those of low intelligence, sycophants and ideologues. Kennedy, Vance, Rubio, Witkoff, Patel, Hegseth, Miller, Bessent the list goes on. It's Stalin's rulebook 101 you never have anyone exceptional or competent surrounding you, because anyone who question's or challenge your decisions is a threat.

Nobody on this planet knows how this is going to go, not in the US and not in Iran... But the headteachers in Dubai do. Draft is dense, you just need to read his posting history to establish that. If this was over oil would be $85 not $107.

The UK setup a National Wealth fund but it's focus is green energy, only setup in 2024 so will see how that pans out over the decades. Norway has a 34 year head start.

Huh, even if they have been hedging they do benefit, it's locking in a current higher price to a future date where the price is unknown. Hedging is prudent and if it wasn't for the hedging program then during Covid TLW would have gone bust. Draft by name, daft by nature.

JMAX you're like a broken record. Greatest hits 5. Called 39p 4. Gas Blag 3. Zombie 2. The insiders 1. Greatest Posting history.

Give it a rest, deleveraging is a positive considering they've reduced the debt from $4.5B to $1.35B, so really how long have you got left on some of these pithy one liners. The oil price is currently accelerating deleveraging here and thankfully one day will make you entirely irrelevant.

Oil companies get in debt and pay off that debt with production, why would you invest in an oil company that isn't using debt to fund drilling and infrastructure. Companies don't just pop out of the air with the capital to fund development, they have limited options; sell shares, a stake or borrow, debt is cheaper than dilution.

Yeah a $13M commitment should've seen the share price jump higher but there's the past disappointments factor in play, so rightly or wrongly the market obviously wants to see further derisking of the projects. But as people have already said if they do commercialise just one this could be a multi bagger.

I make it 3 cargos, everyone's best guesses on what they are getting for them because there's a $30 gap between contracts and physical crude. So if 60% hedged they've made at least an additional $70M in FCF and yet the SP is collapsing. Markets don't make sense here.

Also always has the problem that H1 is the most capital heavy due to tax payments being due. Retire some of those senior notes in H2 and debt costs start coming down which means more spare cash because of lower servicing costs next year. Would love it if they retired $100M of debt in short order because at some point the company has to equal the value of Ghana minus debt.

I wouldn't heed any of his advice look how badly his investment went in Forgent, he was warned the board there are 10 times worse than here 2 share consolidations, a name change and a pivot from biogas to gold and yet that's supposedly a grand crime here. Constructive criticism is fine, posting the same guff every five minutes is borderline pathetic.

Flavius it's nuts how the algorithmic nature of the markets reacts to headlines, you are right though the real physical not paper contracts world has not changed since yesterday. Ships will not move until they are insured and certain of safety. A captain who abides by maritime rules first responsibility is the crew not the ship or the cargo. Anyways to add to this even if ships were freely moving 20 million barrels of oil per day for 40 days has been absent, with shut ins and force majures across the region it will take several months for oil to trickle back down to $70. And TLW is 12p and dropping, they are going to clear more FCF than market cap... Ridiculous.

The peace plan published by Iran is a win for Iran, if approved they have a better deal since well before the revolution. No sanctions, control of the Strait, no real controls to their nuclear enrichment. A lot of people have been killed and a lot of buildings destroyed, the deal is far worse than Obama's as it gives Iran things it's never had before. Can Trump really go out and say they've negotiated a superior deal than the previous one with this? Looks like they've achieved nothing other than killing a few old leaders, a load of civilians and hitting the world economy to go backwards. People should be more annoyed, this has cost us all for no gain whatsoever. Trump is quite literally the worst president of all time by a country mile.

JMAX proving his financial illiteracy. A zombie company by definition is not able to pay down it's debt only interest. Reality TLW has gone from net debt of $4.5B to $1.35B in 6 years. Oilers are always front loaded with debt since time immemorial, the oil revenues come after heavy capital expense.

Why is he here bashing this all day every day when at circa $4B of debt he believed this was a good investment. The truth about the debt position is that TLW will still need to focus on deleveraging but the inflection point is ever closer with every cargo lifted at $100.

WW I think you clearly don't want to understand the irony of telling others to have patience while reducing at the same time, something you have dressed up as risk management not me.

For the record the exposure I have to IMM is a tiny % of my portfolio at current value, it's documented here previously what my average is and is still significantly in the blue. If my holding is valued at zero in 2 years it actually reduces the value of my exposure, which is the passive benefit of risk management happening naturally within a diversified portfolio. The difference between us is that I encourage people to diversify, you however were not telling people to sell when you were selling, only in hindsight. In fact your announcement came much later when you had "locked in your gains" as said point of hindsight, and verbally hammering some of those unfortunate to have been spiked and complaining about it.

The political environment is what it is, if you didn't know what the tax regime was like on the UKCS before invested here, then why invest. Sick of seeing investors moan about things beyond the companies control. We are making a tidy penny here and being paid phenomenal dividends. I'm over 150% up on value here and couldn't be happier.

That has nothing to do with smart risk management at all, you took some off the table because you weren't convinced of the 2025 delivery. Everyone here will take some off the table or exit entirely at some point for a whole host of differing reasons. Smart risk management is making sure you are not overexposed anywhere, you reduced your exposure while simultaneously pumping the share price and prospects. It's there in black and white.

i'm no fan of rog or otm but why is being angered by the lanstead deal spreading fear now? this is not based on hunches or hopium. the bod created this situation and current sentiment not posters here.

plenty of you are happy to eat a **** sandwich from imm and lanstead which is entirely your prerogative but even the chief cheerleader ww sold on the spike last year. that is not the actions of someone supremely confident in the company delivering. he's ultimately been proven right for that decision but not in the way he thinks, he sold on a high so to the rest f' em. equally has openly declared no empathy for those caught out on the 19p spike. my point is be wary of who you tie your colours to here, most wouldn't **** on you if you're on fire and don't hide that. someone who never questions power and is always full throated in support despite constant leadership failure is not a pal you want. at least otm is blatantly obtuse.

The jury is out on Seb, he is a scientist and will no doubt have pride in his research, you can't just white wash it and say it will be successful, the papers haven't even been published. Individual scientists are more prone to the sunk cost fallacy, so denialism and cognitive dissonance because it's effectively their life's work on trial. This is why science is based on peer review as acceptance. When we have a peer reviewed paper then you have your evidence to support Seb. There's no level of detail released by Jackson Labs other than what IMM has briefly outlined.

My first Finance Director appointment I remember being told by the managing director the first few bankruptcies or failures in business are for learning, multiples beyond that are the leaderships entire business strategy.

I suspect they were hoping to secure a partnership deal to cover up the failures there before year end reporting but since that's not going to happen bit the bullet.

But we should only look forward shouldn't we, the past is not an indication of the future and we shouldn't learn from it. INC does not highlight that the same individuals involved here struggle with deal making. Where do these pepped up ever wells come from? INC is an investment we made that cost us and the BOD here owe an apology or at least an acknowledgement of a bad investment.