Member Info for Tonyb33

One last thing we are now on day 5 of week 11 of this war. This week has flown by because the orange man is going to China not a lot has been done. OP is up a bit. The absolute shocking thing is people are now getting complacent about this war. Its almost joining the Ukraine war as an afterthought. Meanwhile the oil stocks are draining fast. There is an 83 to 1 ratio of physical oil barrels to Brent futures oil contracts. The oil price is being driven by the paper price whilst the physical is being rapidly drained. Very shortly there is going to be a spark and all hell is going to break loose.

We have 8 days before the June cargo price is unaffected by peace, 37 days for July cargo and 66 days for August cargo. The 66 days is the important one because that month contains the second TEN cargo. If this can keep going for 66 days Tullow is going to earn a shed load of money. This is doubly important 15/11/26 is Tullow's first cash sweep date all cash surplus to operational requirements will be used to pay off Senior debt. This debt reduction will be reported in the November trading update 3rd week of November. A date for the diary i think that the market will be shock at how fast the debt is dropping it will also be the same time as the oil field revaluations. the two items will go a long way to setting up a rerating of Tullow.

66 days I am counting

The Orange man did speak and the oil price is slightly lower. I honestly think his heart was not in it. He is off to China today and so on his best behaviour. Brent July Futures is off $1. That will soon reverse. With Trump in China this week he will be less likely to manage the oil price so we will hopefully get a good few days of steadily rising SP. The only fly in the ointment is generally making Tullow money by pushing down the OP. This is because the hedging expense is calculated on a daily OP. The Tullow sales are based on Platts dated Brent on the 4 days of the bill of lading. The Tullow cargos are currently going at end of month. This gives a massive advantage as the price generally builds over time the longer the strait is closed the higher the oil price. So that the hedge expense is calculated on the average month price but the sales are calculated on end of month price.

We should get a good few days hopefully challenge 20p before Trump gets back home and unpacks his holiday luggage and souvenirs. Expect him to declare war over (about Friday) until then enjoy

@xxnjr

Good morning good post. I have been modelling the oil flows on Jubilee and TEN. Currently the tankers seem to be coming every 14 days on Jubilee. However if you project that forward we will only get 11 Jubilee cargos for Tullow in 2026. Now the guidance from the H2 Data release was 13 (3+10). Further what came out was that J75P was working and J76P J77P and J50P were not only already drilled but be on line by July. We should expect to see the Jubilee cargoes accelerate ie a tanker period of less than 14 days. The KOS tanker should be in place now for a 14/04/26 cargo can you see it and please tell me when it departs.

My apologies that's a IFRS16 lease not an IFRS17 lease. I cannot see JMAX because he is filtered but I can imagine his withering comment @fool

Well Donald is on holiday in China so we can expect a quite week of steadily rising oil prices. We are now on war day 74 half way through week 11. Brent July future is up at nearly $106 and the platts dated brent premium is $2 add the west africa premium and Tullow is selling oil at $120. There should be a tanker coming on for a KOS cargo very shortly foe a 14/05/26 pickup. The next Tullow cargo should be around 28/05/26 for which I forecast a cargo price of $230.00.

The curve is rising in sync with the short end we are now over $100 oil up to the end of August and Dec 26 contract is now over $90 a barrel. Dec 27 is now touching $80 and Dec 28 is over $75. These numbers or higher will go into the H1 26 oil field valuations in June 2026. These numbers will contrast with the values put in the H2 2025 valuation which were in the low $60s. Further the H1 2026 valuation will be based on oil field leases to 2040 whereas the H2 2025 lease was based on an oil field lease to 2036. So higher oil prices longer leases equals much higher values.

We now have 9 days before the time differential between a cargo immediately leaving the gulf will be slower than the June cargo leaving Ghana to get to Europe. I know xxnjr will say but its going to China but my assertion is that it will influence the price. The significance is that this is the last cargo of H1. Four $130+ cargos in H1 combined with the higher oil field valuation and the interest release from the early disposal of the IFRS17 lease plus the lower interest cost on the new sale and buyback agreement means high income low interest and low depreciation for H1 2026 numbers. Further all of the new wells for 2026 will be in place by July 26 that's four new wells kicking in for the H2 2026.

The AGM will give a generous hint of these numbers so expect a price spike similar to that of the last release which pushed the SP up by 75% and then another spike first week of August when H1 2026 numbers are released. Its all good

Fortunately I have filtered JMAX out. I am a former product accountant I have calculated the hedge positions using the hedge numbers from the recent H2 2025 accounts. For H1 2026 I have used the following as per the accounts

Floor 3,750 bpd $58.20

Floor/Cap 10,200 bpd Floor $58.48 Cap $75.17

3 Way Hedge 2,224 BPD Floor $57.99 Cap $69.9 Call $79.90

I have used an average of PDB to calculate the hedge cost using an average of PDB trading days over a calendar Month. The source of of my PDB https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm

This gives an average of

Jan $66.36 Feb $70.95 Mar $103.13 Apr $117.29

My Hedge Expense by Month

Jan $0 Feb $65,504 Mar $9,531,829 Apr $13,555,920 Total $23,153,253

I have calculated the Jubilee Cargos using a progression of the order of loads calculated from the above website https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

We have used satellite data for loading times and the above data for cargo attribution.

If anyone has constructive data to add to my model I would appreciate it. My purpose is to get it correct if I am missing stuff let me know. But do not simply criticise without facts data sources and calculations to back it up

I forgot to add the cargo details below are only for jubilee, TEN also has a similar cargo and an estimate this year of around 4-4.5 cargos pa. The sales numbers below include one TEN cargo estimated to be shipped in Feb 26.

@honorablevictory

Its a bit more complex than that

Tullow has two oil fields each with numerous wells pumping to a production platform. A cargo is around 950,000 barrels. When a production platform has enough for a cargo an oil tanker picks it up. The price for the load is the Platts Dated Brent on the four days around bill of lading. However at the recent earnings call we were told that Tullow is earning a West African Premium of $12 a barrel over PDB. The Tullow load is shared with Petro SA so on a Tullow cargo Tullow sells around 888,033 barrels. The cargos are shipped in order generally KOS and Tullow/Pero SA each gets one every month and Ghana one every quarter.

Part of these cargos are hedged. The hedges work on Platts Dated Brent on a daily price. So the hedging works on a different quantity and different dates with different prices. My calculation for Gross earnings net of hedge costs for Jan-Apr 2026 is Gross sales 424,897,150 Hedge costs 23,153,253 Net of hedge costs for 4 months $401,743,896.

Many thanks @xxnjr That's going to be really interesting. Its going to allow us to estimate how much surplus cash is sloshing around on Tullow's books. This also reaffirms my position that Tullow will never pay a full years interest on their new debt profile. 1. Because in YE 26 5 months will be paid on the original debt structure which was at much lower rates and 2. In November 2026 the senior debt will be automatically reduced by the surplus cash in the system. That combined with the oil field revaluation should allow Tullow to refinance

I have also been looking at the oil curve movement. As we are now on war day 73 the markets are beginning to realise this is going on for some time. In the early days all the movement was in the front end of the curve. Now when the short end moves the whole curve moves in substantial amounts. This will really help Tullow when it audits its oil fields next month. The YE 2025 valuation was based on oil values of $61.29 for 2026 to $66.24 for 2030. The current values are $78.60 for Dec 27 and $73 for Dec 30. Added to this are the fact that Ghana is building a gas processing plant for the TEN gas field (currently because no gas agreement is in place the TEN field has a negative value of $49.8m on the books of Tullow), we will have also disposed of the Cote D' Ivoire field which also had a negative value of $48.8m. In addition due to the lease extension from 2036 to 2040 we will have 4 more years of oil production going into the PV calculation. So higher oil prices a longer lease and shortly a Gas processing agreement for the TEN field. This higher valuation combined with the automated senior debt reduction will enable Tullow to refinance on much more favourable terms.

So its Monday Morning again we are now day 3 of week 11 of war. That's war day 73. Donald is distracted by his visit to China and so I believe his oil price suppression campaign will be muted this week. Brent July Future is trading at $105, the estimate on Platts dated Brent premium is $7 and the West African oil premium is $12 so if Tullow was selling oil it would be around $124.00. Our next cargo is due out around 28/05/26 so we have 17 days to get the price up. I suspect by then we will be trading missiles and tanks will be running dry so I think that this is going to happen.

Meanwhile Tullow's debt has been upgraded to CCC+. I was rereading the Tullow accounts this weekend and I spotted something interesting. I was wondering what Tullow was going to do with all of its surplus money. I noted that the semi annual cash sweep system that I knew was in place to fund PIYC interest ie Pay If You Can works on the basis that interest is paid if surplus cash is available. What I did not spot is the cash sweep will also use surplus funds to pay of Senior debt on a "Semi Annual Basis " as the bonds run May to May I am presuming that this will hit November 2026 and May 2027. As such we should see a substantial senior debt reduction In November. @xxnjr do you think that my interpretation is correct??

Mmmm oil rising its almost as if the market expects bad news on Saturday afternoon (err like every Saturday afternoon) with the result oil spikes on Monday morning in Asia (due to the justifiable belief the lights are going out) the US traders can close their longs on the way home from the bars (US time) just before good news rings out as New York opens. Easy money

us officials say they do not want to discuss what is happening in negotiations with iran in public. what we do understand is that these negotiations are happening both indirectly, through ****stani mediators, as well as occasionally directly.

we’ve heard words of optimism from many in the trump administration, with one official saying this is the closest that we are to the end of the conflict since it began. president trump has also sounded optimistic in recent days. he also pulled back “project freedom”, in what was a very short-term attempt by the us to organise shipping through the strait of hormuz.

it would appear that there is an attempt to meet some kind of reciprocal arrangement, although trump continues to insist on the red lines he says are included in the latest memorandum that has been delivered to iran.

direct from our source who has just bet his pension on a lower oil price. however such data may be subject to revision after market close tonight. for more updates please visit him at his private suite at spearmint rhino gentlemen's lounge where he will be shortly bathing in champagne

Iranian media reports clashes between Iranian forces, US vessels in Hormuz

Iran’s Fars news agency is reporting “sporadic clashes” over the last hour between Iranian forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tomorrow is the start of week 11 of Trumps five day war. I wonder if it will last longer than the Russia Ukraine three day war which is today on to day 1535. For some strange reason oil is 20% cheaper today than it was two months ago on March 9th when WTI was around $120 a barrel. ie war on going for 2 month with massive destruction. 13 MBPD of Gulf oil shut in with massive infrastructure destruction. An actual battle yesterday in the Strait between 3 US destroyers fighting off drones fast attack boats and missiles. No or very little oil leaving the gulf for 10 weeks. The tanker fleet either crippled with bottom growth in the strait or 50 days steaming away to the gulf of Mexico.

At some stage gravity will exert itself I think it will start kicking in around May 26th when Tullow loads its next cargo. Meanwhile Trump is helping out Tullow by artificially depressing oil prices (and the cost of our oil hedges) The oil hedges are calculated on the average of the 20 days PDB. So each trading day is effectively 1.5 days in a month. So when we sell our oil on 28/05/26 at $230 a barrel (TonyB33 projection) our hedge cost today will be based on $100 oil, not only that because yesterday was $98 and the day before was $96 we can say an average for the three days of $98. but that's 3 trading days but due to weekends 5 projected days for hedge calculations. So the difference in expenses for Tullow for those 5 days for May will be at $98 255,106 x 5 = $1,275,530 however the cost at $230 would be $1,601,506 x 5 = $8,007,530 so Trump spoofing the oil market for 3 trading days has made Tullow $6,732,000.

@antonvb We already know its going to be good news because its Friday. Hurray it will be delivered in the last 15 mins of UK trade and quietly contradicted sometime on Saturday afternoon. However late Sunday more good news. Its almost as if someone was betting on manipulating the markets. But that would be unlawful so its not going to happen.

Bad news or policy reversals comes on Tuesdays so yes good news today and every Friday

*************rezistancetrench1/64952

I have been watching the oil curve. What I have found interesting is during the first 3-4 weeks of the war the movement was all in the front end of the curve. over the next 3-4 weeks the back end of the curve started to move with the front end ie traders started to listen to Mr Trump say war is over and they started to wonder (possibly because by week 8 they had heard it 8 times). But now I am noticing that the back end is now more responsive than the front end.

For example Brent July 26 has risen $0.40 a barrel today but Brent Dec 26 is up $0.597 and Brent June 2027 is up $0.997 the back end is rising faster than the front end. Its almost as if the traders are cottoning on this war is going to be going for some time.

@shis3834

Tullow has refinanced it debt

$1.210,000,000 @ 15% Until 2028

$428,000,000 @17.16% Until 2030

You must be correct because Mr Trump has said that the war is almost finished and Mr Trump does not lie. Today is the end of war week 10. Every week Mr Trump has said the war is over including this week. Next week Mr Trump will again say that the war is over, he will of course be correct (well he will be one week). Yesterday 3 USA destroyers fought through a maelstrom of missiles drones and fast attack boats. Mr Trump called this a lover kiss. Please see my history on previous statements on Mr Trump saying the war is over. I won last month's forecast for the Tullow cargo price. My estimate for this months cargo on 28/05/26 is $230 a barrel. Please fell free to put your guess up it will go up on the board purely for bragging rights.