Member Info for Tonyb33

The bond seeps are for the PIK and PIYC interest elements of the bond interest. The way it works is that there is a minimum cash interest that Tullow has to pay. Then an extra interest element payable if oil is over $65. Then a further interest element that accumulates and is only payable if Tullow has cash levels over operational requirements. Further certain proceeds ie sales of assets and Ghana proceeds are to be used to clear any interest arrears from PIYC (Pay if you can interest elements).

At these sales levels Tullow is fully able to clear all interest elements out of cash flow. The agreement allows Tullow then to clear debt on the basis of notional capital plus accrued interest. ie the bond prices will not reprice due to their high interest rates. I do not know whether their is a requirement to clear senior notes before junior notes. The senior notes charge lower interest but are repayable 15/11/28 ($1,210m) the junior $428m repayable 15/05/30.

The reality is two months ago Tullow's bondholder's nightmare was that they were not going to be paid. The senior notes were valued at 69% pf Par. Today refinanced with junior notes enjoying 17% the junior notes nightmare is that they will get a redemption letter from Tullow redeeming their notes at face value plus accrued interest. At current cashflows that going to occur very soon. Believe me a lot of these notices are going to be sent out shortly.

So yes Tullow's bondholder's new nightmare is that they are going to be paid

@xxnjr

My reasoning is that the average oil tanker is the speed of a man on a bicycle. Today is war day 66 tomorrow when we open we will be half way through week 10 of the war. The last oil shipped by 28/02/26 only arrived early April. we have received a constant stream of propaganda that the Iranians want to give up and the war will end in the next few weeks. Its like the USA is ignoring the fact that in their initial attack they killed the father son and wife of the current leader in the middle of the last set of negotiations.

The only way Iran can prevail is to play for time until the oil price crushes the USA . That is going to take at least 3 months. As such by the end of May the talk of war being over in two weeks will wear thin and everyone will be bidding for available oil. Especially oil from a peaceful port 12 days steaming from Europe. So I think $230 is actually a low bid let us see.

As to the bond holders attempting to push Tullow to sell within two years. If Tullow can clear the junior debt the senior debt will simply be refinanced at rates a lot lower than 15%. If this war is still going by September this will be achieved in this financial year. That's only 16 weeks from now in fact given the delays from shut ins tankers in the wrong place tankers with fouled bottoms needing dry dock, insurance requirements to stay in place for 10 days after ceasefire, Ukraine destroying Russian export terminals and pipelines and damaged infrastructure if fighting starts again you could be talking 12 and we are already halfway through week 1.

Board Bragging rights for 28/05/26 cargo

@Tonyb33 $230

@TDDW $142

@JMAX $75PE

Https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/4/iran-war-live-tehran-says-trumps-hormuz-mission-violates-ceasefire

Iran has just published a new map of their zone of influence. The zone encompasses the UAE port of Fujairah which is outside the SOH and in the SOO. This is Iran stepping up kenotic is sure to follow. They have just attacked a UAE tanker for good measure

Again my estimate for 28/05/26 of $230 a barrel is looking modest. This also means this is going on for a lot longer. Brent Future Sept 26 just passed $100 and Dec 26 is knocking on $90. if missiles start flying you can double that.

What this means for Tullow in August Tullow will be shipping two cargos of roughly 891k if this war has not ended by July or if the USA attacks Iran's infrastructure and Iran returns the favour by blowing up the East West pipeline, closing the Red sea and hitting essential oil infrastructure well oil will be $200+

At $200+ Tullow will be making $125 a barrel net profit and short work of its debt.

If you see what happened to the Red Sea after the Houties were routed it is still deemed dangerous and avoided by shipping. If SOH gets that reputation then African oil will enjoy a higher premium than the current $12 a barrel

This is going to play out in the next 12 weeks Tullow at 50p is going to be looking very cheap

Board Bragging rights for 28/05/26 cargo. Now that Iran is now shooting again I feel I might have been a bit too cautious

Forecasts so far

@Tonyb33 $230

@TDDW $142

Come on @xxnjr no lurking or acting like @JMAX and fudging the number after the event put it up now. All contributions welcome

I am getting reports of US warship hit by two missiles attempting to enter SOH. Oil now up Brent July Future up $5 to $113.60. I think Donald is looking for an excuse and now he has got one

I have been attempting to model this.

If you add the sequence of TEN cargos and project it forward the Cargo would be a KOS cargo. I do not know whether a single tanker will take a KOS and a Tullow cargo from two fields. If not it supports your assertion @xxjr that the late April cargo was also a KOS.

One interesting thing is in the conference call it was announced 3 lifts for Tullow in 2026 by my calculations if they follow the same sequence as in previous periods they would have to lift every 63 days which points to a 15.79k barrels PD of production for TEN.

The Projected Lift Days for TEN would be 16/02 24/08 and 28/12. However the conference spoke of 4 TEN cargos one already lifted and a possible 2.5-3 more. But to hit these 3 dates you would need 15.79KBPD to hit 4 you would need more.

@xxjnr any advice gratefully accepted. The 2026 projection was a midpoint of 12kbpd but TEN was doing 16-17k last year. Further work needed

Today is the end of war week 9. We have 8 weeks to glory. In 8 weeks time Tullow's auditors will be auditing the oilfield valuation. Tullows oil field is valued by a discounted cashflow calculation. Last year the following data was used

Lease end date 2036

Assumed future oil values 2026 $61.29 2027 $61.68 2028 $63.21 2029 $64.94 2030 $66.24

No Gas deal for the TEN field so assumed gas from TEN will be reinjected or flared

Current Valuation

Lease End 2040

Oil 2026 $111.50 2027 $87 2028 $77.93 2029 $73.18 2030 $70.67

Currently Ghana is actively building a second gas train GPP2 specifically for the TEN field. Due to the lack of gas agreement the TEN field has a negative value of $49.80m on Tullow's book.

The oil field revaluation will hit H1 results in the first week of August 2026 together with the spectacular sales, the interest credit from the IFRS16 lease early termination and data on projected income from Uganda. Ghana might have even paid some of their outstanding.

The good news will push Tullow way beyond 50p I am looking forward to it

Just extending the lease effectively

@Scrodingerscat

I have been looking at the tax. Tullow has been very heavily hit because the Hedging expense, accelerated interest under IFRS16, and the depreciation are not tax deductible. This year the effect will be going the other way. The early termination of the IFRS16 lease will produce an income which will not be taxable (the tax is calculated on the physical payment) The Longer lease 2036-2040 plus the higher oil value $85 not $62 will mean the comparison between the year on year old field values (Which trigger the depreciation charge) will mean the depreciation will be a lot lower and the resulting higher income will not be taxable. Further if we can book hedges from a higher base at some stage we may make profit on our hedge book (not this year though)

This has aged well

Ok guys well that's the Bull flag completed. Anyone who followed that has just made 36% return in a week.

That's 1.8% on a £200m company. I think the hedge fund concerned lost that down the back of a sofa. However someone will probably realise and close it off shortly

The reality is even the analysts (who actually seem to simply read off last years numbers) expect EPS 5p this year 10p next of which I think is way below where its going to land after the oil field revaluation, the IFRS16 release and the H1 numbers. The average oil co on the UK market is 19 x EPS. This is going back to £2.00. If its not feel free to hurl abuse. I will weep from my yacht in Monaco

Unfortunately that was me buying my position sorry about that

@Fewdollarsmore good to see that you are in profit. Unfortunately I am the cause of the price spike to 15p when I bought in at 9th March so I have a few more shares. I hope to join you in profit very shortly.

We have had two 25% price spikes in the last 3 months this will be the third. Even the analysts are giving 5p EPS this year 10EPS next. The average PE ration for a UK listed oil co is 19 X. I predict we will have at least two more price spikes before the Half Year results come out first week August.

By that time we will have the pricing on 8 cargos say $90 average, The oil fields repriced on current prices (or better still June 2026 prices), The IFRS16 accelerated interest released, update on projected income from Uganda and hopefully some news on Ghana chipping in with their excess income to pay their bills. Lets target 50p by August

I just had a call from the IRGC they have put in at $500 I think they know something we do not

This message posted Friday 24/04/25 when Tullow was 11.44p. So we have made the break out so we should be heading to 15.55p

Ok Roll up Roll up

So lets get the predictions in for the next cargo. I am estimating this will be around 28th May 2026. That cargo can get to Europe by 9th June. A cargo leaving the Gulf today can not get to Europe by 9th June so its going to be very popular. My estimate for this cargo $230 a barrel.

Gentlemen put up your estimates do not be shy. Unfortunately JMAX and Draft I cannot see your bids :-)

@xxnjr

I had a look last night (for some reason the presentation is gone this morning. I agree he did mention 2 weeks ago but if you look at the date on the sheet he was referring to its says 21/04/26. The oil price around 02/04/26 was $139 due to a blow out in the difference between Brent Futures and PDB. The PDB price around 16/04/26 was $116.63 but if you add the $12 West African premium you could be nearly at $130. As you have said we will wait until the official numbers come out.

If I am correct and today is a Tullow cargo day well I am seeing Brent June Future at $124. Gemini is stating the PDB premium over Brent June future at $6 plus the West African premium over PDB of $12 mentioned in Tuesday's presentation that's $142. I am claiming the April cargo prize with my prediction of $150.