Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Antonvb,
Are you sure about that (the 42.5%)?
Admittedly I haven't read much about Kenya for the last 3 yrs+ but isn't the situation that gov.ken hold as yet unexercised back in rights of c.20%. These will only be exercised, should gov.ken choose to do so, after an FID has taken place. Kenya have now appointed an outside consultant to evaluate a potential field development to inform as to whether exercising those back in rights would make sense.
i.e if exercised Kenya will only be taking c20%, not 42.5% as you suggest.
That's E&P for your! In order to drill a well, any driller has to have a positive view of the outcome of that well, otherwise the well would never be drilled. The problem is that drilling wells isn't full proof. It's all based on someone(s) idea of what a few squiggly lines of seismic may represent. The squiggly lines themselves were the result of someone else(s) efforts to convert sound reflections into squiggly lines. And this is then viewed in the context of someone else(s) basin modelling of what they think may have happened between 10 million and 150 million years ago. It's not for widows and orphans.
JP2000 I have a copy of the CPO-5 PSC which is available on this link.
hTTp://www.anh.gov.co/Asignacion-de-areas/CONTRATOS%20FIRMADOS%20EP%20y%20TEAS/CONTRATOS%20EyP%20TEAS%20%20%202008/CTO%20EyP%20CPO%205%20%202008.pdf
If LSE delete my link, then do a google search of
y por la otra parte, ONGC VIOESH LTO. SUCURSAL COLOMBIANA, sucursal de sociedad extranjera debidamente constituida de acuerdo con las leyes de la República de Nueva Delhi, India con domicilio principal en Bogotá OC., según la escritura pública No. 0075 del 16 de enero de 2008, otorgada en la Notaría dieciséis (16) del Círculo de Bogotá, D.C., representada por BATHALA OASARATHA NAIOU, mayor de edad, ciudadano Indio, identificado con pasaporte No. P.POOOF9645921 de India, quien manifiesta:
This should bring up the PSC. Having downloaded that into PDF format, save document.
Then search that PDF saved file for =
(just the = will suffice)
this will take you to the formulas governing profit sharing at various OP
Failing that message me on ADVFN, or LSE (if thats possible) and I'll e-mail you the PSC.
Fair comment JTD. Apologies if my comments came over as condescending. I'm optimistic things will change - simply because of OXY. If things don't change, we won't be able to keep up. I suppose the question is; Are AMER serious about progressing their OXY assets? If not, then a takeover proposal may arrive, with the unrealised high impact upside passing to the acquirer at near to zero cost. My 3 to 5 years timeframe is just for that high impact heavy oil play in Teracay and Tecacho blocks. In the meantime AMER can drill Put 8 with OXY, AMER can drill Put 9 with OXY. Put 9 already has a discovery. Airu-1 tested c450 bopd of 28API oil from the K_villeta. AMER can drill Mecaya with OXY. Mecaya already has a discovery, Mecaya-1 having tested c750 bopd of 27 API oil from the 'U' Sands. AMER were intending to put this well on LTT, although that was b4 OXY deal. Plenty of stuff going on in short to medium term, with high impact stuff to follow.
Agreed LS3 is low hanging fruit, with superior flow rates and economics. But what's the size of the prize? That's not clear yet. Is it material, or just a very local play with less ultimate resource upside than hoped for in heavy oil, even though the latter has so far been disappointing. IIRC ONGC/AMER said they are planning to start drilling Geopak LLA 34 type plays next year.
sorry, that link was removed!
....."Initial analysis of the Loto-2 well indicates there may be an issue with the mobility of the oil in place, coupled with the usual strong Llanos aquifer, and together with our partner ONGC Videsh we intend to further study the detailed test results with the objective of defining whether this accumulation can produce economically through the use of advanced techniques. As part of these studies, the partners are considering a further test of well Loto-1. The presence of heavy oil in the Llanos basin is wide spread, given the diversity of sourcing and migration mechanisms, which are the basis of the basin's prodigious potential. The block is on trend with a number of important Llanos light and medium oil discoveries and we remain convinced of the high potential within the structures already identified and the wider exploration opportunities held within the contract. It is very encouraging that we have been able to develop the drilling operations in such an efficient and cost effective way. This benefit will enable comprehensive exploration within CPO-5 at very reasonable cost."
Once they run out of road on the LS3, you never know, ONGC mey re-visit Loto-1, or the play.
Subsequently they drilled Loto-2, and said they may re-visit Loto-1
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/amerisur_resources/news/rns/story/wv049zr
{Part II} ".....After casing the well, subsequent analysis indicated that there was poor cement bond between the casing and the formation which, after evaluation, led the Company to understand that this resulted in non- representative, high water cut test results from each of the three intervals tested in the Mirador formation, with water easily migrating up from other layers into the perforated intervals. Despite this poor hydraulic isolation of the well, a co-mingled test of the three perforated intervals in the Mirador formation was performed with an electro-submersible pump which not only confirmed the Mirador formation's high fluid deliverability but also achieved an oil rate of approximately 1,500 bopd of 17° API oil with a water cut of approximately 80%. In June of 2013, the Company had a technical review performed on the two exploration wells drilled, Loto-1X and Kamal-1X, which substantiated initial assessments that poor cement bond causing a lack of vertical hydraulic isolation between the casing and the formation rock was the root cause of the high water cut tests of the Mirador zone in both wells.
In Q2 2014, the operating partner of the block completed a remediation workover on the primary cement job of the Loto-1X well with the objective of achieving zonal isolation and lowering the water cut, thus improving well economics. This was followed by a re-test of the Lower and Middle Mirador sands as well as the testing of a new sand at the top of the Mirador formation. The newly tested Top Mirador sands produced 22° API oil over a four day test period, including an average pump-restricted rate of 453 bopd over the last 42 hours of the test with declining water cut that did not stabilize, dropping to 50%."
If I can only find it, I recall Loto-1 results were affected by a poor cement job. Oh, here we go .....
Part I "The first of two exploration wells, Kamal-1X, was spudded on October 29, 2012, and reached a total measured depth (“MD”) of 10,500 feet in December 2012. Of the multiple sands targeted, the primary target of the Mirador zone encountered a net pay of 20 feet. This zone was tested and yielded a peak rate of 210 bopd of 14? API with high water cut. This test confirmed oil production and mobility and a notice of discovery was filed with the ANH by the operator. However, rates were deemed non-commercial and the operator was directed to abandon the well by the ANH, which was done in mid-February 2014. A 3D seismic program is planned over the Kamal area to enhance clarity and will be used to re-evaluate the Kamal structure.
The second exploration well, Loto-1X, spudded on January 22, 2013, and was drilled to a total depth of 10,500 feet MD. This well targeted the Mirador, Guadalupe and Une sands. Petrophysical evaluation, supported by conventional cores and cuttings descriptions, indicated that the Une, Guadalupe and Mirador reservoir sands were all oil charged, with the Mirador being of the most interest with a petrophysical evaluation showing a high quality net pay of over approximately 65 feet. The testing of the Une zone resulted in extra heavy oil in non-commercial quantities and further testing was abandoned.....
{see part II}