Member Info for Tonyb33

Kosmos release today

Kosmos has growing exposure to higher near-term oil prices, with realizations and free cash flow expected to rise in the second quarter, taking account of the lag effect between sales and benchmark prices. In the second quarter so far, we have seen record pricing and record differentials for production priced off premium international benchmarks such as Dated Brent in Ghana.

@NNeo

The junior Notes $428m Being SOFR + PIK 12.75% (SOFR is currently 3.66%) that equates to 16.41%

However the key issue is that I calculate the second Tullow TEN cargo will go in August. If we can keep these high price to August which due to steaming times means mid July then that's another $86m of free cash flow. So in effect we are talking this dispute going on another 9 weeks. I do feel that is quite realistic with all of the current issues. The question is whether it drags out longer. I feel that there is a lot of extra value in Tullow that's why I invested in it.

@TDDW

The price is the estimated price that Tullow will receive for the 28/05/26 cargo

That's Platts dated Brent plus the $12 PB Premium for West African oil as stated in the last conference call. We will calculate it as Brent July future plus the Platts Premium from Google gemini.

@xxnjr

I have modelled the numbers

1. I agree to your annualised debt interest numbers but I do not think Tullow will actually ever pay them. In 2026 they will only pay 7 months at the refinanced rates and by 2027 they will have substantially reduced the debt by at least $200m for 2026 and a further $200m for 2027.

2. I have modelled the projected income and my model at sale price Jan 26 $66.91 Feb 26 $71.28 plus remaining months $100 I get Free cash at $179.5m in line with forecast. I calculated $7m for Uganda I think the forecast missed it that's 110,000 bpd for Q4 at 28.33% 2.5%.

3. However If you put it the number actually received for March and April $139 and $130 then project $200 for May and $150 for June that's an extra $126m of free cash. I do not think those numbers are unreasonable.

4. In my eyes we have already hit May I calculate the June cargo will ship around 6th July (delayed due to quarter Ghana cargo which will take the late June slot) So all we need is for hostilities to continue until around end of May (I factor in 40 days steaming from Gulf). Today we are 5th May and teh drones are flying

I think we are all good

Iran ‘reacting’ to US operation by targeting Gulf energy infrastructure

Natasha Turak, a journalist in Dubai, says the Iranian attack on Fujairah was a “continuation of Tehran’s playbook of attacking energy facilities in the Gulf” after it was attacked by the US or Israel.

“Earlier today, we know that Trump launched what he has called ‘Project Freedom’, which is using naval guided missile destroyers to guide trapped tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran considers this a violation of the ceasefire,” Turak told Al Jazeera.

“Iran is clearly reacting to this by attacking ships in the Strait and now by attacking energy facilities in the UAE.

“This is very significant for the Gulf because it’s just a continuation of the ongoing crisis that is engulfing energy facilities, putting pressure on the abilities of these countries to export energy and oil and gas from the Gulf,” she said, adding that Fujairah was part of the UAE’s key energy export infrastructure.

There is always a numpty selling Tullow however the flood of people who bought at 11p 12p 13p 14p 15p and 16p will be kicking themselves they did not buy more. Up 42% in 5 days. Even a penny on the share price each week is over 6% gain a week. That will do me fine

UKMTO says fire on cargo vessel north of Dubai

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has received a report of an incident involving a cargo vessel approximately 36 nautical miles north of Dubai.

The agency added that the vessel reported a fire in its engine room, the cause of which remains unknown, but said that all crew members were safe and accounted for.

Separately, the UKMTO reported that it had received a report of an incident 14 nautical miles west of Mina Saqr.

UAE says air defences ‘engaging with missiles attacks, incoming drones from Iran’

UAE’s Defence Ministry says its air defences are “currently engaging with missile attacks and incoming drones from Iran”.

“The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in various parts of the country are the result of the UAE air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones,” it said in a statement on X.

December Brent Future now crossed $90 now $91.16

GCC condemns Iranian attack on UAE’s oil tanker

Jassim Mohammed al-Badawi, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), has denounced “in the strongest terms” the Iranian attack on an Emirati oil tanker during transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

The vessel was hit by two suicide drones as it sailed the seas.

“The continuation of these brutal Iranian attacks by targeting ships passing through the strait is piracy and serious extortion of the security of sea lanes and straits,” al-Badawi said in a statement on the GCC’s website.

“His excellency expressed the GCC’s full solidarity with the United Arab Emirates and its support in all measures it takes to preserve its sovereignty, security and stability.”

Explosion, fire on South Korean vessel in Strait of Hormuz

We can now bring you more information on the incident regarding a South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.

A spokesperson for the South Korean shipper HMM told Reuters that a fire was reported in the engine room of the bulk carrier and the cause is being investigated.

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry also reported an explosion and fire on the vessel, which it said had 24 crew members on board at the time – 18 foreign nationals and six South Koreans.

Fire at Fujairah petroleum site after drone attack from Iran: Media office

Fujairah’s Media Office says a “large fire broke out” at the petroleum industrial site in the emirate after a drone attack from Iran.

This follows the UAE’s Defence Ministry saying four missiles were launched from earlier a short while ago

Board Bragging rights for 28/05/26 cargo

@Tonyb33 $230

@TDDW $142

@JMAX $75

@AndyCM $172

Well played sir i will add you to the list

I make it

Jan - May 26

Snr $10,976,043/month

Jnr $4,553,333/Month

Jun -Dec 26

Snr $15,125,000/Month

Jnr $5,852,900/Month

Cargo $680,000/ Month

Total costs 2026 $229,252,175

However that assumes nothing is going to be paid back and that the Cargo facility will be used when Tullow has surplus cash. I think we have to wait 60 days for payment so by July we will not need the cargo facility that saves $4m. Further I suspect by December 2026 Tullow will either use the surplus money for one of three things

1. Clearing $200m + of debt (which will reduce the debt carrying cost by a further $32,820,000 pa)

2. Buy back of the assets disposed of but still available

3. Accelerating the drilling campaign on TEN.

I suspect it will be 1. The forced sale strategy was based on $65 oil. In that scenario the cashflow from the company barely covered interest on debt. In effect it was a repayment scheme for the bond holders that took all of the foreseeable money. At current oil prices the power moves back to the equity holders. If the debt can be reduced by $400m the balance can comfortably refinanced against the revalued oil fields.

@xxnjr Please put up your estimate of price Tullow will receive 28/05/26 Cargo. That is Platts dated Brent Price (As estimated by Google Gemini on 28/05/26) plus estimate of West Africa premium (put at $12 in the last conference call). I am interesting in your thinking of how this month will go ??

Bond seeps = Bond Sweeps

The bond seeps are for the PIK and PIYC interest elements of the bond interest. The way it works is that there is a minimum cash interest that Tullow has to pay. Then an extra interest element payable if oil is over $65. Then a further interest element that accumulates and is only payable if Tullow has cash levels over operational requirements. Further certain proceeds ie sales of assets and Ghana proceeds are to be used to clear any interest arrears from PIYC (Pay if you can interest elements).

At these sales levels Tullow is fully able to clear all interest elements out of cash flow. The agreement allows Tullow then to clear debt on the basis of notional capital plus accrued interest. ie the bond prices will not reprice due to their high interest rates. I do not know whether their is a requirement to clear senior notes before junior notes. The senior notes charge lower interest but are repayable 15/11/28 ($1,210m) the junior $428m repayable 15/05/30.

The reality is two months ago Tullow's bondholder's nightmare was that they were not going to be paid. The senior notes were valued at 69% pf Par. Today refinanced with junior notes enjoying 17% the junior notes nightmare is that they will get a redemption letter from Tullow redeeming their notes at face value plus accrued interest. At current cashflows that going to occur very soon. Believe me a lot of these notices are going to be sent out shortly.

So yes Tullow's bondholder's new nightmare is that they are going to be paid