Member Info for Tonyb33

In summary the pricing follows a critical path analysis. ie its priced as at the date of arrival not departure. My feeling and assumption is the Ghana price at 03/07/26 will be influenced by the Gulf price as at 19/05/26 as both cargoes will arrive in a major market simultaneously due to the distances involved. If the Gulf is closed as at 19/05/26 it will influence the 03/07/26 price in Ghana.

However my real interest is the August cargo we have 54 days until we hit the target date. In August we should have 2 cargos shipped jubilee and TEN. If the Gulf is closed until then we will have a double pay day.

Let me explain my reasoning

On 03/07/26 when the Tullow cargo ships the price paid will be the market price. The market price will consist of the Platts Brent Price plus a West African Premium paid for the reduced risk of picking up the oil in a low risk zone.

The price paid will be determined by the market ie sum of alternative buyers and sum of alternative sellers. Now an alternative buyer who would be sitting in Europe and wanted delivery on 15th July 2026 would had to have purchased a cargo from Ghana on 03/07/26 or from the Gulf on 19/05/26 or 3-4 days earlier if the bottom of the tanker (in the Gulf) had been heavily fouled due to being at anchor in a warm water port for three months.

So, due to the location of Ghana and a major market for fuel ie Europe and the distance to the competition ie the Gulf, the price paid on 03/07/26 will be influenced by whether the gulf is open or closed on 19/05/26. Regardless of the ultimate destination of the tanker and regardless of the state of the tanker picking up from Ghana. The fact that this date has passed means that the price of oil sold in Ghana on 03/07/26 will command a premium whether or not the Gulf resumes traffic in the period between now and 03/07/26.

It has only one place to go regardless of what happens next.

1. Tullow will ship 7 cargoes in H1 we know the price of 5 of them because Ghana has released the shipping data https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

2. We also know when the next two will go because we know the sequence and the length of time between cargoes.

3. We also know that it is physically impossible to get less than $130 a load for these two cargoes because there are only 12 days to Europe from Ghana but 40+ days from the gulf to Europe (even more really because of the bottom fouling from waiting in a warm water port for 3 months) So the June Tullow cargo leaving on 03/07/26 could get to Europe faster than a Gulf cargo leaving today as such that June cargo is going to get a very high price.

4. We know that the Production platform has had its IFRS16 lease terminated in Feb 26 so its going to release the accelerated interest charged under IFRS16 in earlier years the interest charge will be negative

5. We know that the oil field depreciation charge will be reduced because the closing oil field value will be higher a. Because the 2025 oil field valuation was based on $62 oil and b. Because the 2025 valuation was based on a PV of a lease until 2036 in the interim period the lease has been extended until 2040 ie we will PV 4 more years from the same oil wells this will produce a high closing valuation and therefore a lower depreciation charge.

We know these things its simply maths and when they get announced on 10/06/26 and the full details released in W1 August 2026 the H1 results we know that the SP will rise substantially

In Brent Oil Futures there are 83 paper barrels of oil to each physical one. In addition its a contract to deliver oil 10 weeks from now. The orange man is waking from his China jet lag and about to go kinetic again. However the reality is the physical barrels are steadily dropping. The rearrangement with Ghana means that the final 2 cargos for H1 2026 Tullow will hit 08/06/26 and 03/07/26 we should see very high prices. The reality is that there is such a disproportion of time between a cargo from the Gulf and a cargo from Ghana that even of a cargo left the gulf today the cargo leaving Ghana on 03/07/26 would get to Europe faster (and hence command a premium price0 as such H1 2026 Tullow numbers will be spectacular. We should get guidance on 10th June.

US will possibly resume its war on Iran ‘within the next 24 to 48 hours’

It appears that the US will resume its war on Iran in the next day or two, says Mohamad Elmasry, professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies.

This is because Trump “has got a lot of different people in his ear”, including Netanyahu and “very hawkish people” within his own administration, Elmasry told Al Jazeera.

“He hasn’t gotten the kind of capitulation that he’s wanted from the Iranians and he expected from the Iranians,” said Elmasry, adding that Trump also “expected negotiations to go differently” and had high expectations during his recent summit in China with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Elmasry said that he believes it would be wise for Trump to end the war at this point, given that it has been “a real disaster for him” and for the US on a political and economic standpoint.

However, he is unlikely to do so “because Trump cannot go back at this point to the American people with a convincing victory declaration”.

Due to Ghana releasing their cargo data

https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

Tullow's May 2026 cargo is now confirmed to ship 08/06/26. So this will be the new date point for the May 2026 cargo price.

Ghana have released their Cargo data for TEN and Jubilee for early 2026.

https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

The actual data is largely in line with my models with one exception. The 2025 sequence had Ghana taking an extra load in the quarter months (Mar Jun Sept Dec etc). However, the released data shows that rather than book the Ghana cargo as the second cargo in March 2026 they have actually booked it in second cargo February 2026.

This has the following consequences

1. Instead of booking a cargo on 21/02/26 when the price was $71.28 a barrel Tullow shipped their cargo on 06/03/26 at $95.74 a barrel. That’s worth an extra pure profit of $21,721,287 for Tullow

2. The sequence now confirms that Tullow got the 02/04/26 cargo when the premium of Platts Dated Brent over Brent futures blew out to over $40 a barrel and hit $139 a barrel (@xxnjr please note) This was the record cargo price mentioned in the 28/04/26 conference call

3. That also means that Tullow also had the 30/04/26 load at $130 a barrel.

4. This will mean that Ghana will now get the second cargo in May ie the forthcoming 27/05/26 cargo.

5. This means the May cargo for Tullow will now be shipped around 08/06/26. In which case my estimate of $230 is actually looking better

6. My estimate for the Feb TEN cargo was two days out (My model 14/02/26) actual 16/02/26 at a price of $69.77 a barrel

Tullow have hit the Jackpot this year in terms of cargo timings on each month they have hit the premium spot I feel their luck is in this year.

Interesting KOS Q1 Analysts Questions

• Mark Wilson (Jefferies): Asked about the impact of derivative cash losses and future hedging strategy. Shah stated that Q2 will see more physical exposure to oil prices and that hedging will focus on downside protection for 2027.

Note the 2025 Tullow Accounts only show 7,500 Collars for H2 2026 Floor $58.97 Cap $74.88

If they have followed the example of KOS It could be that Tullow has followed through with its full 60% hedging or it could be that they have reduced the upside hedging and will be open to benefit from higher oil prices in H2. One to look out for in the AGM on 10 June 2026.  

Well here are the next Tullow cargo price predictions for June board bragging rights. Or as I see it observational credibility.

@TonyB33 $230

@AndyCM $172

@TDDW $142

@JMAX $75

As of this morning 18/05/26 July Brent Futures is $111.2 Google Gemini is giving the Platts Brent Premium of $6.95 and I am adding the West Africa premium from the 28/04/26 conference call of $12. That gives us $130.15.

A further interesting piece of data due to Mr Trump supressing oil prices my swap cost model with released Platts Dated Brent prices up to 11/05/26 is working on an average oil price of only $107.98. This is what most Tullow Investors do not understand a lower oil price over the period when a cargo is not being shipped actually makes Tullow a lot of money in hedge expense savings.

Over the weekend Iran fired a drone at Abu Dhabi’s nuclear power station so expect things to get a little hotter this week. I need about $10 a day to hit my forecast, all to play for. If anyone else would like to make a guess feel free to do so.

@xxnjr Can you please look out of your window and check the tanker status. One thing my numbers are showing me to hit the cargo forecasts from the 28/04/26 Full Year Results Presentation the three new wells that are going to kick in shortly with an extra 20,000 BPD are going to be needed to reduce the number of days between cargo pick ups so we can hit 13 Jubilee Cargos before YE 31/12/26.

I see 50p in 2027 as conservative for the following reasons

1. The cargos will now be leaving at $100+ prices from now until at least September if the embargo goes on another 30 days think December

2. The early termination of the IFRS16 lease will result not only in lease interest being severely reduced but the early termination will release accelarated lease interest from earlier years resulting in a negative interest charge.

3. The oil field depreciation is generated from a comparison of current year PV as against prior year PV less barrels sold. The fact that this years PV will be raised by higher oil prices plus longer leases (the leases were extended by 4 years) means that the depreciation charges will be reduced.

4. As the oil majors start building funds they will be looking for new reserves that are not in the gulf Tullow will be a target

5. The refinancing agreement has a built in cash sweep for 15/9/26 which will reduce senior debt by all cash surplus to operational requirements reducing debt plus interest

6. I expect an EPS of 5-10p currently oil companies on the UK market trade at an average of 19.6 EPS

One of the principal sources of revenue for Ghana is gold. Gold rose in value by 70% in 2025. It is projected to rise a lot further over the next three years. Hopefully these extra revenues combined with the rising oil price will trigger Ghana to sort out their debt with Tullow.

For my two penny's worth I see a sequence of 5-6 weeks consolidation followed by at 25% + boost. Its happened on the 10th Feb 18th Feb 9th March and 28th April. Junes cargo is probably going to be shipped around 03/07/26. Its 12 days from Ghana to Europe. A cargo to Europe from the Gulf would have to leave 16/05/26. I cannot see that happening as such when the Tullow June 2026 cargo leaves it will get a premium price. I have calculated the first five cargos for H1 2026 were Jan 26 $65.41 Feb 26 $71.28 Plus TEN Cargo Feb 26 $70.81 March 26 $139 Apr 26 $ 130. I expect that the May and Jun cargos will be $130-150+.

H1 results will be heavily hinted at the AGM June 10 so expect another 25% plus movement then and the H1 results will be announced 1st Week August 26 so another major move then followed by the H1 2026 reserves report 3rd week Sept 26 and so yet another movement then. As such by the end of September I expect an SP in the 30-50p range.

@Bullseye141

A very fair point. Unfortunately we live in a very harsh world. The sad reality is there are 1 billion people living in the West. They earn and consume 20-50 times that of the other 7 billion people 3.5 billion of which live on about $6 a week. Our western living standards are maintained by market regime and currency manipulation. The last three people to advance the position of changing how oil is only sold in USD which results in the ability of western markets to suppress prices were Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

I do not do bad things and I don't even want bad things to be done, but as an international banker I am very aware of the bad things done that give me my current standard of living. The good (or bad thing) is that the internet tariff relief the rise of the BRICS and container shipping is resulting in these forces being constrained. But if you live on 20-50 times that of the other 7/8s of humanity a rise of fairness is going to devastate your living standards. This is the real source of western austerity. The fact that no politician cares to address it or even propose a solution that will actually address the problem as opposed to solutions that will make things worse is also depressing. The reality is that the lowest decile in the West can no longer rent a house pay for decent food and keep the heating on. As time goes on this problem will gradually go from the bottom 10% to the average.

The KOS cargo left 13/05/26 that would make the Tullow/Petro SA cargo from the Jubilee Field 26/05/26. The June Tullow cargo should leave around 03/07/26 dependent on how the new wells are kicking in. I am currently modelling a cargo for Jubilee every 13.5 days but that should speed up to meet (due to the new wells) to meet the cargo projections from the last Tullow presentation.

With a bit of luck Donald will have resumed hostilities by then so the Platts Dated Brent premium and the general prices will be elevated.

It gets even better during the Trump meeting a series of tankers left the gulf for China. One of the reasons for the subdued oil price recently was the large releases of oil from Chinas stockpile. China knew it was getting a top up exactly at the same time Trump would be there. China Russia Saudi Arabia Brazil all key players in the BRICs consortium. The objective of BRICS is to raise the living standards of their countries from subsistence levels. These countries supply the West with their commodities. However manipulation by western commodity markets results in them being paid marginally above a rate that keeps their population in abject poverty. The objective of BRICS is to get around the Western commodity markets and western currency manipulation. This is to be achieved via pricing commodities in alternative currencies to the USD, and developing fairer commodity exchanges which are based on actual ownership of the commodity in question.

A clear example of this can be seen in the current oil price. Even with 20% of the world's oil supply cut of for 11 weeks the July Brent Future is lower than it was 2 months ago. The reason for this is the 83 to 1 ratio of paper barrels to physical barrels of oil in this market. So market speculation and manipulation not actual supply and demand regulate the price given to producers.

Iran is going to receive something for their largess in releasing oil this week. China knew it was coming in advance that was why it was making vast profits and political influence by selling its oil reserves that were purchased at depressed oil prices into a hungry market. The BRICS are playing a longer game. It is not going to end well for the USA when all of those Petro dollars start coming home.

As per Google Gemini today

As of today, May 13, 2026, the physical oil market continues to reflect the volatility of the ongoing Hormuz crisis. The Platts Dated Brent premium (the "Dated-to-Front-Month" differential) over the July Brent Futures contract is currently exceptionally high due to severe physical supply tightness.

Current Market Snapshot (May 13, 2026)

MetricValue (USD/bbl)ICE Brent July 2026 Future$107.32

Platts Dated Brent (Indicative)$147.32 – $167.32Dated

Brent Premium over July+$40.00 to +$60.00

Thats strange it was only showing $2 yesterday

No Senior debt has shorter duration and a contractual agreement to pay it off. The senior debt goes to May-Sept 2028 the junior to 2030. The refinancing was done under duress so there is an automatic cash sweep every 6 months to reduce the senior debt. With an oil field revaluation on longer leases more wells and higher oil prices, and senior debt reduction Tullow will be able to refinance on a willing buyer wiling seller basis. This was acknowledged in the senior debt price. It was 70% of par in February 2026 it had risen to 97% shortly before it was refinanced.

The other question is that these levels have never been so low. The common consensus is there is going to be another release announced. However we are getting to the bottom of the barrel (pun). This will greatly affect the speed at which the oil is released. Interesting times

@xxnjr

Many thanks very interesting i will now reset my models on a 12 day turnaround for Jubilee and see how they measure up to the H2 disclosures. I suspect this number will drop again once the three new wells kick in they are projected to produce 20,000 BPD between them.

@Scaffman

The oil price mentioned is Brent July Future. This is Brent delivered in July. Tullow sells on Platts dated Brent which generally has a premium to the earliest Brent future price. This premium moves dependent on how tight the market is and date of month. The $12 premium was mentioned in the H2 2025 presentation. Because Ghana is a safe pickup place its earning a premium over PDB. That was the price given it was also mentioned that this extra element was not subject to hedging so it was free cash. I suspect this number will rise the longer this dispute goes on ditto PDB over Brent Futures. In April this premium was $40.