Member Info for Tonyb33

This is very conservative accounting as they seem to be booking the hedge expenses for Jan-May against actual production for Jan April

There is two sets of data

The shipping data from Ghana https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

And todays AGM statement.

Note that the AGM statement states

Average pre-hedge oil price realisations for five cargos, from January to May, of c.$96/bbl (c.$87/bbl post-hedge), with

Tullow’s May Jubilee cargo achieving $119/bbl.

Now we know TEN has produced a cargo in February as we were told in the last meeting so the other 4 cargos are the jubilee for January-April. I believe this is misleading possibly because the cargo I have down as 30/04/26 at $120 they have booked as a May cargo and they have not included the oil produced in May which has been shipped 08/06/26. As such they are showing the actual cargos sold not produced. The Cargo for 08/06/026 I have down as a May cargo because that's when the oil was actually produced.

One thing no being communicated is that the March May period is a quiet one for oil demand. As we pass into June the summer driving season commences and the AC gets cranked up. Oil demand increases proportionately as such the oil consumption per week will accelerate. Hence the massive increase in oil reserve drop as compared to prior weeks.

Trump has just done Tullow a favour. The oil for May is sold next cargo is 03/07/26. Meanwhile the hedging costs for Tullow are being reduced. Well done Orange Man

Actually 6 cargos shipped

Jubilee

26/01/26 $67.70

06/03/26 $95.74

02/04/26 $139.00

30/04/26 $139.61

08/06/26 $114.00

One TEN

16/02/26 $70.81

My Numbers for the 5 months are

Sales Net of Hedging Barrels sold 5,376,234 Value Barrels sold gross of hedging 494,171,759 Net of hedging 460,220,318

Stock Gain (Loss) Jubilee Production 4,098,811 TEN Production 1,275,217 less sold 5,376,234= (2,206) at $101.84 = $224,659

Plus Gas 3,333,333 x 5 = $16,666,667

So 5 months Revenue net of hedging 476,662,326

I doubt it. What I like about this new team is they are sticking to their knitting. Just keep knocking out the barrels and keeping the overhead down. Hence the 2025 accounts no longer a multi colour bible of worthy causes but a black and white cut down and to the point. One extra thing to watch out for the USD has substantially appreciated against the Cedi this year that should also reduce overheads. We might get guidance on H1 results they are alreayd halfway through June with only one cargo left to ship.

A further thing to look out for is how are the new wells doing and when the new injection well kicks in and the expected field output.

Keep an eye out for the H2 hedging policy, I note Kosmos has restricted their upper oil price hedging. It may well be that Tullow has done the same.

My Numbers for the 5 months are

Sales Net of Hedging Barrels sold 5,376,234 Value Barrels sold gross of hedging 494,171,759 Net of hedging 460,220,318

Stock Gain (Loss) Jubilee Production 4,098,811 TEN Production 1,275,217 less sold 5,376,234= (2,206) at $101.84 = $224,659

Plus Gas 3,333,333 x 5 = $16,666,667

So 5 months Revenue net of hedging 476,662,326

Sorry its a bit more complex

Looking at the Bonny lite number its has not updated correctly on oil price so lets still go with the $12 premium from the last Tullow conference call.

I have metered the oil production and draw the standard cargo is 950,000 barrels and Tullow shares its cargo space with Petro SA. So Tullow gets 888.033 barrels on a standard Jubilee cargo. I have calculated $98 Brent August Future $4 Platts Dated Brent (PDB) Premium plus $12 West African Premium Thats $114 times 888,033 barrels of $101,235,762.

The hedges work on a daily basis the average of PDB trading days for the month. PDB in May varied from $118.26 on 01/05/26 to $92.88 on 29/05/26 we had 19 trading days in May at an average of $107.14 That equated to a cost of $348.329 a day or $10,798,188 for the month.

So May Oil sold was $101,235,762 - 10,798,188 = $90,437,574. or $101.84 per barrel

On top of that we had gas sales i am working on $40m pa so $3,333,333

On top of that we have stock movement for May I have Jubilee Production for May 933,741 plus TEN 239,157 barrels less sold 888,033 so stock increased by 284,865 at $101.84 per barrel that's an additional $29,010,651

So total Gross income net of hedging for May should be $90,437,574 + 29,010,651 + 3,333,333 = $122,781,558

Crude oil differentials (the premium or discount) for West African (WAF) grades—such as Nigeria's Bonny Light or Qua Iboe and Angola's Cabinda—relative to Platts Dated Brent fluctuate constantly based on daily physical market conditions, freight costs, and global refining demand.

1:43 am CDT 08/06/2026

Bonny Light

122.13 +16.76%

Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran's sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran's energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini - a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf - the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran’s oil ministry.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) released color footage of strikes on an Iranian air defense system in Iran. Per the IDF release, Israel has gained relative air superiority over western and central Iran and have struck a number of air defense systems in these areas. pic.twitter.com/WjEPzqSu3H

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 8, 2026

Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.

One interesting thing here is that Iran has not only stated but actually done is when its oil industry hardware is hit it immediately strikes a gulf country's oil infrastructure of equal size and importance. Because of this USA/Israel has generally avoided attacking such infrastructure the last time when Iran's Gas wells were attacked it wiped out 20% of Qatar's Ras Laffan gas field putting it out of commission for 3 years. I believe Israel has done this deliberately to get an Iranian response at the cost of critical oil infrastructure.

The Iranians know that it is physically impossible to put boots on the ground in Iran in the summer heat. They will keep this going until oil prices force Trump to crack. Bear in mind the spring months are the low oil consumption months between the cold winter months (high usage) and the high AC/ driving season (high usage). Oil consumption will start ratcheting up now. The salt caverns holding the oil emergency reserves have never been this depleted and no one knows how much oil can be removed before the structure actually collapses.

The Iranians will still be negotiating at Christmas all to play for. If this keeps going on for another 5 weeks Tullow will have an additional 4 cargos (additional to today's cargo) shipped at very high prices this will make a big impact on the 15/09/26 cash sweep and senior debt reduction.

Just to clarify the top pf the bull Flag was 12.04 on 27/04/26 and was broken on the 28/04/26. The current bull flag upper limit is 16.30 and falling Mea Culpa

For anyone interested Tullow has forming yet another Bull Flag and its getting close to breaking out. Currently the Bull flag upper range is 16.30 and falling. the last time that line was broken on 26 April Tullow rose by 59% Tullow has hit 16.10 this morning. A good omen for this weeks AGM.

A big day today its cargo day. Brent August future will shortly be hitting $98 a barrel say a $4 Platts Dated Brent premium plus a $12 West African Premium I am calling Mays Jubilee Cargo at $114 a barrel. May 2026 Hedge cost was $10,798,188 Gross May Revenue $101,235,762 net fo hedge cost revenue $90,437,574 That gives a net of hedging price of oil for May of $101.84.

Cumulative Sales to May 26 Barrels 5,376,234 Oil Gross of hedging $560,056,292 Net of hedging $526,104,851 Average Cum Net of hedging Barrels sold $97.86 a barrel. Stock adjustment Total Production Barrels 5,374,028 Jubilee sold 4,445,793 TEN sold 930,441 Destock barrels (2,206) net reduction in stock value $215,882.74.

Trump Bingo

1. Monday War week 15 Day 3 commences fighting restarts Monday Check

2. Oil up Monday Check

3. Tullow up Monday Check

4. Israel fires missiles at Beirut and Iran Check

5. Iran shoots missiles at ships and UAE and Israel Check

6. USA bombs missiles and sinks speed boats (in self defence) Check

7. VP Vance says we are just waiting on finalising the deal Check

8. Another 100m barrels of oil reserves are used up Check

9. This message will automatically reset for war week 16 in 4 days time Check

I have a full card Housey Housey (Or for those living in Beirut or Tehran house on fire0

We are now coming up to a strategic window. On Monday 8th June we ship the May Jubilee Cargo @xnjr can you please check and see if you can confirm the tanker dates??

After that we have two cargos in July

Jubilee 03/07/26 and 27/0726

And two cargos in August

Jubilee 01/09/26 and TEN 7/08/26

Bear in mind a tanker from the gulf normally takes 40 -45 days to reach its destination Ghana is on the West Coast of Africa a cargo can get to Europe in 10-12 days. I know most of the Tullow cargos go to China but the prices are set by equivalent cargos. Now that 40-45 days is a tanker with a clean bottom. The tankers in the gulf have been stationary in a warm water area for nearly 4 months. Without treatment the ships could take another 5-10 days.

This means there are 87 days until 01/09/26. However if you take off the extra 45 days a Gulf tanker will take over an African tanker we are in a 42 day window. A window in which oil tanks will be emptying and buyers will be desperate for oil. If we can get a premium price say $150+ for three or four of these cargoes we could knock off an additional $200m of senior debt come cash call on 15/09/26. The clock is ticking.

Sorry one other thing to point out the sales price is actual barrels sold not barrels produced. My cum barrels produced to May 2026 is 5,374,028 so we have a stock adjustment of 3,422 barrels extra income at say $100 that's an extra $342,200. Every little helps.

The trouble is they always seem to provide a confusing picture. They constantly switch from one unit of measure to another Gross barrels per day net barrels per day Gross dales net sales net of hedging sales. Financing costs lease costs etc. Its only when you literally break down each figure and test it you can actually start to make sense of it. I am still not there yet but i do a bit more every day. By the way those numbers are oil sales net of hedging costs they do not include gas sales or Uganda Revenue

One other statistic I though people would like is i have calculated the cumulative net of hedge cost price per barrel

Which at 31/05/26 is 5,370,606 barrels sold at a net of $97.56 giving net of hedge revenue for 5 months of $523,947,776