Member Info for xxnjr

"We will find out how accurate these predictions are come April 28th."

Yes - best to wait until results are published. To answer the Q that has been asked, the latest cargo shipped on the 15th and the 5 day average Platts Dated Brent centred around that date was about $102. Incidentally PDB has been trading below spot for the last few days. But here's the thing. Nobody really knows if that cargo went to Kosmos, Tullow, GNPC or even Jubilee Oil Holdings. One can try to guess the pattern but chances are that could be wrong which could skew analysis in a time of high OP volatility.

Then the other thing (as discussed) is hedging. The policy (apparently) remains the same. Basically that means 60% is hedged, 40% unhedged as a general guidance. Within the 60% thats hedged the general guidance is 1/3rd are puts and 2/3rds are collars AND/OR 3 ways. The "AND/OR" makes quite a difference. We can see from recent years financial reporting that the actual ratios of hedging allocation tend to move around and vary a bit. Attempting to guess what the ratios are for 2026 1H is well nigh impossible.

It really is best just to wait for the 28th.

From your earlier comments on IFRS16 I'm assuming you are a qualified accountant?....

Toby - Ok I'm back now I see you got that from 2024FY Results and those are the numbers for 1H 2025 when production (i) was anticipated to be stronger than it actually was and (ii) included 10K bopd of Gabon that is no longer there.

Would suggest less than 16,500 is in 3 ways for 2026. Also refer to 2025 Half Year Report which shows collars are now at C.$59 to c.$76 from memory. Not the numbers you are using. As to the 3rd part of the puzzle how much is in 3 ways and the bought call $ number. Nobody knows.

Tonyb33 - what makes you think the 3 way collar volume is 16,500 bopd?

Sorry 39p

Was it astute to buy Tullow at £2 to £2.50 and sell at 30p. Lol!

JMAX - Clearly it's a guess since TLW haven't told us the latest hedging position! It's based on the email I received from the company as previously mentioned, a read of the last half year report and taking into account their central guidance for Jubilee production.

But anyway "genius" rather than carping from the sidelines what's your estimate of current hedging assuming you have any worthwhile contribution to make?.....

Hedging looses about $19m per cargo at $120 OP

Tonyb33 - I've just skimmed through your many AI's. Suggest you use the following inputs

TLW bblls per cargo 892,707

Unhedged 40%

Hedged 60% ($59 to $76)

25% of "Hedged" sold calls at $86.30

How much is a cargo worth at say $120 PDB?

Strange! I thought I had schooled JMAX in the difference in meaning between Indefinite and Permanent. LoL!

Whatever!.....

Thx for retrieving that JMAX,

No I wrote you are on "indefinite" filter.

Indefinite is not permanent.

To be permanent it would require everyone to filter you and not unfilter you ever again which clearly has not happened, not did I expect that to happen. Hence

"You are on indefinite filter!" which was the action I took.

Good morning JMAX,

I'm now back in the UK. Yesterday you wrote

"xx - You stated that you had permanently filtered me - but you clearly haven't. :)"

As the boards self proclaimed most accurate poster and also an expert in providing other folks historic posts could you kindly provide a link or copy of text where I wrote the above. Tah! Whilst you are doing that I'll be having a 10K walk in and around a local forest carpeted in bluebells at this time of year. I may get slightly wet but no worries! Look forward to seeing your reply later this evening!

YWSML - means the writer craves attention.

Eh! What! "Although JMAX is right!" Never though I'd see those words. Their EGO will explode! I'll unfilter later to see what it's all about :)

ITM increase was primarily due to the DENZ investing £40m (or whatever the no. was) into the company) wasn't it?

It doesn't add up! So our self proclaimed "expert" was "massively down" at 17p having bought in at over £2(?). This apparently flipped into a decent profit after selling at 39p?.....

That's 2 boring and superfluous comments nothing to do with Tullow. (And this makes 3!) Just saying:)

US is going to "blockade" the straits with immediate effect. Anyone who has paid a toll to IRAN Will be denied exit......

Well despite that NYT article 2 US warships apparently entered the straits yesterday to start de-mining operations. Although they now appear to have left. Either way Vance is on a plane back to Washington with no agreement.

That Iran mine stuff was from the "failing fake news" New York Times but attributed to the US side in the talks.