Member Info for xxnjr

No worries! Anton.

Anton - that tanker is loading from ENI's FPSO.

Art Berman?...... that would be the guy who predicted US Shale Oil production was about to crash and burn when production was about 4 or 5 million barrels a day? Production now >13 million barrels a day. Needless to say I don't follow him and won't do so now. OTOH there was an interesting 20min Bloomberg interview with Chevron's CEO the other day and his opinion was that even if the straits opened today the price of oil would have to rise over the summer months just to curb demand. Good enough for me.

the negotiations are through an intermediary (****stan).not direct at this stage.

I asked AI and they said "No, Millennium Management is not known for "ramping" shares on retail bulletin boards to short them." so was clearly asking the wrong Q there!

Not that I would expect MC to do that! Just asking the Q. What do others think?

Looks like a preliminary deal for a prolonged ceasefire and reopening straits is imminent. The nuclear issue kicked into the long grass. If so - Millenium Capital's shorting doesn't look so dumb. The thing is..... have Millenium Capital been ramping this share for the dump? Time will tell.....

I've sold all my Tullow earlier today as the other companies I'm invested in like APA, GALP, M&P, Seplat are completely unhedged to the upside, have production growth and/or significant exploration upside. If oil is $90 they make loads of cash. If oil is $65 they still make loads of cash. 3 of them return a min of 60% FCF to shareholders. It was fun here recently. GLA!

Hi tonyb33 - Thx for the explanation which has a certain logic. The only thing is that if the straits were to somehow miraculously be re-opened in the 6 or 7 wks before 3rd of July then the price of Dated Brent itself would probably drop from the elevated levels you are anticipating. Not saying that is going to happen as Iran's powers that be are willing to endure a lot of pain. And the longer this goes on the more critical oil supply becomes. I'm just content oil will be probably be in the 90's for a while!

Hi tonyb33 - it's always good to have someone super-engaged and uber-bullish :) But I just do not understand the mental gymnastics employed in the argument below that has been trotted out a few times recently.....

"3. We also know that it is physically impossible to get less than $130 a load for these two cargoes because there are only 12 days to Europe from Ghana but 40+ days from the gulf to Europe (even more really because of the bottom fouling from waiting in a warm water port for 3 months) So the June Tullow cargo leaving on 03/07/26 could get to Europe faster than a Gulf cargo leaving today as such that June cargo is going to get a very high price."

Even if cargos went to Europe the logic employed above doesn't really make much sense given how cargos are priced. But since 75% of cargos go to China and very few if any go to Europe it hardly seems relevant. As for "bottom fouling" that's really scrapping the bottom of the barrel! :) None of the tankers that visit Jubilee have been laid up in the Persian Gulf recently.

Diffs have collapsed. Not "manipulation" just supply and demand as refiners are holding off buying..... but diffs maybe about to explode!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Physical-Crude-Premiums-Collapse-Despite-the-Hormuz-Crisis.html

Tonyb33 - at the mo we are still on an average 13.5 day interval. If it gets to 12 will let you know.

Scaffman - the 2025 data was missing at time of writing, will update as and when.

What may be happening? Just guessing. Jubilee was a car crash under Rahul. He got the sack. Lot's of producing wells were coughing up gas so the overall GOR number for the field rose steeply, maybe as Rahul was drilling all over the place. After he left there was probably a reset and they decided to drill in known high net pay areas of the central part of main field rather than the south east of main field and Jubilee South East (which is a separate accumulation). The first 2 of those new wells added about a combined 20K and seemed to have produced at a stable rate. New wells must have a much lower GOR than rest of the existing wells. So you have 20K low GOR + 50K high GOR and your field average goes down. In addition voidage replacement rose from about 100% to 140% over 1Q/26 as they consistently injected higher water volumes which if maintained should increase pressure within the reservoir which also lowers the GOR.

Tonyb33

yes tanker left the vicinity at 7:30am this morning. But it actually decoupled last night. My dates (for consistency and to gauge production) are hook-up date + 1 day (equals 12th May) since it takes 27 to 33hrs pumping to load a cargo.

Always put in a deliberate mistake to see if you guys are awake!

Jan 2026 250,000,000/2672 = 93562 bopd...... should read Jan 2025

Oct 2026 250,000,000/3733 = 66970 bopd....... should read Oct 2025

Petrocom has updated 2026 data through March though the FY2025 figures have temporarily disappeared from the site. While production numbers are as expected, the standout news is the significant drop in Gas-Oil Ratio (GOR) on Jubilee. As a reminder, GOR is the amount of associated gas (in scf) produced per barrel of oil. Throughout 2025, GOR was rising steeply; this meant we were approaching gas handling limits even as oil volumes declined. The FPSO has a gas processing ceiling of 250 mmscf/d. By dividing that ceiling by the GOR, you find the max oil cap of the FPSO.

So the monthly GOR numbers starting Jan 2025 were

(Jan) 2672, 2689, 2807, 3220, 3390, 3591, 3768, 3693, 3766, 3733 (Oct)

Therefore the max oil production before hitting gas processing ceiling is

Jan 2026 250,000,000/2672 = 93562 bopd

Oct 2026 250,000,000/3733 = 66970 bopd

Now we have for 2026 much lower GOR

(Jan) 2917, (Feb)2428, (Mar)2273

Mar 2026 250,000,000/2273 = 109,986 bopd

To be clear, this doesn’t mean the field will suddenly hit 110k bopd as we don't currently have the well capacity for that. However, it opens the door for higher volumes. If the upcoming wells perform, we should realistically be able to target 80k bopd without being choked back by gas limits. It is interesting that production hasn't really increased since the last well came online in late March. Having been a BG shareholder before the Shell merger I know Mr Perks comes from a high-calibre background as he was heading up a succession of their major growth gas projects. Unless the latest well was a dud, I suspect Tullow are now managing the reservoir more conservatively. By throttling production while maintaining water injection rates, the Voidage Replacement Ratio (VRR) improves. This helps re-pressurise the reservoir, which is the right move for the long-term health of the field. Overall this GOR reduction is a very encouraging early sign for Jubilee’s potential longevity.

Cautionary note.

Nearest I've ever been to an oil field is filling up at Shell as well as riding my mountain bike through Wytch Farm which is an actual oil field although I'm not supposed to be there :)

Yep tonyb33 - SACS (semi-annual cash sweeps) on 15/Nov 2026 and 15/May 2027 and semi-annually thereafter until redemption was my read of it.

At times it does feel like a "pump & dump" operation is underway or has been executed. Time will tell I guess!

It's small beer. Only $7bn of "informed" bets were placed between 2 mins and 15 mins before major information dramatically moved the market up/down. It's just "friends" making a lot of money. (apparently)

Ripley94 - Thx mate! But could you kindly do the pricing updates for Brent rather than WTI as you might induce a medical condition in anyone not aware of the differences between the two, or how TLW cargos are priced.