Member Info for Tonyb33

The reality is China bought and stored over 1 billion barrels of oil when oil was below $60 a barrel. It is being briefed by Iran as to its strategy. Note over Trump's visit to China Iran let a lot of oil out which went to China. China could then sell an equal amount into the market for a vast profit. China is the C in BRICS the R is Russia who is now able to sell its oil in the market due to the Strait being closed. Russia will provide anything Iran asks for so long as they keep the Strait closed.

The whole BRICS concept is that the BRICS countries supply most of the West's commodities but due to market manipulation 1. Rigged futures markets that depress prices 2. Forced to trade in USD 3. Forced to store surpluses in USD Treasury bonds whilst USA runs multi trillion fiscal deficits. Th eBRICS concept develop a non SWIFT money transfer system, trade in a BRICS trading currency based on commodities and precious metals and trade in a market where traders have actual physical goods to trade. That way their citizens can get a fair price for their commodities. This is death to the USA which is based on printing money and manipulation of commodity markets to maintain US living standards. The USA consumes 25% of the world's oil with a few hundred million citizens. The moment the world gets fair the USA will face plunging living standards. That's why they are attacking Iran. Three leaders have raised the issue of not selling oil in USD they were Saddam Hussein Colonel Gadhafi and the late Ayatollah. One was hung one stabbed the other blown up.

Its Friday so the US have announced a peace agreement

1. The Algos have sold off oil

2. Its all agreed apart from Donald he does not agree and er the Ayatollah he does not agree either

3. Never mind Tullow is not selling oil this week but the lower oil price will reduce its hedging costs

4. Just like last Friday err isn't this the same peace agreement that last Friday VP Vance would be finalised in hours

5. The US hit Iran with a missile, Iran returned a missile to a US base but it was intercepted

6. Four US ships entering the gulf were fired on and they turned around

7. Israel fired missiles at Beirut

Please watch for Trump Bingo

1. Tomorrow War week 14 commences fighting restarts Monday 2. Oil up Monday

3. Tullow up Monday

4. Israel fires missiles at Beirut

5. Iran shoots missile at ship and UAE

6. USA bombs missiles and sinks speed boats

7. VP Vance says we are just waiting on finalising the deal

8. Another 100m barrels of oil reserves are used up

9. This message will automatically reset for war week 15 in 7 days time

There are 83 speculative paper barrels of oil to every physical. The paper market tanked because the contract is actually for July delivery and Donald told them war was over in May. The Futures contract reacts to hype. The Platts dated Brent contract reacts to the Strait of Hormuz physically being open and actual oil laden tankers going through it. If the tankers do not move the Platts Dated Brent doesn't move either. In addition Tulow oil is also getting a premium of $12 over Platts Dated Brent due to being a risk free port.

So if Brent July Future is $97 PBD is $112 and Tullow will be receiving $124

Tullow is subject to a cash sweep on its senior debt. Every 6 months 15/11 and 15/05 for the next two year all cash surplus to operational requirements will be swept and used to reduce its senior debt. Until we can get this number down to an acceptable level for refinancing their is no free cash for new investments. The good news is that the original business plan was based on $65 oil. I believe we can knock a very large hole in the debt this year and be in a position to refinance next.

Once refinanced at non penal interest rates Tullow will rerate.

well guys tomorrow is the end of war week 13 expect the following:

1. its friday so there is a peace breakthrough trump or a minion will say iran is on the phone a ****stani general is flying in with a peace agreement the oil price will drop

2. tullow will drop on the good news

3. israel will drop a few cheeky bombs on beirut and gaza in self defence

4. the usa will fire a few cheeky missiles in self defence

5. iran will send a few drones off to the uae and fishing boats will drop mines in self defence

6. by the opening markets monday 1st of june new week (week 14 in the fifth month of war) oil up tullow up

7. another week another 100m barrels of oil lost for ever and the strategic oil reserves are depleted a bit more

8. a week on monday 08/06/26 tullow ships its may cargo lets hope we get a good price

9. a week on wednesday agm 10/06/26 with prices agreed on 6 of the 7 h1 2026 cargos we should get good guidance on h1 numbers and the hedging policy for h2 2026

its all good

The relationship between paper barrels on the future exchange and physical barrels is 83 to 1. The futures are traded for various reasons hedging, market exposure or simply pure speculation. It has not helped that we now have a US president who is deliberately spoofing the market. However this is actually helping Tullow because it is reducing hedge costs whilst Tullow have been exceptionally lucky as to when their cargos have actually been sold they have done so in narrow windows when prices were exceptional.

We are almost at the end of war week 13. This has no end in sight with declaration of peace on Friday a bank holiday weekend with constant messages of peace any hour (Rubio) followed by bombing of Iranian ports and ships on the following Tuesday once the markets were open followed by bombing of Gaza and Beirut. What is currently being discussed is not a peace deal buy a memorandum of Understanding literally a list of things that negotiators can actually discuss. Even and that's a big Even agreement was reached that's just the start of the negotiations not the end. Then we need to clear he mines note the reason for the bombing this week was more mines not less mines. Do you think Iran is not going to be very slow in removing them. With the mines in place there is just a narrow mine free channel for ships subject to Iranian inspection to move. Then there is the insurance. Even if a tanker gets out not many are coming back. The clock is ticking its June next week a few weeks later July I expect this to still be impacting the market in December 2027.

The reality of Tullow is that it pumps oil from multiple well heads into a tank, and then takes turns with fellow partners and the government in selling cargos. Todate in H1 2026 it has sold 5 there are 2 left which are running roughly every 13 days so 08/06/26 and 03/07/26. In addition in H1 2026 Tullow has two one off circumstances. 1. The release of accelerated interest from the early termination of the IFRS16 lease which will credit at least $100m to p&L and the revaluation of the oil field based on $90-$100 oil instead of $62 oil and that the oil leases will be 4 years longer than the last time they were measured for H2 2025.

The person who is in charge of this is Richard Miller the Finance Director. He has decided to purchase £20k of Tullow Shares at 17p. Of everyone he has a very good idea of H1 2026 results he simply has to plug in the price of the next two cargos. Due to Tullow's physical location and the state of the physical oil market (and not the paper) the 03/07/26 cargo can get to Europe from Ghana than a physical load leaving the gulf today. So regardless of what happens between now and those two cargos being shipped the physical price will be at a premium.

If the Finance Director is buying at 17p its pretty certain the shares are worth more than 17p

So Brent July Future back above $100D

Current Platts dated Brent Premium $4

West Africa Premium $12

Ghana is taking a cargo today that $116 a barrel oil

Tullows Budget was based on $65 oil

At $100 oil Tullow Free Cash Flow guidance $175m

For every $10 above that number an additional $30m we have currently had two cargos $139 02/04/26 and $130 30/4/26 the next cargo 08/06/26

We have four interesting dates before then

1. June 10th This will give guidance on H1 by that time we will have prices on 6 of the 7 loads to be shipped in H1 the guidance on the release of accelerated interest on the early termination of the IFRS16 lease and a good idea of the oil prices going into the oilfield revaluation.

2. 1st Week August this will be the H1 results which I expect will show 5-10p EPS

3. 15th September this is the cash sweep which will sweep all excess cash from Tullow and automatically reduce the Senior debt. With luck this will be in the $100-$200m dependent on how much of Ghana's arrears are settled

4. 3rd week September this will show the oil field revaluation based on Dec 26 oil in the $90 range as opposed to Dec 27 oil in the $62 range together with the oilfield leases in 2026 being 4 years longer

By YE 26 Tullow will be in a lot stronger position able to clear debt and refinance

However Brent is now rising it just hit $99.20 I might get lucky

Mea Culpa $114 it is

A few points

1. Rubio at the weekend talking about opening the Strait stated that it would soon be open. However he also said something telling he said one way or another. The other being by force

2. The attacks over the weekend were on ships laying mines. A term of the agreement supposedly being negotiated was that Iran would in the first 30 days of the new agreement clear the mines in the Strait. With Mines in the Strait ships can only come and go in the non mined channel very close to Iran's coastline where they can be easily attacked by drones. If the peace talks are so advanced why is Iran planting more mines. Presumably to delay opening the Strait so by the time the terms of the 440 Kg of 60% enriched Uranium come to be finalised the West will be out of oil. Note for a nuclear power station you only need about 4% enrichment 60% is purely for making bombs.

3. Trump has consistently spoke about peace being finalised on Friday to depress oil prices and war sparks up on Monday. I wonder is it because if prices drop on Friday they are effectively low for 3 days as the markets are closed and hence influence key indexes.

4. Ghana takes a cargo today Brent July Future $98 Platts Dated Brent Premium $4 West Africa Premium $12 that's $124 oil

5. Trumps games has depressed oil prices in May which has been good for Tullow as it is a Ghana month so no Tullow Cargo has been shipped the May Tullow cargo is shipped 08/06/26. The good thing is that Tullow's hedging expense has been reduced by lower oil prices lets hope that the cargo shipped in June gets a good price. I believe it will because the Strait will still be closed.

6. Tullow's final cargo of H1 is shipped 03/07/26 . A cargo shipped from Ghana on 03/07/26 will reach Europe 7 days earlier than a cargo leaving the Gulf today. Even though the cargo is probably going to China the market influence will ensure a premium price.

So the Strait is still closed. We have a bank holiday so the first day of trading will be Tuesday that's half way through week 13 of the strait being closed. The US has confirmed the presence of mines in the Strait. There is a extended ceasefire of 30-60 days. During that time the Iranians have promised fee passage (which they will not allow) and the US have agreed to let the Iranians clear their oil storage tanks (which they will do so very slowly). The Israelis will agree to not attacking hezbolah or Gaza or the West Bank yes they will ignore that too.

The Iranians will not give up the enriched uranium and will want to control the Strait. What this means is more oil flowing but not enough. Plus it will not arrive for two months by which time the agreement will have broken down but the Iranians will have emptied their storage tanks.

Meanwhile prices will maintain elevated in the $90-100 WTI which is $95-105 Brent Future and Platts dated Brent around $110 plus West Africa Premium $12 Tullow will be selling oil for $120+.

By 10 June Tullow will announce its current trading and by 1st Week August 2026 H1 trading which will show 5p-.10p per share. If teh dispute is still going by August prices will be elevated for 18 months by which time Tullow will be able to reduce its debt pile by $400m and refinance

We know what oil has been sold

https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

We know the price

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm

So far we have one cargo 16/02/26 TEN 930,441 barrels $70.81

We have 4 Jubilee cargoes

26/01/26 893,661 @$67.70

06/03/26 890,545 @$95.74

02/04/26 890,545 @$139.61

30/04/26 890,545 @136.24

The hedging costs are

Jan 26 Zero

Feb 26 $65,504

Mar 26 9,531,829

Apr 26 13,555,920

Anyone looking at the geography of the strait would know an 18 year old boy in a cave with a drone can stop a super tanker. The US have admitted that they have found mines. The Iranians have the technology to drop more you only need one. The USA have estimated it will take 6 months to clear the mines and that only if the Iranians are not using drones to drop a few more. On top of that will be reopening the shut in wells. Last time Iran tried it they lost 1/3 of output and the Iraqis don't have the money its redrilling 5,000 wells. Further the latest news is even Russia is now shutting down 400 wells teh export facilities are on fire and the cracking towers on their refineries have been destroyed there is no where to put the oil. Plus the last time this happened they needed western technology to reopen them which is currently sanctioned.

Even if they clear all of the ground back beyond drone range, destroy the long range drones and clear the mines. The real problem will be tanker insurance and the willingness of owners to risk their ships and men. This has already happened in the Red sea The Houtie rebels are no longer attacking ships, but even aircraft carriers are avoiding it just in case. Tanker traffic is a fraction of what it was.

We know what oil has been sold

https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

We know the price

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm

So far we have one cargo 16/02/26 TEN 930,441 barrels $70.81

We have 4 Jubilee cargoes

26/01/26 893,661 @$67.70

06/03/26 890,545 @$95.74

02/04/26 890,545 @$139.61

30/04/26 890,545 @136.24

The hedging costs are

Jan 26 Zero

Feb 26 $65,504

Mar 26 9,531,829

Apr 26 13,555,920

This is actually in Tullow's favour. Tullow's actual sales are only when a cargo is dispatched being the average PDB prices around date of lading. Due to Ghana taking a load each quarter Tullow's May cargo doesn't ship until 08/06/26. However its hedging costs are calculated on average monthly PDB. So by Trump's constant spoofing the market to depress oil prices he actually depresses hedging expenses.

My calculations on the May hedge expense is based on released PDB prices until 18/05/26 the hedge expense is calculated on an average PDB of $110.10 for 11 trading days up to 18/05/26. Trumps recent spoof has pushed Brent Future below $110 and so the final price for May could actually be lower than $110. However I believe by 08/06/26 when the May cargo is shipped things will be breaking down and we will be in week 14 of the war as such I expect substantially higher oil prices.

The June cargo will leave 03/07/26 the reality is a cargo leaving Ghana on the 03/07/26 can get to Europe faster than a cargo leaving the Gulf today and this will be reflected in the sales price I do not believe this dispute will be sorted by then and this cargo will be the last one o f H1 2026.

Trump has done this every week. The problem is everyone knows what he is doing, but the market also knows its a one way trade and has to jump on board. Actually this favours Tullow. Tullow only sets prices in the four days around a bill of lading on a cargo shipment. Due to Ghana taking a cargo in May Tullow is not actually selling a cargo in May. Its may Cargo gets sold on 8/06/26.

All the work Trump has done to push oil prices down has also pushed down the cost of Tullow's oil hedges. I now have the PDB prices for May through to 18/05/26. We are currently showing an average PDB for May for hedging purposes of $110.10. I fully expect the actual price Tullow receives on 08/06/26 for its Jubilee cargo to be in excess of $150 (inclusive of West African Oil Premium)

There are two sets of thinking. One that of a New York property dealer who wants to get a deal. The other Arab politicians whose only paces are slow and glacial. The only card that the Iranians have is the Gulf of Hormuz they will not give it up lightly.

The Iranian oil wells are such that the last time they were shut in the flow rate halved when they were reopened. As such if they go under, they will do their best to ensure that if they are selling half the oil, it will be for twice the price so expect general oil infrastructure disruption.

Their only winning position is to hold out until November and get Donald to be reigned in by the US voters.

One other interesting issue after the Houties closed the Red Sea even years after the event shipping volumes have still collapsed whether from alternative routes being established, punitive insurance rates, or owners not wanting to risk their ships. Even if this dispute gets resolved, the mines removed, the bottle jam released I still think shipping volumes will not recover and the African oil premium will not only remain but improve.

Keep in touch @xxnjr you are a very knowledgeable person thank you for your advice

1. The Brent price quoted is July Brent Future Tullow does not sell oil on Brent July Future

2. Tullow only sell oil on the four days over a bill of lading date next cargo is 08/06/26

3. When it does sell oil its priced on Platts dated brent with a West African premium. Todays PDB premium over BF is $5.21 and the West African premium is $12

4. Tullow hedges its oil position on an average of month PDB prices so low oil prices outside a bill of lading period makes Tullow more money because it drops hedging costs

5. It also is a buying opportunity because uninformed shareholders sell because they think lower July Brent Futures oil prices means lower profit when in fact it is quite the reverse. They are selling on the wrong index not realising that the lower price actually makes Tullow more money