Member Info for Tonyb33

Hi @xxnjr

If you look at the shipping data the cargos do follow a pattern

Its two loads a month (Early and Late) (Tullow/ Petrosa) and KOS but on the quarter dates Ghana has a cargo so the order of the first two reverses.

So I have projected

1 64.51 KOS Early

2 66.91 Tul

3 68.50 KOS Early

4 71.28 Tul

5 93.82 KOS Early

6 107.31 Ghana

7 139.00 Tul 02/04/2026

8 102.00 KOS 16/04/2026

Hi @xxnjr

As I explained in an earlier post I set up the model using 2004 accounts data to wait for the 2026 numbers from the 2025 accounts that are coming out in two weeks time.

As suggested I have now used the H1 2026 numbers from the 2025 Half year figures

Floor 4,500BPD $59.94

These are 3000 BPD Cap at $75.67

Three way collar 174 BPD $57.85 $76.3 $86.3

The cost of these positions for the three months to March is $2,679,013

Plus gas sales $7,360,200

Missed a bit 3 way collar vol 16,500 BPD

Hi

My calculation on 1stt Quarter Sales

Based on Jubilee 60k open plus 10k from J74P plus Gross TEN 13k barrels

Amortisation 1.67% per month

Shipping 888,033 per month

Open stock zero

Closing Stock 381943

Jan at 66.91 59,418,288

Feb at 71.28 63,298,992

Mar at 139 123,436,587

Hedging costs calculated on daily platts Brent

Floors not triggered

Collar 2000 barrels trigger 91.94

3 way collar trigger 92.02 hedged at 102.02

Jan cost zero

Feb cost zero

Mar cost 4,363,675

Valued closing stock at $139 $53,090,015

Total 1st Q sales net of hedge costs $299,243,882

Why are we using average prices.

We know when the cargos were loaded and the Platts Brent price at the date of load

Todate Tullow has had three cargoes

Late Jan $66.91

Late Feb $71.28

In March Ghana has a load so we then move to early April

2nd April $139

That's it those are the prices A load is roughly 950,000 barrels which is shared with Petrosa (93.477% /6.523%) ie 888,033 barrels for Tullow

Hi xxnjr

I have no problem with the hedging its the load price I am interested in. Are you using platts dated brent on 16th or over a range of loading days, ie do you have the equivalent price. This is a KOS cargo so its pointless working the hedges.

I am currently calculating the hedging cost by month. However one thing I am noting the hedges are independent of what has been sold. Ie they are worked on a barrel amount and period. Whilst the loads are sold as at a point in time. Now as the prices are steadily rising this should mitigate the cost of the hedges anyway I am using the 2025 hedges (from the 2024 accounts) as they were roughly the same prices I will put the 2026 numbers in the model when I get them

The reality is that due to the fact that the Refiners know oil is drying up and that the refineries work on a constant process they have reduced throughput to ensure the oil stocks they have go further. The refineries are not designed to stop as if they do there is a lot of work required for them to start again. Thats why Deasil and jet fuel shot up so much that and because we get our jet fuel and deasil from the gulf refineries.

I suspect that the reduced throughputs may have lead to gas build ups or some sort of problem that lead to a fire

Hi @xxnjr

The KOS cargo should be leaving today can you please provide date and cargo price. Any news on drilling rig is it still on J75P??

Jan Cargo $66.91

Feb Cargo $71.28

Apr 2nd $139

KOS cargo should go tomorrow so next Tullow cargo will be about 30/04/26 as this will get to Europe before anything that can leave the gulf estimate $150-200. Then if the gulf is still closed by 3rd May then the 26th May cargo should be $200-250

It is strange 4m bought 2m sold and the price goes lower. I think the market makers are reducing stock levels. Apparently the Iranians have called Trump and begged to surrender. Its strange they do this every week. Satellites are showing the Iranians digging out the bombed entrances to their under mountain missile storage. Meanwhile the Ford aircraft carrier is creeping towards Iran. Its going the long way around so its missing the Red sea. I think they are all coming for the peace celebrations.

The Iranians are lying low and another day passes but no oil passes the Strait. Its war day 47 so 17 days until Saudi Arabia hits maximum storage and shut in. Iran has 7 more days of peace they are asking for another 14. There are a lot of American aircraft flying long pointy things to the gulf. In the last month the USA shot 4 years production of missiles. I personally think they are bring fireworks for the peace celebrations a lot of fireworks. The Iranians make their drones in sheds with Fibreglass wings motor bike engines and a box of electronics from China. They have been perfecting them for 4 years and can make 500 a week. Thats why the US embargo is in the Gulf of Oman and not the Strait. So far still no mine sweepers.

The TV tells us the price of oil is falling they show us Brent June future on which paper oil is traded. Tullow sells actual oil. Tullow's next cargo will be around 30th April. The Tullow field is 12 days from Europe so Tullow oil will get to Europe before Gulf oil departing tomorrow. Except we know oil will not be leaving the gulf tomorrow or even next week. So the price of that cargo will be in the $150-200 range

The real question is will the gulf open before 2-3rd May If Iran gets a two week extension or if Iran does not get an extension I don't think that will happen so the 28th May Tullow cargo will beat Gulf oil to Europe by then it will be $200-$250 a barrel. The real question is what about the 6th July cargo My bet that will be $150+ too.

Tullow are using three way collars

The effect is to take out $10 a barrel in the $95-105 range. Anything above $105 is taken in full

What you have to remember there are a lot of uninformed investors. They are looking at the June Brent Future price of oil which is reacting to the statement by Trump that the Iranians have just called him personally begging for peace. The fact that they are looking at the wrong price and trump has altered the price of oil weekly with this trick well what can I say.

What I do know is whilst Trump is convincing the world the end of the war is near the artificial lower oil price is actually making the war result in that the end of the world is near. We are rapidly running out of available oil. The Iranians know the only way they can win is to hang on and wait for the US electorate to reign Donald in. This they will do once the oil price rises enough. Its a question of which government can take more pain. Given that the Iranian government recently shot 25,000 protestors dead a few months ago I think the Iranians will outlast Trump.

Meanwhile the USA is rearming they shot 4 years worth of missile production in the last month. The Iranians are unblocking their mountain missile storage and gunning up for round 2. Their drones are fibreglass motorbike engine and a box of tech from China their production rate is 500 a week made in garages and light industrial units shot off the back of a lorry.

You will note that currently the USA does not have mine sweepers and its embargo is being done from the safety of the Gulf of Oman. If a US war ship fears to enter the Strait what do you think a tanker captain with 2 million barrels of oil doing 15 mph is going to think about crossing the strait. No this will still be in dispute in 2027 maybe 2028.

Hi @BB_hoppa

Check my posting history I think you may have been reading one of my posts

Hi

The next Cargo should ship around the 16th April can you please inform me what price it hit

Re Uganda can you please supply me the basis of income

Oil field barrels per day

What percentage Tullow gets

Trigger price (is that Platts Spot Brent)

When the income starts

i can see a mention of residual income from Kenya too do you have similar data for that source too ??

The price to watch is Platts Spot Brent that's currently $124.91. You do not even have to watch that. The published Brent price is the June 26 future which is totally irrelevant. Plus the next Tullow cargo is around 30th April by which time the market will be so tight that the Spot Brent will be $40-50 above the Brent June Future. That's already baked in as a 30 April 26 cargo from Ghana can reach Europe before a Gulf cargo leaving today can reach Europe.

The question is will this war be sorted before the 28th May Cargo can get a decent premium. My guess is this will be still in dispute by December 2026.

We are on war day 46 the embargo on Iran will mean that Iran now faces shut in. Saudi has 64 days of oil storage so shortly Saudi will have to systematically shut in its oil fields. Meanwhile Ukraine is systematically destroying Russia's ability to export oil. The tankers have all been rerouted to the gulf of America.

I expect Tullow to hit 100p a share this year

If you look at the Stats 1m more shares were sold than purchased today. The market makers were simply taking the dumb money. The book was about 12.70 yesterday up until 4.31 a single trade knocked it back to 12.58. Watch today the trader have been buying cheap so they will push the price up towards the close. The punters will see a daily gain turn up at 8am tomorrow and that 1m shares will be sold for a good profit. The traders will then knock the price down a touch again.

What we need is some data which will not arrive for at least two weeks meanwhile every day that this strait closure goes on the better for Tullow

I wonder I wonder

Hi @xxnjr

Could you please be so kind to give me the basis of calculation

1. When does income start

2. Number of daily barels production of field

3. How many does Tullow earn on

4. Commission rate and basis of claim (i see 2.5% revenue share net of tax above a certain price could you please supply the trigger price)

I can only assume that the guidance we received for the $180m extra we would receive at $100 oil would have included this additional revenue. But its all good to have.

Are you aware of any other recourse revenue streams on assets that Tullow has disposed off in their debt consolidation??

For some reason people keep going on about WTI (May Future or even more irrelevant Brent Crude June future). We are selling Platts Spot Brent currently $40 over Brent Future. Now with the Houties activated in the Red sea the number I am focused on is the 6th of May which is in about 24 days.

Why is that Tony?? You may ask

Because with the Houties activated they will stop tankers in the Red Sea so the only way for Gulf Oil to get to Europe or the US is via the cape that’s 40 days steaming.

That means the Tullow early May Cargo will get to Europe around 13-14th May will sell for $150-$200 a barrel. The question I have is what will the early June cargo sell for. One consideration is the J75P well that was supposed to come on line end March but the rig is still on the well. If it produces as the J74P well that’s at least another 10,000 BPd which will mean the Early June cargo will fall into late May and get to Europe 12th June. The key point is if this war keeps going on to 6th May we will get a third load in the $150-200 barrel. With the $139 a barrel we got from the early April cargo that’s going to be a gross of around $200m extra on top of the $180m planned for hitting $100 oil.

That’s for a company whose net worth is currently under £190m. If Tullow hits and EPS of 10p a share for 6 months trading what will the share price be when announced 7-8th August 2026 I will be there to see it