Member Info for xxnjr

TLW's cargoes generally go to China.

reuters has said a ****stani source involved in us-iran peace efforts has confirmed the axios report.“we will close this very soon. we are getting close,” the source said, according to the news agency.

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us and iran nearing one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war - axios

the us believes it is getting close to an agreement with iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to the american news website axious, citing two us officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.

axios also reported that both sides have set a framework for more detailed negotiations on iran’s nuclear programme, a key issue at the heart of deadlocked talks between washington and tehran.

the us reportedly expects iran to respond to several key points in the next 48 hours, and while nothing has yet been agreed, the sources told axios this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

among other provisions, the deal would involve iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the us agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the strait of hormuz, axios reported

Anyone have any views on the M&A backstop?.....

Mentioned it the other day but the most interesting aspect of the refinancing is the M&A backstop.

"This maturity will spring to May 18, 2028, if Tullow has not signed a legally binding sale and purchase agreement by Sept. 30, 2027"

Yes that does appear to mean Tullow is effectively up for sale with the sales documents, CPR or whatever required to be drawn up as part of that sales process due to be published 9 months prior to 30/9/2027.

But it seems nobody wants to talk about the M&A backstop on here!

Far be it for me to steal JMAX's thunder but JMAX would probably write something like

"You don't want to discuss JMAX but start a new thread "JMAX"..... utter Fool!"

Dan77,

This is JMAX's playground. (He?) is part of the furniture. JMAX is the most committed poster here. Pretty much 24/7/365 on and off. The mood, the tone or whatever are really set by JMAX. It's a free world. JMAX posts. Some of us respond. Some of us filter. Then un-filter. JMAX points that out. Around it goes.

Dan77,

This is JMAX's playground. (He?) is part of the furniture. JMAX is the most committed poster here. Pretty much 24/7/365 on and off. The mood, the tone or whatever are really set by JMAX. It's a free world. JMAX posts. Some of us respond. Some of us filter. Then un-filter. JMAX points that out. Around it goes.

Hi Hussain1,

It's a good question. For what it's worth have no idea where the SP will end up (high or low). I leave that to others. Whether or not you should believe them is your judgement call. But to answer your Q the chances of new finds that are material are probably quite low. Why? Well if you look at the WCTP license it has basically been shrunk (through relinquishment) to the area immediately surrounding the eastern half of the Jubilee field. The other licence DWT which the Jubilee field straddles to the west and also contains the TEN fields has a bit more running room but over the years has been fairly comprehensively explored. With the exception of the Jubilee part in DWT, the rest of DWT has been fairly disappointing as developments like Tweneboa, Enyenra and N'tomme (TEN) have under-performed. Realistically there is not much chance at all of new, moving the needle oil discoveries IMO. Unless they come up with a new geological model and explore the underlying mid-cretaceous which is probably unlikely (since no-one at TLW has even suggested that).

On the producing assets. TEN has been a bit of a **ite show. 80K bopd became 20K bopd in fairly short order. Now 15K bopd. A plodder. Jubilee has a bit more life remaining but needs quite a lot of new wells to offset decline. It's a mature asset past its prime.

So basically it's all about sqeezeing costs and trying to sustain production from what we have at a level that could produce enough free cash flow to pay off a reasonable chunk of the debt to enable another refinancing in 24 months.

The high Oil Price obviously helps a lot. Looks like Jubilee (and the company) could come in near high production guidance range FY2026 which effectively reduces the % of total oil hedged as the upside production probably isn't hedged.

There are some favourable tail winds which one would have thought should be supportive to the SP. But as ever where the SP eventually ends up? I have no idea.

Ghana.gov are a bit of a wild card. They owe us $220m but seem reluctant to cough up. Perhaps hoping for a favourable ruling from the first of two arbitration cases with a verdict from the first due in 2H26. OTOH the money could come tomorrow. It's political. It's africa. If it comes - good! But don't count on that happening any day as it may not.

Aventadorr - don't answer that as JMAX will hold it against you for eternity!

You could buy Lamborgini UK's entire current new stock of Aventadorr's at that conversion rate :)

If it doesn't work out give Aidan Heavy (one of the TLW founders and it's former, former, former CEO) if he'd like to sell his Lambourghini LM002.

Sam is over 80 yrs. Seplat are quite happy in their existing playground.

I'm not totally convinced they will but M & P might be interested (since their debt is cheap as about 73% owned by Pertamina).

Whatever JMAX!

Glad to have you on board ........finally.

JMAX @ 4p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 5p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 6p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 7p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 8p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 9p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 10p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 11p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 12p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 13p SAM & AZV aren't buying

JMAX @ 14p SAM & AZV aren't buying.

JMAX @ 15p SAM & AZV aren't buying.

JMAX @ 18P "I bought - it's in my posting history"

"it is in my posting history."

If you say so!

"The junior Notes $428m Being SOFR + PIK 12.75% (SOFR is currently 3.66%) that equates to 16.41%"

+0.75% PIYC = 17.16%

Tonyb33,

Your numbers ($220m, or whatever) and mine ($250m, or whatever) for the annual interest (including PIK & PIYC) on TLW outstanding debt are essentially the same. Yours are for 2025 FY. Mine are for 12 months ahead effective issue date the new bonds. Whatever it is a hell of a lot of interest.

Clearly the high OP helps here. But TLW have to set aside $125m to pay for the FPSO lease. Maintain headroom at $200m. Settle the $60m refinancing fee (some of which was recapitalised into debt). Pay semi-annual compounded interest on the debt...... It all adds up and diminishes what is available for debt pay down.

OTOH we may be safe as I don't see anyone dumb enough to take on Tullow's debt/2P ratio.

TLW's EV is what $1.8bn, or let's be generous about $15/bbl?

Whereas Seplat's MNPU deal went through at $EV/2P Ratio: $2.0/boe

M&P's Assala deal was proposed at $7.53/bbl

So clock ticking. Tick-tok to another refinancing in 2 yrs?

@Tony

USA have already lost

Situation before/after

Before war Hormuz was open. It is closed now.

Before war Russian oil was sanctioned. That floating oil has now been sold.

Before war Iranian oil was sanctioned. That oil has now been sold boosting IRAN's revenues (albeit straits now closed again.)

War Aims

1. Regime change. The ruling 'moderates' in Iran were murdered by the US. The guys running things now from the SAME regime are more militant than before. How can that be better?

2. The nuclear material is still there and there is little sign IRAN is willing to give it up.

From the Iranian point of view

1. Many US military bases in the area have been rendered unusable demonstrating that US defences were ineffective.

2. Some ME States now are starting to rethink their dependence on an unreliable US for defence.

3. It's now possible the US will completely withdraw from the ME.

USA have been completely humiliated (so far).

The longer this goes on the stronger IRAN's position becomes.

So one way of looking at this is they

Sold Kenya

Sold Gabon

Shot 4D + OBN

Drilled 6 wells

Bought ought the FPSO lease

specifically to get the company to a sellable state with the new seismic and wells to enable the company to be sold so the bondholders could get their money back.

Just think about it by the time they are due to initiate the sales process all that data will be incorporated into the sales documentation!

The hierarchy aiui

1. Revolving Cargo Prepayment Facility

2. the Bonds

3. Glencore

the annual interest on bonds + Glencore is about $139m

plus

PIK $90.2m PIYC $24.4m some/all of which is deferred, or "swept up".

Not an expert but are Tullow even free to buy back bonds? Isn't there an ad-hoc committee running the company from a financial perspective?..... with Semi-annual cash sweeps to hoover up free cash on the 15th of May and 15th Nov annualy with the specific purpose to pay down the debt?