Member Info for xxnjr

Where?.......It helps if you can read!

Not crap. It's better than "policy" which is as a general guide to hedge 60%/40% unhedged.

More than 40% is unhedged.

"At 31 December 2025, the Group's hedge portfolio provides downside protection for c.50% of forecast production entitlements in the first half of 2026 with c.$58/bbl weighted average floors across all structures; while retaining strategic upside participation across for the same period, with only c.30% of forecast production entitlements capped with collars at a weighted average sold call of c.$74/bbl, and c.7% of forecast production entitlements secured with three-way collars with $70-$80/bbl call spreads. To date, the Group's hedge portfolio in the second half of the year is comprised of collars providing downside protection for c.20% of forecast production entitlements with c.$59/bbl weighted average floors, and upside capped at c.$75/bbl."

The hedging doesn't seem that bad at all (unless I missed something).

As more than 'the policy 40%' is unhedged

JMAX - For 2026 (the only thing that matters now) it reads

"Pre-financing cash flow guidance has increased to c.$260-365 million at $70-100/bbl, primarily due to year to date production performance being above expectations, higher oil price realisations and the higher oil price assumption used for guidance.

· Free cash flow guidance of $70-175 million at $70-100/bbl.

· Cash flow would increase by c.$40 million from $70/bbl to $80/bbl and then by a further c.$30 million for every additional $10/bbl increase, non-linear due to hedges in place."

So looks like they will make at least $100m FCF in 2026

JMAX it does say for 2026-1H

"1H26 hedge portfolio at 31 December 2025

Straight puts: 3,750 $58.20

Collars: 10,200 $58.48 - $75.17

Three-way collars (call spread): 2,224 $57.99 $69.90 $79.90

JMAX it does say

"Free cash flow guidance of $70-175 million at $70-100/bbl.

Cash flow would increase by c.$40 million from $70/bbl to $80/bbl and then by a further c.$30 million for every additional $10/bbl increase, non-linear due to hedges in place."

"Free cash flow guidance includes recovery of 2025 cash call receivables and c.$40 million gas revenues related to 2026 gas production, but excludes c.$110 million historical gas receivables and the c.$50 million receivable related to TEN development debt. Following execution of the Master Gas Agreement, Tullow has a payment security mechanism for gas. Tullow is working closely with the Government of Ghana and its agencies to resolve the historic receivables on a mutually acceptable basis."

Apart from JMAX, Myself, Flavius, Anton, Stanley Pro, Tony @ AI, JBond, Loon1962, Few$$$more and a few others

None of you seem to know much if anything about Tullow. Do some research and write something about Tullow rather than cluttering the board up with your take on the world.

(e.g. mention it on tomorrow's webcast) left that bit out!

Sent TLW IR an email suggesting if new cargo is Tullow (and I now agree it probably is) then could they give an indication of whatever PDB OP is likely to be realised given the current market dynamics.

Decent Results. Galp delivered a solid start to 2026, with first-quarter earnings in line with analyst expectations as a sharp rise in Brazilian production and stronger oil prices offset market volatility and weaker conditions in renewables. The Portuguese oil major reported net income of €272 million ($319 million) for the first quarter, just shy of analyst forecasts consensus of €276 million, while group adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) surged 41% year on year to €943 million. Performance was underpinned Galp’s upstream portfolio, which continued to carry group results amid a volatile macroeconomic backdrop marked by the Middle East war. Upstream production increased 23% year on year to 129,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting a lower impact from planned maintenance, strong output from mature Brazilian assets and the continued ramp-up of the Bacalhau floating production, storage and offloading vessel. The upstream division delivered a 78% increase in adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. Higher realised oil prices also supported results, with Galp benefiting from March’s rally in crude markets, when Brent averaged about $81 per barrel during the quarter. The company’s co chief executives, Maria Joao Carioca and Joao Marques da Silva said operational execution remained strong despite the period’s heightened price volatility. Downstream earnings were more mixed. Industrial and midstream EBITDA slipped 9% year on year as severe weather in Portugal disrupted refinery operations early in the quarter."

I can attest to the s*i*e weather in Portugal - It rained almost everyday day when I was there in February!

Stock definitely one for arainy day :)

Far better to wait for results to see what the actual hedging ratios are. Don't be taken in by those claiming to know what current hedging might be.

Tonyb33 - ref your recent comment

"Hi @xxnjr

Many thanks for your input. I have now altered the models in line with your input. On the basis of

Barrels/day Floor Cap Call

Floor 9,500.00 57.00

Floor/Cap 3,000.00 57.17 75.67

3 Way 174.00 57.85 76.30 86.30

12,674.00"

Did I write the above? I'm thinking not! But either way kindly do not drag me in your hedging operation. For all you know 50% of the "book" maybe in collars which would result in a hedging loss of $20m on one cargo?

It's all very well saying

"I will update the model when I get the actual data on Tuesday."as, if there is any hedging damage in the results the damage will already be in the Share Price!

Xxnjr

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,170

RE: Oil prices general22 Apr 2026 16:47

Hi Tonyb33

"If you look at the 2025 hedging the absolute collars were only 5% of the book that's where serious money could be lost for the H1 2025 there were only 2,000 BPD"

If you look at 25-1H:- Puts 9,500, Collars 2,000, 3 Ways 16,500. So you are not far out as collars are 7%

However 25-2H:- Puts 4,500, Collars 7,000, 3 Ways 12,500. Meaning collars are 29% of the book. Not 5%

If you factor in 29% collars for 1H-26 then your hedge loss calculations are way out.

The point is, as we have mentioned before, the ratio between collars and 3 ways changes according to how Tullow perceive the market when they placed the hedges which in the main is usually 6 to 9 months ahead. Talk of an impending future "structural overhang" in the oil market probably meant Tullow were more concerned with protecting the downside as the year progressed rather than having access to the upside which may account for the reduction in 3 ways over 25-2H.

For all we know 3 ways could only be 5% of the hedge book as per the most recent disclosure for 1H-2026 hedging in last yrs half year results.

Xxnjr

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,168

RE: Oil prices general20 Apr 2026 14:28

But just to be clear (Tony) we should anticipate roughly 60% of 2026 1H production guidance has been hedged leaving 40% unhedged as that is basically Rule No 1 of the hedging policy. What we don't know is how much of that hedged 60% is collars and how much is 3 ways giving access to pricing upside.

17/4 for tony

"It's 28% after Ug.gov exercised back in rights."

17/4 xx for tony

"Would suggest less than 16,500 is in 3 ways for 2026. Also refer to 2025 Half Year Report which shows collars are now at C.$59 to c.$76 from memory. Not the numbers you are using. As to the 3rd part of the puzzle how much is in 3 ways and the bought call $ number. Nobody knows."

Xx 16/4 to tony

"Would suggest less than 16,500 is in 3 ways for 2026. Also refer to 2025 Half Year Report which shows collars are now at C.$59 to c.$76 from memory. Not the numbers you are using. As to the 3rd part of the puzzle how much is in 3 ways and the bought call $ number. Nobody knows."

Xxnjr

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,164

RE: First Quarter Gross Sales16 Apr 2026 17:05

Tonyb33 - what makes you think the 3 way collar volume is 16,500 bopd?

Xxnjr

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,164

RE: KOS load leaving today16 Apr 2026 10:25

Tonyb33 - I've just skimmed through your many AI's. Suggest you use the following inputs

TLW bblls per cargo 892,707

Unhedged 40%

Hedged 60% ($59 to $76)

25% of "Hedged" sold calls at $86.30

How much is a cargo worth at say $120 PDB?