Member Info for Tonyb33

Sorry one other thing to point out the sales price is actual barrels sold not barrels produced. My cum barrels produced to May 2026 is 5,374,028 so we have a stock adjustment of 3,422 barrels extra income at say $100 that's an extra $342,200. Every little helps.

The trouble is they always seem to provide a confusing picture. They constantly switch from one unit of measure to another Gross barrels per day net barrels per day Gross dales net sales net of hedging sales. Financing costs lease costs etc. Its only when you literally break down each figure and test it you can actually start to make sense of it. I am still not there yet but i do a bit more every day. By the way those numbers are oil sales net of hedging costs they do not include gas sales or Uganda Revenue

One other statistic I though people would like is i have calculated the cumulative net of hedge cost price per barrel

Which at 31/05/26 is 5,370,606 barrels sold at a net of $97.56 giving net of hedge revenue for 5 months of $523,947,776

@antonvb

No I have built a model by barrel based on the Tullow data based on the following positions

Floor 3,750 at $58.20

Collar 10,200 at Floor 58.48 Cap 75.17

3 Way Collar 2,224 at Floor 57.99 Cap 69.90 Call 79.90

For May with 19 PDB days gives an average of $107.14 PDB

That gives an average daily hedge expense of $348,329 or $10,78,188

I am currently estimating revenue of a 888,033 cargo at $112.00 (Brent Aug $96 PDB Premium $4 West Africa Premium $12) which gives gross revenue of $99,459,696 net of hedge costs is net revenue $88,661,508. This gives a net of hedging revenue of $99.84 a barrel. Just as a side note guidance of $100 a barrel for Mar-Dec 26 barrels would give free cash flow of $175m. My calculations as at 31/05/26 is due to higher prices achieved we have generate an extra $46,578,733 Pre tax and $30,276,177 post tax.

I now have the PDB numbers for May 26. The hedging cost for May 26 was based on PDB falling from $118.26 on 01/05/26 to $92.88 on 29/05/26. source https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm. This has given an average PDB for May 26 of $107.14. The Tullow hedging expense for May 26 is $10,798,188. I would like to congratulate Mr Trump for all of his warnings on immanent war end for depressing the hedging expense. The May cargo will be shipped on 08/26/26 as Ghana took the second May cargo last month. I am currently expecting $112 a barrel but who knows something could happen over the weekend

Hi @TheBigPicture

My model is based on Jan 26 Jubilee 60,000 gross BPD plus 10k from J74P Jan 26 8k J75P Mar 26 6.667K each J76P & J77P Jun 26 and J50P 6.667k Jul 26

TEN 16,000 Gross BPD that's 8,774 net BPD Jan 26 degrading at 1.67% per month

I assume 1.67%/Month well degrading. That gives Total Net Tullow oil Barrels 36,060 BPD (which is in line with guidance and excludes gas) Jan rising to 37,627 BPD Dec 26 which I think is conservative

Total projected Jubilee 2026 10,893,099 TEN 2,886,840

A Jubilee cargo is 888,033 TEN 930,441

That gives 12.27 Jubilee Cargos and 3.1 TEN

As I said I think these numbers are conservative its based on a well degradation of 5% a quarter which is very conservative in line with the recent feed back on how the FPSO maintenance is reducing field degradation . So I am going with 13 plus 3.5

On Monday Tullow will be shipping its May Jubilee Cargo

Prices todate

Jubilee

26/01/26 $67.70

06/03/26 $95.74

02/04/26 $139 .00

30/04/26 $139.61

TEN Field

16/02/26 $70.81

My estimate for 08/06/26 is

Current August Brent $96.00

Platts Dated Brent Premium $4.00

West African Premium $12.00

My estimate $112.00 Still over $100 a barrel but not as much as I would have liked

Per Gemini

As of the start of June 2026, the CME Dated Brent (Platts) to Frontline Brent Futures (DFL) swap for June settlement is valued at approximately $2.99 per barrel, while the explicit premium for the forward August 2026 structure settles around $3.74 per barrel. Quick Price BreakdownPhysical Premium (Dated Brent to Frontline Future): Over the prompt financial line, physical barrels command an immediate premium hovering around $3.00/bbl.Forward Spread (Dated Brent vs. August Future): Because the forward paper curve drops lower into August (trading near $95–$97/bbl on the back of expected diplomatic resolutions to the Strait of Hormuz blockades), the total premium for prompt, physical wet barrels over the August contract sits at a wider backwardation of roughly $3.70 to $3.75 per barrel.What This Means for the MarketThis wide spread reflects severe prompt market tightness. Refiners and physical traders are willing to pay a heavy premium to secure immediate physical cargoes today because of the physical supply disruption, even though the paper futures curve for August expects prices to soften if shipping tensions ease later this summer.

@Thebigpicture

I know he said it but what I think he meant was 10 Jubilee cargos from April and 2.5 TEN cargos from April. So with the 3 Jubilee shipped and 1 TEN that's 13 plus 3.5.

Jubilee has in effect produced one cargo a month the 3 stated at April were Jan Feb and March the March cargo was shipped 02/04/26. The cargos are actually speeding up there were at one every 14 days up until April but then have accelerated as the new wells come live to 13 and less. These numbers actually tie into the projected production numbers.

Its Friday so the US have announced a peace agreement

1. The Algos have sold off oil

2. Its all agreed apart from Donald he does not agree and er the Ayatollah he does not agree either and Hezbollah certainly does not agree

3. Never mind Tullow is not selling oil this week but the lower oil price will reduce its hedging costs

4. Just like last Friday err isn't this the same peace agreement that Friday two weeks ago VP Vance would be finalised in hours

5. The US hit Iran with a missile, Iran returned a missile to a US base but it was intercepted but they did hit Kuwait international airport

6. An Iranian tanker entering the gulf was fired on

7. Israel fired missiles at Beirut

Please watch for Trump Bingo

1. Tomorrow War week 15 commences fighting restarts Monday

2. Oil up Monday

3. Tullow up Monday

4. Israel fires missiles at Beirut

5. Iran shoots missiles at ships and UAE

6. USA bombs missiles and sinks speed boats

7. VP Vance says we are just waiting on finalising the deal

8. Another 100m barrels of oil reserves are used up

9. This message will automatically reset for war week 16 in 7 days time

@xxnjr Can you please look out of your window and check what day the Jubilee tanker is loading its may cargo I calculate it at 08/06/26. I am working on every 13th day. I am just checking to see whether the new wells are speeding up the process.

@antonvb

If you look at the actuals https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/ the jubilee cargoes were being shipped every 14 day in 2026 however xxnjr confirmed the Ghana cargo on 26/05/26 (which has reduced it to 13). I am presuming its the new wells kicking in so now I am working on every 13 days so next Tullow load I estimate 08/06/26.

However on that projection the 13th Tullow jubilee load will be 11/01/26 and guidance has said we will be billing 13 cargos within YE26. As such I must assume that the new wells coming on board June and July will speed things up and further reduce the number of days between cargos. I am monitoring cargo dates with actuals from @xxnjr.

@antonvb

If its the TEN field that should be a GNPC cargo.

Sorry that should read on a 13 day turnaround my model is showing the 13th jubilee cargo on 11/01/27. Mea Culpa therefore I need to reduce this so as to show the 13th cargo within YE 2026 as per guidance

@antonvb

Thats the May Tullow cargo. I had that down for Bill of lading 08/06/26 can you please let me know when it leaves. Also I would be very grateful if you tell me how you know or where I can see when these tankers are loading. My model is working on a tanker loading every 13 days but with the new wells this number should be reduced.

The last guidance was for 13 jubilee cargoes for YE 2026, on a 13 day gap my model is showing the Tullow 13th cargo on 11/01/26.

Hence I think the new wells are speeding up production and reducing the tanker turnaround time in line with guidance.

Hence any data on how I can check the tankers would be gratefully received

@Scrodingerscat

I have not speculated on the figures.

The dates of the cargos are here https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/ the subsequent dates were prorated based on average and the disclosures on new well production

The PDB prices here https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm.

I have taken the premium over PDB from the last Tullow conference call.

I have built hedging cost models from the latest hedging disclosures.

Re point 5 i did not mention the sale price for 05/03/26 it was $95.74 whilst the hedge was based on $70.95. The $95.74 assumes not West African Oil Premium I am currently calculating that at $12 on top of PDB in line with the latest Tullow guidance. I had originally assumed that this load would have been shipped 21/02/26 but Ghana production reports https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/ show Ghana took that slot. I therefore believe that the $95.74 is a bit low and more probably be in the $100 range as the war in Iran commenced 28/03/26 and would have impacted the price by 05/03/26

5. The hedges are calculated on a daily basis. Trump by constantly telling the world that the war will end immanently has depressed prices on the hedge whilst Tullow has hit very high prices on the narrow window when their oil cargo was shipped. Eg In February in the early weeks oil was still around $70 a barrel the full hedging expense for February only came to $65,504 based on an average PDB price for February of $70.95. But Tullow’s Feb cargo was sold on 06/03/26 (Due to the fact that Ghana took the second cargo in February and so Tullow was pushed back to the first cargo in March. Equally Tullow’s March hedging costs was based on an average PDB price of £103.13 but the cargo was sold on 02/04/26 at a cargo price of $139 due to a blow out in PDB.

6. Many of the disposals Tullow have performed over the last few years have legacy revenue deals. For example the Ugandan disposal provides for 2.5% post tax commission when oil is above $75 a barrel with this kicking in late 2026 which could provide a potential extra $5m a month post tax income.

7. The current debt servicing costs are based on penal interest rates. If this war continues for another two months oil prices will be impacted all the way through to the end of 2027. The current debt set up ensures that after running costs for the company all income will be spent on debt reduction. Once senior debt has been reduced by two years surplus income Tullow will be in a position to refinance at substantially lower interest rates

8. You seem to believe Tullow actually has to pay its debts off to gain any value. You seem to ignore the corresponding asset of the PV of the oilfield that due to geographical location is growing in value daily.

9. I believe that the Tullow story a strategically located oilfields with valuable residual income and debt that could be refinanced at lower rates with a high EPS will attract more and more strategic investors. This will be seen on 10 June when the AGM provides more details

@J.Bond I have read your comments with interest. I don’t think you are correct for the following reasons.

1. Your upside benefit works on a simple Cashflow of oil, but the problems that got Tullow into trouble were not merely cashflow problems but technical accounting issues that worked against the company. As they worked against Tullow when the oil price dropped they will work in Tullow’s favour as the oil price rises

2. Last year Tullow was closed down 14 days for FPSO maintenance this will not hit 2026 or 2027 that’s an extra $50m this year and next

3. Tullow has had an IFRS16 lease on its FPSO platform around $135m pa with a notional interest rate of 16.4%. IFRS16 converts a fixed lease cost into a notional interest charge at the notional Weighted Average Cost of Capital ie what a third party lender would charge an oil company facing insolvency. The effect is to accelerate the interest charge into the early years of the lease. The effect instead of charging a flat $135m leasing costs you charge $160m of interest in the early years but $80 in the later years. If you early terminate the lease (which Tullow did in feb 26) you not only stop paying interest you release the accelerated interest as income which will impact this financial year. It explains why the Lease Liability is much higher than the Right of Use Asset. Both of these are fiction for accounting purposes when you early terminate the lease they offset each other the surplus goes to profit. Note this accelerated interest was for accounting purposes only not tax. This is why Tullow was being impacted with tax charges in excess of 100% of accounting income

4. Tullow’s depreciation charge is calculated by comparison of the PV of the cashflow of the oilfields less oil extracted. In 2024 oil was based on $75 oil 2025 was based on oil prices 2026 $61.29 2027 $61.68 2028 $63.21 2029 $64.94 and 2030 $66.24 and future years to 2036 on the basis of 2% inflation. The oilfield was calculated until the lease ended in 2036. On top of that Ghana has limited gas processing plant so the gas from TEN was either flared off or reinjected resulting in the TEN field actually having a negative value for PV basis. The drop in value of oil against a shorter lease (2024-2036 V 2025-2036) created a very high depreciation charge in 2025. In 2026 we have a longer lease 2040, plus a higher oil price circa $90 plus Ghana is building a second gas processing plant for TEN gas (GPP2), This new gas license will be priced in terms of current higher gas prices. The boost in year on year oil field valuation will correspondingly decrease depreciation charges. Note as above the depreciation charges are not deductible for taxable profits. The impact of the lower depreciation charges will result in higher accounting profits not subject to corporate taxation the cost reduction will go straight to post tax (EPS) profits.

Iran warns northern Israeli residents to flee if Israel attacks Beirut’s suburbs

Iran’s central military command has warned residents of northern Israel to flee their homes if Israel carries out its threat to strike the southern suburbs of Beirut.

In a statement carried by the government’s IRNA news service, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the warning was a response to the Israeli military’s forced displacement order for Dahiyeh.

“Given the regime’s repeated violations of the ceasefire, if this threat is implemented, we warn residents of the northern parts and military settlements in the occupied territories to leave the area if they do not want to be harmed,” he said.

What is lining up nicely is my models show that after the 08/06/26 Tullow cargo we have 4 cargos in the following weeks just as prices will explode

Jubilee 03/07/26 27/07/26 01/09/26

TEN 17/08/26

If we could hit $160+ cargo prices on these 4 cargos it will make a really big hole in Tullow's senior debt when the first cash sweep is activated on 15/09/26

Well that aged well