Member Info for Tonyb33

There are about 83 paper barrel shorts to every physical barrel. That is the whole BRICS philosophy. That the developed world which does not produced the majority of the commodities but consumes the majority of commodities uses their financial markets to suppress commodity prices. I think you will find a lot of naked shorts out there.

Unfortunately for them Trumps hourly statements are now working against them not for them

My bad $80 oil was here sooner than I thought. I think we will hit Tullow at 14p today too.

I think 16p within 4 weeks maybe a little pessimistic

@fewdollersmore I think your 21p position will be in profit sooner tha you think too.

We will not hit $80 oil in the next hour we have hit it now. Next stop $100 Tullow has 3 extra cargos in the next 7 weeks lets hope we get a good price

@TDDW You misunderstand I am not talking about Tullow which has shorts of 2% I am talking about USO the oil ETF it has 93% short that was used to short oil just as Gamestop had 93% of its stock borrowed to short Gamestop.

As such we will hit $80 oil in the next hour and may hit $100 oil this week.

The budget for Tullow for 2026 was based on $65 oil and a midpoint oil production for jubilee of 60KBPD. Due to J76P hitting 20KBPD instead of the estimated 6.7KBPD if J77P and J50P do likewise Tullow will be producing 106K BPD. The impact of $100 oil plus say 40KBPD over plan per month is a marginal windfall of an extra $207m a month over plan.

This is on a company capitalised at around £200m

To actually trade the short position the traders actually borrowed 93% of the Oil ETF USO. Now funnily enough the last time 93% of a position was borrowed to short it was Gamestop. That did not end well for the shorts either. Its 3am in the US oil has risen $4 in the last few hours Trump has said the MOU is dead a lot of people are going to find out they are bankrupt when they wake up this morning.

Its says a lot of how exactly deluded Trump is after killing the current leader's father, his wife and his infant daughter then acting surprised that the only member of the family that survived the attack is cautious of attending new negotiations.. After signing an MOU whose first paragraph states Israel should cease hostilities in Lebanon (you might want to read the recent story of Israeli soldiers killing 4 insurgents in Lebanon who turned out to be the local school head teacher his wife child and maid inspecting their damaged school).

Trump goes on to describe the Iranians as sick violet people.

Well my prediction for $80 oil may be here a lot sooner than even I thought of. I think given the state of the SPR a $100 oil is more likely. We are up $6 a barrel so far this week and its only Wednesday.

My call on Tullow is we should be hitting 14p this week then may be 0.5p a week for the next 4 weeks. When H1 results come out first week of August I believe @fewdollersmore will be in profit on his Tullow position at 21p.

Re oil spike just in time for Tullow's second cargo in July. According to my calculations Tullow will be shipping 4 cargos in July August lets hope they get premium prices. At $100 oil that's $355m of revenue in two months for a £189m capitalised company.

Oil for immediate delivery is now higher that oil futures. Hopefully Platts Dated Brent premium over Brent September Future and the West African premium for loading in a safe port will also be making a welcome comeback.

I don't know I think both parties got what they wanted. Trump got gas down below $4 for the 4th July celebrations. The Iranians were allowed to clear their oil storage tanks to prevent shut ins, got their oil out of the Gulf and more importantly got empty tankers in to act as extra oil storage to prevent shut ins. They also got a quiet week to bury the Ayatollah. Both sides got fireworks as the Iranians set a gas tanker on fire. If LLoyds of London was expensive yesterday its going to be a lot more today, If tankers were wary of entering the Gulf yesterday they will be a lot more today.

The US is currently bombing Iran in over 80 locations and guess what Iran is firing drones at Kuwait and Bahrein. The strait is still open for now and Iran will be rushing to get its tankers in for more storage. They have buried their dead and dug out their missiles. Time for round 2.

The USA has just cancelled Iran's license to sell oil. I therefore suspect that the Strait will very shortly be closed Iran will have incoming very shortly followed by the Gulf states oil infrastructure. I don't think the East West pipeline has a long future

Brent September future just passed $76 I think $100 will be coming up very quickly as the 93% of USO borrowed to short oil will start to blow up.

Tullow have two new wells coming on stream in July J77P and J50P. The prior one J76P that's just come on stream is producing treble what was expected (20KBPD V 6.7k BPD). If these two new oil wells do the same combined with $100 oil for just a few months a serious dent is going to be made in Tullow's debt come September.

Further these new wells cost $40m each but at 20k BPD at $100 a barrel that's $2m a day return on investment the biggest beneficiary is Ghana they might be tempted to pay their bills to advance the drilling program as with revenue share and taxes their money simply returns to them.

Three tankers have been struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre.

It added that the latest tanker to be hit is said to be traveling off the coast of Oman and caught fire.

Iranian state television said the LNG tanker came under attack after ignoring warnings.

Earlier, two tankers were also hit, including one that was struck by a drone.

Both of those ships sustained some damage but no injuries have been reported by the UKMTO.

The sharp fall was due to the Strait being opened it was a one time event. The oil will be absorbed by the market over 2-3 weeks. By the time the next Tullow cargo is shipped the price should be back up to $80. Brent is up $2 this week it will be back to $80 shortly. The higher oil flow due to J76P and hopefully J77P and J50P combined with the cheaper hedging may actually bring in more revenue per month at $80 than the lower volumes in April did at $120 a barrel.

DOHA, July 7 (Reuters) – A Qatari LNG tanker was at risk of exploding and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker was damaged near the Strait of Hormuz, sources said on Tuesday, after reports that Iran fired missiles at ships in the waterway overnight.

The Al Rekayyat, loaded with liquefied natural gas, sent out distress signals seeking assistance after it was hit on its port side, one of the sources said. Another source briefed on the matter said the vessel was at risk of exploding due to a fire in its engine room. The crew were safe and were being evacuated.

“Mayday mayday mayday. This is vessel Al Rekayyat, LNG vessel Al Rekayyat. We are being hit by drone on port side, top of engine room,” the Rekayyat’s captain said in a recorded radio call reviewed by Reuters. “Status: engine room fire and full of smoke. Unable to assess further damage.”

It is the first time an LNG ship from Qatar, a mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran, has been struck since the start of the Iran war at the end of February.

A Saudi-flagged tanker, believed to be the supertanker Wedyan, was also damaged off Oman’s coast, maritime security sources said. The cause was not immediately known.

Al Rekayyat is owned and managed by Nakilat, also known as Qatar Gas Transport Company Ltd, which operates one of the world’s largest LNG shipping fleets. LSEG shipping data showed the vessel last transmitted its location on June 18, indicating its AIS tracking transponder was switched off.

Wedyan is owned and managed by Saudi shipping firm Bahri.

Bahri, Nakilat, QatarEnergy, Qatar’s international media office, the Saudi government’s media office and U.S. Central Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

There was no claim of responsibility for the attacks. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said initial indications were that Iran had fired at two commercial vessels.

Qatar’s foreign ministry said Tehran bore full legal responsibility for the attack on the LNG tanker. Tehran did not immediately comment.

REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS DIVERT THIRD VESSEL

In a separate incident, a Liberia-flagged liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanker – believed to be the Al Maryah – was ordered by Iranian forces to change its course and sail closer to Iran’s coast after attempting to transit the strait via Omani waters on Tuesday, a maritime security source said.

The vessel’s manager, Abu Dhabi oil company ADNOC, declined to comment on vessels in its fleet.

“The start stop nature of the re-opening of Hormuz is continuing to inject volatility into Middle Eastern tanker markets since it is leading to the irregular flow of tankers through Hormuz in both directions,” ship broker BRS said in a report this week.

Ship traffic through the strait has picked up over the past week with more oil, LNG and other energy flowing again, averaging 25-40 ships sailing daily. That is still lower than the daily average before the conflict began on February 2

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/jubilee-production-set-to-hit-90-000-bpd/2-1-2013528

I don't see it as brave at all. If the FD is buying at 17p its not brave to buy at 12 4 weeks before the accounts come out. Especially as Kosmos just let slip the latest well produced treble what was expected, the highest cargo in the last 6 months paid double what was expected. The Strait of Hormuz is mined and three oil tankers have bee hit with missiles in the last 10 days, Tanker insurance rates are on a war footing, there are 10 million Iranians waving red flags baying for blood, Israel has tanks halfway to Beirut, Russia is on fire and importing fuel, and ten percent of the world's oil supply is shut in with no current prospect of relief.

If you cannot make a profit under these circumstances I don't know how anyone would.

SPR down 5.5 MB to 319.5 MB The lowest its even been since actually filling it

Cushing still below 20 MB

Iran has fired drones at at least one gas carrier taking the Omani route

Brent is up a dollar

Hormuz traffic at about 30% of normal the vast majority of tankers are leaving of the tankers entering the vast majority are Iranian followed by Saudi which means the Qatar Iraq and Kuwait oil storage tanks will not be emptied that means 10MBPD of production cannot be restarted

Ukraine has managed to hit the last Russian oil refinery over 2,500 km from its boarders as well as numerous other oil facilities. Russia now has 300kBPD shut in.

There are 10 days left for Iran to clear the mines in the Strait its simply not going to be done in 10 weeks never mind 10 days

Ten million Iranians are in Tehran holding red flags chanting revenge.

Meanwhile Tullow have drilled 3 new wells the estimate was an extra 20kBPD. The first J76P hit 20kBPD on its own the other 2 go live Last week of July and end July. We have H1 2026 normally out in first week of August by then oil will be back to $80 a barrel and we should see a stellar set of numbers.

@jetcrowts

I think that $210m is conservative its based on 12 cargos for Jubilee I make it 13/14

@jetcrowts

My projection is for the year 40.002 kBPD oil plus the 7.3 KPD for gas total 47.320 Equiv BPD

@xxnjr

Given we have been told J76P is producing 20,000 BPD kicking in Mid June with an end June exit rate of above 85kPD. Even if we assume the other two wells are in line with prior guidance (which was 20k for all 3 combined) and no allowance for the September injection well. We follow Kosmos guidance J77P kicks in Mid July and J50P effectively kicks in end July ie start August 26. I get

Jul 90,967

Aug 96,113

Sept 94,508

Oct 92,930

Nov 91,378

Dec 89,852

These numbers are syncd with all guidance assume no input from water injection well (September) and 6,667 for both J77P and J50P. My total YE 2026 production is Jubilee 11,690,651 and TEN 2,922,975.