Member Info for Tonyb33

Hi @MT100

Next update due in 8 days that will be 2025 full set of accounts

Hi @BB_hoppa

In line with @xxnjr I have taken the hedging guidance levels from the 2025 H1 guidance

9,500 Floors @ $57

3,000 $57.17 Floor $75.67 Caps

174 Triple Collars Floor $57.85 Cap $76.30 Call $86.30

The cost of these hedges

Jan 26 0

Feb 26 0

Mar 26 $2,679,013

Hi @TDDW

Under normal conditions, it takes a large crude oil tanker (VLCC) approximately 20 to 25 days to steam from the Persian Gulf (Strait of Hormuz) to South Korea.

www.mol-service.com

www.mol-service.com

However add 20-30% more time with a heavily fouled bottom

Then add 14 days dry dock

+1

Distance & Speed: The route covers about 6,500–7,000 nautical miles, with vessels traveling at an average speed of 12–14 knots.

Total Voyage Time: Including loading and unloading, a full round trip takes approximately 45 to 50 days.

Detour Impact (2026): As of April 2026, amid Middle East tensions, routes passing through the Red Sea or detouring from traditional routes can extend this trip significantly, with transit times ranging from 35 to 60 days

Hi @Scaffman

I think the key issue is that most people assume that once ceasefire is agreed everything will quickly go back to normal. Lloyds list rules are that after ceasefire tankers have to remain in place for a minimum of 10 days. If a tanker has been at anchor for 3-4 months which most tankers will be when this ends they will be so fouled that the will not be able to make a 40 day journey. In addition there will be so many tankers in the same state that they will overwhelm all facilities within a reasonable steaming range. That means the oil on these tankers will not be going anywhere soon.

Further the only viable alternative oil is the USA if you check shipping traffic there is a massive line of tankers making the trip. But this adds 50 days steaming to a round trip. So these tankers will also not be available at the end of the war. We have a long way for this to go. I very much doubt this will be settled in May or even June. That makes Tullow's H1 numbers pretty spectacular.

Sorry that was countries who cannot pay for repairs Iraq

@Tornadotony

I think the issue is that we have a lot of short term speculators who jumped on. They saw the price of oil at $60 before the war and expect $60 afterwards. The reality is firstly after this war is over a lot of politicians who failed to set up strategic reserves (Australia) or those who went to war with their reserves depleted (USA) will be looking to stock up.

The pre war supply was estimated to be an excess of 3mbpd with substantial oil on water stocks of embargoed Iranian and Russian oil. The oil on water has now all gone. The shut in of production on wells will mean a lot of oil production will be lost. This will be countries that cannot pay for repairs (Iran) countries whose wells are such that shut in will result in a substantial loss of the wells (Iran) and countries that need western companies to restore production but are under sanction (Russia). By my calculation after this war we will lose that surplus.

This means a two year window for Tullow to generate substantial profits, restore cash balances, repair the negative balance sheet, reduce debt sufficiently to be able to refinance its bond positions at commercial and non penal rates, to book substantial commissions from residual cashflows on prior disposals, and finally to rerate the company from a debt recovery to a viable oil company.

Hi @xxnjr

I totally agree. However in my experience of negotiations in both USA and the Gulf states I see a difference in methodology. The US wants to end this with a win. They have elections coming up and Trump wants a deal. The Iranians on the other hand can only win if this dispute goes on long enough that oil prices cause a crisis and the USA voters reign trump in. To this end they will play for time, offer carrot then stick, and damage Gulf oil infrastructure on a systematic basis if directly attacked. They will attend every peace conference and play for time.

Hence they have laid low on this two week ceasefire and agreed free passage on Friday but shooting tankers on Saturday. They will turn up at the peace conference with hours to spare and push for another 2 weeks ceasefire for more discussions. Meanwhile the clock is ticking. As we go into May with the gulf still closed the squeeze will be on. The Iranian objective is to sweat this out as long as possible. The Russians have just been given another month of $114 oil. They will supply Iran with weapons supplies and targeting data. Over the weekend despite sanctions a lot of oil got out its all going to China. If China is short I am sure Russia will supply if only to keep Iran in the fight. Ask the Russians when they want this dispute to end it will be December....December 2036.

A 60-day stay in a warm water port significantly increases operational risks for a large oil tanker, causing severe marine growth (biofouling) that reduces fuel efficiency by up to 16% due to drag. The extended stay in warm climates raises the risks of engine overheating, high cargo vapor pressure, and accelerated corrosion of structural steel, particularly in older "shadow fleet" vessels.

Greenpeace

Greenpeace

+3

Operational and Technical Impacts:

Marine Growth & Hull Fouling: Warm water accelerates seaweed and barnacle growth, causing significant hull fouling. This increases drag, necessitating higher fuel consumption to maintain speeds.

Corrosion and Structural Degradation: High humidity and salinity accelerate the degradation of steel, particularly in aging tankers.

Cargo Management: Extended time in warm environments increases the risk of high vapor pressure in tanks, requiring careful monitoring to prevent excessive venting.

Engine & System Maintenance: Prolonged idling can lead to clogged sea chests (water inlets) due to marine growth, leading to engine cooling issues.

www.u-mas.co.uk

www.u-mas.co.uk

+4

Environmental and Security Risks:

Environmental Disaster Risk: Extended, stationary,, or abandoned tankers (often part of a "shadow fleet") pose a high risk of catastrophic oil spills.

Geopolitical/Cargo Security: Ships waiting this long, especially in conflict-prone areas like the Red Sea or Persian Gulf, are vulnerable to attacks or seizure, turning them into "ticking time bombs".

The Strategist | ASPI's analysis and commentary site

The Strategist | ASPI's analysis and commentary site

+4

Economic Consequences:

Increased Costs: Increased fuel consumption and the need for hull cleaning (underwater grooming) can severely impact operating costs.

Efficiency Penalties: Extended waiting periods can prevent vessels from meeting CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) environmental standards, impacting their operational rating.

Stuck Tanker Statistics (As of Early-to-Mid March 2026):

Total Stranded Tankers: Over 400 oil and gas tankers were stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Percentage of Global Fleet: Approximately 22% of the global tanker fleet (by deadweight tonnage - DWT) was stranded in the broader Middle East Gulf region.

Specific Vessel Stranding: Over 150 tankers were anchored outside the strait to avoid attacks, while around 800 total vessels (including cargo) were trapped inside the Gulf.

Congestion: Traffic fell to nearly zero at times, with only 15 ships per day allowed to pass, creating a massive backlog.

New York Post

New York Post

+3

Current Status (April 18-20, 2026):

"Double Blockade": The strait is essentially closed. Iran has reimposed a blockade in response to the US blockade, and both sides are actively restricting vessels.

Voluntary Suspensions: Major shipping firms have suspended operations, leading to over 300 oil tankers being stuck outside the Strait of Hormuz, with the line growing.

Facebook

Facebook

+4

Impact on Oil Transport:

Roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes through this chokepoint.

The restrictions have caused the largest disruption to the world energy supply since the 1970s, stopping about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow.

Hi @xxnjr

I quite realise that the cargo may not be going to Europe. My point is that the pricing of the cargo should be heavily influenced by its availability and proximity to viable markets. Trump is attempting to manipulate the oil markets by constantly announcing immanent settlement of the war at key times ie Friday trading. Hence the rising disconnect between the oil futures and oil spot. At the moment this is reflected in price as time goes on it will start to be a matter of actual physical availability. For example the last tanker of jet fuel that left the gulf before the war started arrived in the UK around 7th April i am not aware of any other tankers coming. So for these future months I see physical availability and proximity heavily influencing prices.

As to the East West pipeline I am aware of the 4.5 MBPD export capacity on the port. The balance I am supposing is refined and consumed locally. My focus is that should the Red Sea be closed to traffic the impact will be reduced flows in the pipeline and more Saudi Capacity being shut in. As Saudi production has now been reduced to the flow through that pipe. Iran knows this and has already damaged the pipe. Iran only had 13-14 days storage its ports hae been embargoed now for nearly a week. The last time Iran had a shut in it lost 1/3 of well production when it reopened. My guess is before this happened the Iranians will attack the East West pipeline.

A few other points to consider

1. With the Russians being allowed to sell oil at $114 a barrel (Urals price this morning) Ukraine has decided to apply its own sanctions. It is systematically destroying ports and refineries. So much so that Russia is rapidly filling storage and is facing shut in of production. Due to sanctions they may not be able to reopen their wells without western oil company assistance and if it goes into the winter then the well itself will be lost.

2. Iran has about 14 days of storage with tankers may be more before they face shut in

3. Saudi has shut in 3 MBPD they have 7 MBPD working due to the East West pipeline. If this goes on the Houties will close the Red Sea and this 7mbpd face shut in

4. 20% of the worlds tankers have been at anchor for 52+ days. At 60 days they will need their bottoms cleaning. That's 20% of the world's tanker all need maintenance at the same time the facilities do not exits its 14 days drydock. Given the nature of this war it could easily last another 30-60 days so some ships if they had entered the gulf in early February could have 150 days of build up. That means these ships cannot do a 40 day trip the only place they will be dry dock and the queue for the dry dock will be longer than the one to get out of the strait.

5. The majority of the rest of the fleet will be steaming to the USA just like the Suez crisis the longer trip means you need more tankers to maintain a constant supply. When or if this war ends the tankers will be in the wrong place up to 50 days steaming away. Tullow's field is 12 days from Europe.

I don’t think Oil Price general is the issue. I am thinking Tullow has now 3 more loads for its H1 2026 results. What will the prices be

Load 1 Around April 30th/ 1st May 2026 Due to the fact it will be available oil and within 12 days steaming of Europe I price this as $150 a barrel.

Load 2 Around May 30th/ 1st June 2026. What many people have not realised is that 20% of the world’s tanker fleet have been at anchor now in a warm water anchorage for over 52 days. Once this number goes over 60 the tankers will not be in a fit state for a 40 average trip. The build up of marine growth on the tanker bottoms means that they either burn 40% more fuel and go a lot slower or immediately go into dry dock for a 14 day maintenance routine. Either way a clean tanker full of fuel within 12 days of Europe delivery 12th June I think will get at least $150-200 this is regardless of what happens this week.

Load 3 Tricky every three months Ghana gets the second load so Tullows Load 3 will be late July either war will be over or a land campaign will be in play this could either be $100 or $250. Even though the future price will have dropped I still think there will be a massive demand for an available cargo so close to Europe.

The key issues is that the Ugandan money plus extra money from not having to shut down for maintenance is trading income. This will boost post tax profits and reserves. Currently Tullow has negative reserves which always puts off investors. This year Tullow has everything going for it. High oil price, oil field lease extensions, IFRS16 lease moving into late stages, and commissions from old disposal deals starting to kick in.

Oil futures are creeping back up and dated Brent is still $117.69 no tankers have crossed the Strait today tomorrow is war day 50. I see this smouldering on for months maybe even years.

A good set of results 10-20p EPS and a few hundred million of debt cleared and this share will rerate. Its not just an oil play its a USD play. Gold and Silver have increased in price violently where they go oil will follow. The massive fiscal deficits that they USA are carrying can only lead to them printing USD. That $1.7bn in debt will be collapsing in value.

@xxnjr

According to my calculations Ghana got over $100m on their last cargo. You might have thought they would chip a little back to help Tullow. What is certain is that with the high oil prices they will be desperate to bring on that new gas processing plant its greenlighted for 2027. Is there anything in the agreement if Ghana defaults or pays late they have to provide interest on the debt??

Many thanks @xxnjr

It all adds up Tullow has also benefited this year by not having to close for maintenance (bi Annual) thats another 500k barrels or $50,000,000. Fifty million here another $50m from Uganda it all adds up. That's an extra 5.5 cents a share post tax. As tescos says every little helps.

@xxnjr

So we are saying on the Uganda deal

If Brent Average price > $75 Tullow gets 2.5% net of tax on 33% of 230,000 barrels per day

That's 230,000 X 33% x 2.5% X 365 x $85 that's $58,869,938 pa at $85 average Brent oil or about $5m a month kicking in late 2026??

The share price has reacted to speculators dumping their position. OK the Brent June Future dropped 10% on the news of the Strait being opened but Tullow does not sell oil on Brent June Futures. Tullow sells on Platt Spot Brent and what has Platt Spot Brent moved 1.6%. Yes its currently $117 and rising.

Iran has said the Strait is open until the end of the current ceasefire. That's next Wednesday. However Lloyds list rules states that a ship cannot move until a minimum of 10 days after ceasefire. On top of that Iran has said the Strait is a live minefield and they have forgotten where the mines are. We are still waiting on Mine Sweepers. All of the Gulf's oil production is shut in with the exception of Iran and Saudi. Saudi has shut in 4mbpd of production leaving 7 mbpd of production that they can export via the East West Pipeline.

Iran has said if the embargo on its ports is not lifted they will close the Red Sea and Saudi will have to shut in. Meanwhile Iran has only 13 days of production storage we are on embargo day 3 so Iran is shut in within 10 days. On top of that Ukraine is systematically destroying Russian oil infrastructure. The Port of Ust Luga was destroyed taking out 40% of Russia's exports, their refineries are being systematically hit and Russia faces shutting in to. Last time this happened Russia needed western expertise to reopen the wells. Very little oil will be leaving the Gulf by next Wednesday. Expect an extension of peace talks for another 2 weeks.

Tullow actually makes more money in this scenario. The oil prices have dropped so its hedges calculated on a daily basis cost less money. The next Tullow cargo will be around 30th April by which time Europe will be desperate for oil and Ghana is only 12 days away expect $150 Platts Spot Brent. This conflict will be boiling along for months if not years elevating oil prices and every month Tullow will be liquidating debt. The asset sales Tullow has completed left back door commissions in the case of elevated oil prices which will shortly kick in with extra cash.

The company's interest charges will fall as one drilling support barge liquidates its IFRS16 lease and the other lease passes into its later stages where the notional interest and depreciation will be lower than the physical lease costs.

Tullow's depreciation charges will be slashed. The oil field calculations this year will be boosted by leases that are 4 years longer than last year. The oil prices in these calculations will be at least $20 a barrel higher. Next year the new gas processing plant will be completed and TEN will have a gas sales agreement in place which together with higher oil prices will move the valuation from a negative to a positive number.

Then there is the tax. The high depreciation charges high notional IFRS16 accelerated interest and non eligible hedging costs has meant that tax charges on the Jubilee and TEN field have been an exceptionally high proportion of pre tax profit. Tha

@xxnjr

I am sorry I meant Uganda

Re Uganda can you please supply me the basis of income

Oil field barrels per day

What percentage Tullow gets

Trigger price (is that Platts Spot Brent)

When the income starts

i can see a mention of residual income from Kenya too do you have similar data for that source too ??

Hi @xxnjr

Can you please give me the basis of the Kenyan residual commission payments

ie Start and End date

number of barrels

Commission trigger

& basis of commission

That will mean that Tullow will have the late April cargo just as the market realises that the oil has run out. I predict at least $150-200 a barrel