Member Info for xxnjr

There are 5 supply vessels in the area which is quite high. 2 of them are where they would need to be to stabilize a tanker during offload. Will update if anything happens.

Tonyb33 - 4/Jul is the date I had also pencilled in. So far I'd say we are kind of 70K or very low 70's. 4/jul on my methodology would point to more like 80K. The actual tanker "Homeric" is in the vicinity already - it's just a question of when loading actually starts. Haven't been following things too closely but from visual memory looks like the rig moved back onto the "next well on-line" completed that and then went back to the pre-drilled "next next well on line" which is probably being completed right now. Completion typically takes about 25 days for 2 zones or a bit longer if 3 zones. Was away so don't have exact timings for those rig movements. Those comments about 85K from a minister (or whoever) were interesting but lets see what the loadings suggest.

The price is the average of 5 individual days of "platts dated brent" centred on the shipping date. (2 days b4/the shipping date/2days following). Further adjusted for the things you mention which are somewhat opaque to ordinary mortals.

Isn't the weak OP due to a potential over-supplied oil market in 2027? Having said that the high level of shorts currently suggests an OP rebound may occur. How far that runs - who knows?

One poster on here is desperate for attention and recognition perhaps suggesting reality is somewhat different to the way they portray things?

But it's an empty echo. All part of an unrelenting "psyop" perhaps driven by inadaquacey or failure?

H2Nick

"£19K not much for CFO to buy when CEO gets given £500K worth"

but in the same RNS (15/6) the CFO was "given" 3,125,000 Nil paid shares.

H2Nick

"£19K not much for CFO to buy when CEO gets given £500K worth"

but in the same RNS (15/6) the CFO was "given" 3,125,000 Nil paid shares.

(that response was from Gemini)

Any theories as to why hormuz closure didn't result in $150 oil. China destocking? IEA releases? floating oil? demand destruction? that sort of thing. and where will brent be for rest of 2026/7?

The Strait of Hormuz closure (which began late February 2026) peaked Brent oil prices around $120–$144 a barrel instead of the predicted $150–$200 range because a massive pre-existing supply cushion, sharp Chinese demand deceleration, and alternative route re-directions insulated the market before a preliminary U.S.–Iran peace deal on 15 June 2026 caused prices to plunge to ~$82.

Why Oil Didn't Hit $150 During the Closure

1. Pre-existing Market Oversupply and Cushioned DeficitsThe global market was heavily oversupplied entering 2026. Goldman Sachs noted that while the disruption knocked out up to 14 million barrels per day (mb/d) of gross capacity, the actual second-quarter global deficit was limited to only 5 to 6 mb/d. Severe disruptions were mitigated because massive volumes of floating storage and onshore buffers were actively drawn down while ships already en route to the West continued to deliver.

2. Accelerating Demand Destruction in ChinaChina did not just destock; its structural demand baseline actively cratered. Goldman Sachs reported that Chinese gasoline and product consumption plummeted by up to 20% year-on-year in April 2026. This was driven by:Domestic economic slowdowns.An aggressive, permanent structural acceleration toward Electric Vehicles (EVs) and high-speed rail.Data from Sinopec showing immediate domestic fuel sale declines under high pricing.

3. Strategic Redirections & Spare CapacityMajor Gulf producers (such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE) immediately bypassed the strait where possible, diverting a portion of their crude via pipelines to the Red Sea or Oman. Furthermore, non-OPEC+ supply from the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Venezuela surged simultaneously, absorbing a massive chunk of global market anxiety.

4. The Counter-Intuitive IEA SignalThe International Energy Agency (IEA) enacted emergency reserve releases, but analysts noted that the initial release of 400 million barrels actually signaled panic to the market, meaning the primary dampener was real-world demand destruction rather than emergency oil trickling into the physical system.Brent Crude Price Forecast (Rest of 2026 – 2027)

Following the 15 June 2026 U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding to lift the naval blockade and reopen the Strait, major investment banks immediately slashed their price decks as geopolitical risk premiums collapsed.

Institutions: Q3 2026Forecast/Q4 2026Forecast/Full-Year 2027 Average

Goldman Sachs: Normalising/$80/$75

Citi: $75 /$70 /$65

J.P. Morgan: High-bound normalising/$96 (pre-peace deck average)/$75

Hi tonyb33

"What's also interesting about these projections is what it tells us about the impact of the new wells. At the start of 2026 the Jubilee was producing a cargo around every 14 days. As the new wells have kicked in its dropped to 13 and with the new June & July wells the cargo has to drop to 12 days to hit 13 cargos. As such the H1 numbers will no reflect the true story as the H1 numbers will only have 5 Jubilee Cargos two of which will be pre war price, but will be subject to six months hedging costs. The H2 numbers will have 8 cargos and will be post war price but with only 6 months hedging costs. Equally the H1 numbers will only have 1 TEN cargo the H2 a further 2 plus a stock adjustment for another 0.5."

I'm not really seeing that. The last well seems to have made little or no difference to gross field output as far as I can see. Sometimes the interval is 13, sometimes 14..... so it averages out to 13.5 where it has been for a while. One can only hope the new well about to come on is more impactful :)

Is your model on cargo guidance as per the company correct?...... Wasn't

FY Guidance 10J + 2.5 TEN Cargos (11J + 3.0 TEN in an upside case).

i.e Top of guidance range is only 14 cargos from Ghana (not 16 in your 'per company' model)?

Ken17 - Debt is generally repaid from free cash flow. As a rough approximation the debt reduction over 2026 should be kind of similar to whatever lump sum of free cash flow is generated over FY26. But it could be slightly different here with the 6 monthly cash sweeps?

Hi tonyb33

"What's also interesting about these projections is what it tells us about the impact of the new wells. At the start of 2026 the Jubilee was producing a cargo around every 14 days. As the new wells have kicked in its dropped to 13 and with the new June & July wells the cargo has to drop to 12 days to hit 13 cargos. As such the H1 numbers will no reflect the true story as the H1 numbers will only have 5 Jubilee Cargos two of which will be pre war price, but will be subject to six months hedging costs. The H2 numbers will have 8 cargos and will be post war price but with only 6 months hedging costs. Equally the H1 numbers will only have 1 TEN cargo the H2 a further 2 plus a stock adjustment for another 0.5."

I'm not really seeing that. The last well seems to have made little or no difference to gross field output as far as I can see. Sometimes the interval is 13, sometimes 14..... so it averages out to 13.5 where it has been for a while. One can only hope the new well about to come on is more impactful :)

Is your model on cargo guidance as per the company correct?...... Wasn't

FY Guidance 10J + 2.5 TEN Cargos (11J + 3.0 TEN in an upside case).

i.e Top of guidance range is only 14 cargos from Ghana (not 16 in your 'per company' model)?

Weren't the CPS (allegedly) about to issue proceedings some months ago? I guess there was no case to answer?

Weren't the CPS (allegedly) about to issue proceedings some months ago? I guess there was no case to answer?

The second Ghana gas plant (GPP II) will take 2 yrs to construct and commission. Even if it was under construction now (which it is not) first gas is unlikely before Mid-2028. They have yet to sign an EPC contract (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) as I understand it.

Cos they don't wan't to dilute their existing massive free share awards that ironically dilute existing shareholders!

I'm in showery and windy Cornwall for the week. Got the TLW email this am. The lack of detail in it and the AGM Pres (1 slide only) just now on my phone suggests to me there's a lack of confidence amongst management that TLW will survive without meaningful shareholder losses whenever the next refinancing, or whatever happens next - happens.

Today's RNS proves you cannot predict who gets which cargo.

No worries! Anton.