Member Info for Tonyb33

@antonb

It will take until the elections in November.

The reality is that the Iranian regime has shot 10 times more civil protestors than have died in this war. They are playing for time. Trump and co have been constantly talking down the oil price for 10 weeks. Tomorrow is war day 70 end of week 10. Any suspension of hostilities will be a very slow drawn out affair that will resume should Trump, Israel, Hesbollah, the Houties or the Ayatollahs overstep the mark. The chance of that happening are 100%.

The only benefit I can see is the price of Tullow is 30% higher today than the last time when Trump said that the war is over. It will probably be another 30% higher the next time he says that the war is over. I am sitting on my hands and waiting for the Shareholders meeting on 10th June 2026. I expect another 50% climb of the share price by then.

al jazeera today

iranians are still reviewing the us proposal and there hasn’t been any official deadline. however, there are expectations that a response is going to be given to the ****stani mediators today.

an mp in the iranian parliament and former foreign minister said today that a response will be sent to the americans.

iranians are saying that, at this stage, they’re not negotiating their nuclear programme; it’s only about ending the war on all fronts. they want guarantees directly from the un security council, then they want sanctions to be lifted, and the reopening of the strait of hormuz. if that is achieved, in a second phase, they’re ready to discuss their nuclear programme.

in the strait of hormuz, the iranians have established a new body called the “persian gulf strait authority”. they say the maritime regime in the strait has changed, and any ship passing through needs to communicate with iranian authorities.

translation the iranians want toll fees and nukes that's not going to go down well with donald

if the strait is going to be opened and that's a big if. its centred around a 30 day gradual opening. this is how it will impact tullow

may cargo 28/05/26 so knock off 45 days (40 days shipping from gulf plus 5 days extra transit for fouled bottoms) and teh trigger opening date is 13/04/26 so we know we will get a premium price for may cargo. june cargo will go 05/07/26 (due to quarterly ghana cargo) that means if strait still closed by 21/05/26 that cargo gets a premium price. july cargo goes 03/08/26 so we need strait closed until 19/06/26 but august will be both jubilee and ten 01/09/26 so if the strait is closed until 18/07/26 we get a premium price. ie if the strait is still closed by 18/07/26 i calculate tullow should receive a further net of tax income of $129m over and above free cash flow guidance of $175m that's $200m off the debt pile and a saving of $34m pa in 2027

We are seeing the President declare yet again that war is nearly over. Its funny these events normally happen on either Fridays before the market opens (pushing average oil prices down Friday-Sunday) or On Sunday before market opens (impacting the weekly market open) eg Project Freedom announced Sunday and quietly died on the following Wednesday.

The one good thing (if not frustrating) for Tullow is that it sells oil on the four days around actual shipment but its hedges are based on the average of monthly Platts dated Brent. This constant spoofing of the market is actually making Tullow money by suppression of oil prices for financial hedge expenses.

The March Cargo was actually shipped around 02/04/26 (due to the fact that the second cargo in March was taken by Ghana who takes a cargo on the quarter dates). But the hedge costs were calculated on March platts dated Brent. I calculate the price achieved as $139 a barrel but the hedge was calculated on $103.13 a barrel for April the price on 30/04/26 was $142 (inc West Africa premium) but the hedges were calculated on the Platts date brent for April being $117.29 a barrel.

People are seeing the lower oil price and selling Tullow they do not realise that the lower price of oil actually benefits Tullow. By the time the Tullow cargo is despatched on 28/05/26 I expect that the peace deal will have failed people will realise there is no oil and my target of $230 a barrel for May Cargo will hit.

****stan on wednesday issued a tender seeking to urgently buy two lng cargoes for delivery later this month as the country struggles to cope with a gas and power crisis amid disrupted lng supplies from the middle east.

****stan lng limited (pll), the state-owned company procuring lng from international markets, issued a tender on wednesday inviting bids from lng suppliers for the supply of lng on a delivered ex-ship (des) basis at port qasim, karachi.

****stan is seeking to buy one lng cargo for delivery in the window may 12-14, 2026, and another shipment for delivery between may 24 and may 26, 2026. each cargo would contain 140,000 cubic meters of lng.

the rush to import a new lng cargo as soon as next week is the result of the energy crisis that the middle eastern conflict inadvertently created in ****stan.

the country has relied on qatar's term lng supply for years, but the war in the middle east has led to the shutdown of qatari lng production and exports.

spot lng prices in asia have surged since the war in iran trapped all middle eastern lng supply from qatar and the uae behind the strait of hormuz.

still, ****stan has moved to tap the spot market for the first time in nearly three years as the lack of fixed-term qatari supply has triggered a power crisis and widespread outages.

despite the high spot lng prices for asia, ****stan appears to have no choice but to tap the spot market for the first time since 2023 as the energy crisis has intensified in recent weeks with power outages and fuel rationing.

translation ****stan's delivery from the gulf is not coming and so they will have to tap the spot market... at any price. bodes good for tullow selling 1m barrels of oil 12 days steaming from europe at the end of may. the only question is will this still be going at 6-7th july when tullow's june cargo is sold. if so expect fireworks on the share price in the first week of august when the h1 results are given out.

The Orange Man has changed his mind Oil prices are rising and everyone is scrambling to buy back the shares they have just dumped....who would have thought it ...its a mystery

Trump says war could end if Iran accepts proposal

The US president has warned that US bombing of Iran will resume at a “much higher level and intensity” if Tehran fails to comply with a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz.

“Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” he said.

Equinor sees oil and gas disruptions for at least six months

Norwegian energy giant Equinor says it expects disruptions on the global oil and gas market, due to the war on Iran, to continue for at least six months.

“Even if there were to be peace right now, it would take time – we think a minimum of six months – before the situation returns to normal,” Equinor’s President Anders Opedal told Norwegian broadcaster NRK.

His comments came as Equinor reported an 18 percent rise in first-quarter net profit to $3.1bn, buoyed by soaring prices due to the war.

“Many ships are blocked [in the Gulf], many others are scattered around the world and need to come back, and so it will take a bit of time,” Opedal added, expressing hope for a return to normal since “no one has anything to gain from this war.”

IRGC says ‘stable passage’ via Hormuz to be ensured after US threats are ‘neutralized’

The navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has thanked captains and owners of vessels in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman for cooperating with new Iranian regulations for transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

“With agressor’s threats neutralized & new protocols in place, safe, stable passage through SOH [Strait of Hormuz] will be ensured,” the IRGC statement said on X.

The IRGC recently laid out guidelines for safe passage of “innocent” ships through the Strait and warned that it will block vessels carrying weapons and ammunition destined for US military forces in the region.

Translation that's $2m a pop as a contribution to our nuclear weapons fund. This was last week's deal and it did not end well

This stock has bounced around then moved up 25% three times

18/02/25

09/03/25

28/04/25

The next one will be on 10th June for the annual general meeting expect the SP to hit 25p Then 1st week of August when we get the H1 results which will be spectacular

based on the request of ****stan and other countries, the tremendous military success that we have had during the campaign against the country of iran and, additionally, the fact that great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the blockade will remain in full force and effect, project freedom (the movement of ships through the strait of hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the agreement can be finalized and signed,” president trump posted.

translation the tankers are not going anywhere. not only that they have now been at anchor in a warm water port for a minimum of 10 weeks so the only place they can go is to dry dock to have their bottoms defouled. after the tankers have had their bottoms cleaned and their screws an rudder cleared they are 40 days away from their respective refineries.

the iranians are waiting until the november elections

@stanleypro

Tullow does not sell on July Brent Future it sells on Platts dated Brent plus a West Africa Premium.

The Orange man has told us a settlement is near

He tells us that every week

What is very near is the end of the oil stocks

What is very far is the Gulf tankers they are still in the Gulf and they take 40 days to get to Europe plus 10 days Lloyds list rules no movement until 10 days after ceasefire (we have no ceasefire)

This is how Tullow works

1. It sells oil periodically the next cargo goes around 28th May.

2. The price it charges is the 4 days around the bill of lading which I estimate will be around $230 a barrel

3. For the last 10 weeks Donald has been telling us he has a deal especially on Fridays and Mondays

4. On Monday we had Operation Freedom two destroyers covered by Apache helicopter gunships and A10s went through a maelstrom of missiles drones and fast boats and managed to leave with 2 US cargo ships the oil tankers declined. The route they went was too shallow for a tanker. This op was cancelled after three days and two ships.

5. Tullow sells oil periodically but hedges daily so todays drop in oil prices actually makes Tullow money not loses it.

6. Its 40 days from the gulf to Europe but 12 days from Ghana so the oil sold on 28th May will be hitting $230 a barrel

7. The Iranian's are waiting to the mid term elections they are in November

US President Trump said Iran war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.

I would put a zero on that which means $150+ oil all the way to Xmas

The 100 day moving average (9.81) will shortly cross the 200 day moving average (10.02) a good sign for 20p +

I think this thing will be going for longer than most people realise and oil will be a lot higher for a lot longer

My Model

Initial oil 110k BPD Q4

Above $75 oil 2.5% on 28.33% (post tax)

Will ramp up to 230,000 BPD base next year

My estimate of YE 2026 revenue based on $100 oil $7,011,675 (3 months Q4)

More like 250p

The share price is driven by the oil price

Oil has been in a bad place for a long time. Its also been driven down by Shale oil. The good news shale oil wells do not last long and need constant maintenance. Oil is priced in USD which is a story in itself.

I moved into oil from precious metals where I have made a considerable sum.

Where metals go oil follows this is not an oil play but a US Dollar play a BRICS move into hard assets play.

I believe even when this war is over oil will be elevated for years.

I believe that Tullow was one of the best plays on the market when it was dropping and I recorded it on this chat board and I gave my reasons why.

This company used to be worth $22 billion and it was available last month for less than $100 million with two oil fields in Africa whilst the Gulf was on fire . Its a no brainer and a ten bagger.

@JMAX its pointless commenting on my posts because I have filtered you. However I am more than happy to be held to account on my posts so long as the comments are productive. (Hence my apology to @xxjnr this morning). Everything I have said I have backed up with my own models I have provided support for my beliefs and I have amended my models from constructive criticism.

Now sit back and watch this thing hit 50p. I will then set up a sheet for £1 then £2 because that's where I think its going to be within 24 months. Thats 10p a share earnings on a PE of 20. The current multiple for UK oil shares is about 19.7 and the current analysist's projection for YE 27 is 10p a share. Both of which i think modest in their ambition

I thought this chat should be started !

@xxnjr

Well spotted

Kosmos release today

Kosmos has growing exposure to higher near-term oil prices, with realizations and free cash flow expected to rise in the second quarter, taking account of the lag effect between sales and benchmark prices. In the second quarter so far, we have seen record pricing and record differentials for production priced off premium international benchmarks such as Dated Brent in Ghana.