Member Info for Tonyb33

Hi @xxnjr

My projection follows the order of the Jubilee Shipments on https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/

Last Shipment on that report was was KOS 23/11/25

The sequence is one early month shipment one late shipment rotating between KOS and Tullow. This is reversed on quarter dates when Ghana takes the second shipment

The continuation would be

Tullow 7/12/25

Ghana 23/12/25

However with the increase in supply we seem to be shipping a cargo every 14 days so the cargos are getting earlier each month with Ghana on the quarter months

Kos early Jan 7

Tullow late Jan 21

Kos Early Feb 4

Tullow late Feb 18

Koss Early March 2

Ghana Late March 16

Tullow 02/04/26

KOS 16/04/26

Tullow 30/04/26

Plus the fact that Tullow said they got $130 for their latest load if it was 16/04/26 according to https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm

Dated Brent was $116.63. on 16.04.26

But PDB was $139 on 02/04/26 less teh $9m of hedging costs would hit $130 a barrel oil for 02/04/26 cargo

A number of issues.

The first is the April 2026 hedging costs what you have to realise is that the April hedge costs are high because PDB was nearly $140 in the early stages of April (I have not put the prices for 18/4/26-30/4/26 yet which is likely to bring the costs down as the prices dropped over the period when Trump declared war over and Strait opened.

The second is that the Cargo dates have fallen really well for Tullow they are currently shipping cargo at end of month and enjoying premium prices. The March Cargo actually was shipped 02/04/26 and got $139 a barrel before hedge costs.

The third that the next Tullow cargo is due to be shipped tomorrow Brent June future is now hitting $117 with the $12 West Africa premium mentioned in the conference call that means $125-130 forthis cargo.

I have also metered out the future cargo loads if we can keep up a cargo load every 14 days as we are currently doing then Tullow's Jubilee should ship its 11th Cargo on 26/12/26.

I think that number is conservative as I believe when we add the late April PDB prices the hedging average will fall. They are heavily skewed by the very high PDB prices in early April.

Currently i have 12 of the April PDB numbers (still waiting on 21/04-30/04 which is another 8 numbers to add). Currently my model is showing an average of $118.43 for April at a hedging cost of $13,904,760. If we call the 30/04/26 at $120 (I am taking Brent June futures plus $12 West African Premium mentioned in yesterdays meeting and splitting the difference).

Gross Proceeds 888,034 barrels at $120 $106,564,029

Hedging costs based on only 12 April Prices Ave 118.43 $13,904,760

After Hedging Proceeds April Cargo $92,659,269

So its maintaining the $90+ a barrel story

I do have a little knowledge on this (I took over my first bank before 30). Most banks hold a substantial portion of their reserves in Treasury bonds. As the yield on bonds rise their price effectively fall. However banks do have a dispensation that if they declare the bonds as long term reserve assets they do not have to mark them to market and they can hide their losses.

The problem comes if someone finds out hence the Silicon Valley Bank that went under. One thing about this war and the petro dollar system is that the gulf have their long term savings in TBonds. As they are not selling oil they are forced to sell TBonds to pay the bills a lot of them. This is pushing the price of TBonds down and TBond yields up. It is also bankrupting most of the banks liquidity will be drying up.

Its further exacerbated by the fact that the expectation this year that interest rates would fall. As such to minimise interest expense the US Treasury has been funding a lot of its liquidity in very short term TBills. This means the US Treasury will be selling a lot of bonds to not only fund their $trillion deficit but also short term TBills coming constantly due with no one to buy them. The normal buyers were the Arabs Japan and China. They are currently net sellers. This has serious implications. My belief is over the medium to long term the USD is toast hence their will be a repricing of hard assets Gold Silver and oil

Further now I have the hedge prices I will have the dated brent prices tomorrow then I can calculate Aprils hedging costs. What the models are showing is as follows:

1. The Hedges are prices on Dated Brent but according to the conference call today the actual prices achieved on West African oil is $12 above

2. Due to Ghana taking a load in the quarter months the order of load take changes every quarter. I have extrapolated the 2025 order and confirmed my projection with the Tullow prices disclosed in the conference call. Tullow moved from early Jan and Feb to Late in March (actually 02/04/26).

3. The 02/04/26 date coincided with a blow out of dated brent over futures brent hence the $130 a barrel net price

4. The significance is that the war started on 28/02/26. In Jan and Feb Tullow took the early load. In March April and May it takes the load later in the month. This is significant because the longer the Strait is closed the higher the oil price. The Hedges price on a daily rate so March started at a price of $77.24 it did not cross $100 until 12th March 2026 and hit $126.69 at month end the blended rate for March on which the hedge is priced I make $103.13 but due to Ghana taking the second load in March Tullow's load was priced at 02/04/26 at $139.

5. Similarly this month the Tullow load is around 30/04/2026 ie 14 days after the last KOS load. So the hedges will be calculated on the average prices for April which due to the market being spoofed with constant assurances that the war was over the hedged prices are a lot lower. (I will be able to calculate the number tomorrow) we as the cargo price will be priced at the 4 days around teh bill of lading. Because thsi is later and the Strait will be closed longer the cargo price will be far higher than the hedging costs

Now we have confirmed the load order we can use the projection to determine whether we will hit the 11 Tullow Jubilee Loads and 3 TEN loads for 2026

Another thing that the presentation has confirmed is my projection of the loading order carried on from Petroleum Ghana November 2025 data. That also confirms the tanker currently on standby is a Tullow Jubilee load for 28/04/2026.

If we take todays brent June future of $112.49 and add the current West African Premium as disclosed in todays call that gives us an estimate of $124.49 a barrel. We still have a couple of days my $150 prediction is still possible :-)

However I think @xxnjr is going to take the prize at $108.

Per Today's 2025 Numbers

"TEN FPSO Purchase

On 19 February 2026, Tullow signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) to acquire the TEN FPSO on behalf of the joint venture

for a gross consideration of $205.0 million ($125.6 million net to Tullow), which is to be paid upon completion at the end of the first

quarter of 2027.

The lease modification to include an obligation to purchase the FPSO, together with the update to the lease term, constitutes a lease

remeasurement in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases. As at the date of the SPA, the remeasurement will result in a reduction in the

lease liability, a reduction in the right-of-use asset, and a corresponding decrease in the receivable from the joint venture partners,

as the value of the gross undiscounted lease payments will decrease from $716.7 million to $424.9 million. As the assessment of the

financial impacts is ongoing, these cannot be disclosed in the Annual Report and Accounts. Accordingly, the relevant disclosure will

be made in the 2026 half-year results."

Translation The FPSO Rig IFRS16 lease was early terminated with a Gross of $291.80m of lease payments outstanding. Tullow's portion is 61.26%. The IFRS16 lease has a Weighted Average Cost of Capital of 16.4%. This is an artificial number as an estimate of what Tullow would have to pay had it borrowed money to buy the original asset under finance.

The point is IFRS16 represents an operating lease ie a flat annual payment as if it was a Finance Lease discounted at 16.4%. The impact (as in most finance agreement) is that the early payments are all interest the later all capital. So the accounting standard accelerate charges into the early years of the lease and reduces them in the later periods (whilst physically paying a flat annual charge). If the lease is early terminated then the accelerated charge from the early periods gets released as a credit to profit & loss on early termination.

$291.8m X 61.265 is $178.77m worth of unpaid lease payments on a lease with an IRR of 16.4% it will release a substantial credit to profit in H1 2026. They are being coy with this one to give a surprise boost the half year numbers

Interesting Q&A one item is that Tullow is currently getting a premium over Brent due to secure location and ease of loading. Currently this is $12 a barrel. All projections given have excluded this premium

Per my model April 2 sale Hedge Cost Mar $9,531,829

Note the Hedge cost was for March 2026 Tullow's March load slipped into April due to Ghana quarter loads

Cargo Sales Value $139@ 950,000 barrels

Per Tullow Release April Realised $130 pretty close

We are now entering the Pricing Period for the next Tullow cargo With Brent June Future in the $111-112 and rapidly rising. Unfortunately the price margin on Platts Dated Brent is muted. However we still have a few more days we might hit $120 which would be nice. What's more due to 40 days steaming from the gulf we know we will hit $110+ a barrel for the late May cargo as well. If the Strait is still blocked then well its going higher.

Based on the numbers given below

Floor 3,750 $58.20

Collar 10,200 $58.48 $75.17

3 way collar 2,224 @57.99 $69.90 $79.90

Cost Jan 26 Nil Cargo Sales Value $66.91

Cost Feb $65,504 Cargo Sales Value $71.28

Cost Mar $9,531,829 Cargo Sales Value $139

I am starting to see more and more traders starting to realise that this is now War Day 59 and no end in sight. Today June Brent Future up 2.127 but the interesting thing is its moving up the curve Dec 26 up 1.887 Dec 27 up 1.576 and even Dec 29 up 1.019. In other words oil is going to be elevated for at least 2 years which will give Tullow enough time to repair its balance sheet.

Tomorrow I will provide a full Hedging analysis

Question today 27/04/26 what is the difference between Dated Brent and June Brent Future

Answer

Today, April 27, 2026, the Brent oil market is experiencing a state of extreme backwardation, characterized by a massive premium for physical oil (Dated Brent) over future delivery contracts. This price gap—often referred to as the Dated-to-Frontline (DFL)—is currently reflecting a global energy supply crisis triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year.

The Numbers (Approximate Market Rates)As of today, the price difference is historically wide:

Benchmark Delivery / Timing Price (USD/bbl)Dated Brent Physical (Immediate Loading)~$132.50

Brent June Future Paper (June 2026 Delivery)~$107.50

Bearing in mind we will shortly be in the loading period for a Tullow Cargo and we are up $2-3 on Friday my $150 prediction is getting there

its funny every friday trump tells the market that he has been contacted by the iranians and the war is over. the markets gets a boost and oil drops in price. over the weekend when the markets are closed and cannot respond the position reverses. last week friday the strait is open saturday closed. this week on friday we were told usa and iran meeting in ****stan sunday its not going to happen and war might start again next week

with luck we will get a nice boost on monday just whilst the next tullow cargo is loading. this helps in two ways.

1. our oil sales price will be boosted when the market opens on monday and rise over the 4 bill of lading days when the cargo sale price is calculated

2. our hedge expense will be reduced by the oil price suppression that has occurred over the last four weeks

The FSPO is accounted for under IFRS16 at a notional interest rate of 16.4%. I understand it was a ten year lease. The question is it is being acquired under a sale and purchase agreement 1st quarter 2026 to be settled in 1st quarter 2027.

If the sale and purchase agreement is signed for 1st quarter 2026 with payment 2027 it should actually produce an interest refund. IFRS 16 works to PV assets under whats called a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) (ie an equivalent interest that the company would be charged from a third patry). Because Tullow is in distress the WACC tends to be high.

Although Tullow pays a physical lease its accounting profits are set by IFRS16 as if Tullow bought the asset on a loan. The accounting impact is to increase the accounting charge in the early period of the lease and reduce it in the later period. The tax is calculated on the lease physically paid.

This has the following effects

1. It increases the tax charge as a percentage of accounting profit in the early periods of the lease and reduces it in the later periods

2. It charges more for lease interest in the early periods and less in the later periods

3. If the lease is early terminated before it naturally ends it in effect releases the accelerated interest as a negative interest charge. Ie income

My calculation for the Uganda Income

230,000 BPD X 33%

Oil over $75PE

2.5% after tax commission

This will be when we get full production and I believe that the 2026 numbers only show Train 1 (110 KBPD) is due Q4 2026 (times 33%) with train 2 due 1H 2027. So it will not get up to full production until 2027 but its getting there

Hi @TDDW

We are now on war day 58 ie week 9