Member Info for xxnjr

Final thing from me. The next tanker.

It's about 2/3rds of a day away. So under my methodology this interval will probably be 13, or 14 days. What does it mean? Well there doesn't seem to be much impact yet on gross field production from the J75-P well if it's on-line. I previously mentioned that (from just looking at a stationary green blob on Marine Traffic) there maybe were some issues with completing this well as that operation overrun by about 20 days. But it is just a green, often anonymous blob! Let's see what the update says!

Hi tonyb33,

Another thing is I gave you some duff info on cargo pricing! To recap I emailed the company about this several years ago and the way I interpreted their reply was - 5 day ave of Platts Dated Brent from date of Bill of Lading. However I've been doing a bit of DYOR on the subject recently in response to your input just to double check I haven't been misleading you. Well a slight adjustment is required as it seems the ave is centred on the BOL date i.e 2 days before, the BOL date itself, then 2 days after.

Apart from that the numbers i gave you before were calculated on the basis that if any of the 5 days were weekend the value from Friday would be used for w/end days. But I just checked that with AI and it's different as only Trading Days count.

e.g if BOL was a Friday the inputs would be Wed/Thurs/Fri/Mon/Tues.

For my purposes it's probably swings and roundabouts as I'm not going into the detail you are. Pricing of cargos and hedging is a complex topic!

Morning Tonyb33,

Thx for the numbers on Uganda. I would recommend using 28.33% for your calculations as the SPA said

"Tullow’s rights as described above are before any back-in by UNOC in the Upstream Segment. UNOC holds a back-in right of 15% in the production sharing agreements for Blocks 1, 1A, 2 and 3A. Following the exercise by UNOC of its back-in rights, the Uganda Interests reduce to 28.3334% of the Upstream Segment."

$5m/month ($60m annual) is a tad optimistic since the guidance from the company was

"c.$15-47 million per annum at plateau, at $70-100/bbl

Based on Brent linked contingent payment of upstream revenues from the acquired interests (28.33% post-Ugandan Government back-in) and at gross plateau rate of c.230 kbopd".

[see slide 13 of https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/8717/4289/1610/Tullow_2024_FY_Results_Presentation_-_FINAL.pdf ]

Sorry brain fade! Should read GPP II unlikely 2027.

Hi Tonyb33,

Thanks for the insights you shared on Saturday. I agree with several of your points, though I wanted to offer a few counter-perspectives.

On the hedging costs, you could be right that they’ve limited the two-way collars, but it’s tough to be certain since Tullow’s current non-disclosure leaves a fair bit of room for speculation.

Regarding the settlement, AIUI the collars aren’t typically settled on a daily basis. If you’re building out a model for this, it’s worth noting that the CME AUBJ6 (Dated Brent) final settlement is a Floating Price. It’s calculated as the arithmetic average of the mid-point between the high and low Platts quotations for Dated Brent for each business day in the contract month. So, for April 2026, the model wouldn't settle on any single day's price, but rather on the cumulative average of those Platts daily assessments across all 20 (or whatever) trading days. It essentially 'smooths' the volatility, which is why producers like Tullow use it as it kind of reflects the way they actually sell their physical cargoes over the course of the month (from a production perspective).

In the Iran situation, production seems to have already dipped to about 2.2 million bpd from a c.3.5 million pre-war baseline. JPMorgan and Kpler suggest their storage might hit its limit in about 20–25 days if the blockade holds, though satellite imagery suggesting they are using VLCCs for floating storage might push that 'shut-in' timeline back a bit further.

Finally, on the GPP II plant in Ghana, I’m still a bit more cautious on the 2026 timeline. Since we haven't seen an FID, a contractor selection, or boots on the ground yet, a 2026 opening feels like a tall order. Even with a signed GSA, the 18–24 month construction window makes me think we might be looking further out.

Essex!!! F'ing hell Mate. Had imagined from your sometimes lofty altitude (sic) that you at least resided in Surrey ;-)

TDDW - "Loon, could I suggest you don't worry about what someone else is saying (e.g. JMAX). You can only control yourself after all."

Is there not a delicious irony in that you appear to be worried about and are attempting to control what Loon is saying!

Whilst insufferable JMAX's posts are more grounded than the other so strangely I'll vote for JMAX!

Very true! He's about 6,000kms away from the 🤡 on this forum!

In the good old days (ISTR) you would just hedge the downside with say puts at $70 and that was it. But these days it has got more complicated with Zero Cost Collars and 3 ways or whatever. Not sure which is better.

Tonyb33 - Don't recall ever writing I had access to the Platts PCAAS00 feed which is exclusively for industry participants. However if you bung over $10,000 I'll attempt to open an account :) Their fee structures are impressive. In the past I've simply used marketscreener XX00000BRENT which is basically "spot". That has always been OK to give an idea of the averaged realised oil price when cargos shipped BUT not who got what. It's only recently with Trump Wars that prices of the two have diverged. I then started using Gemini..... What is "PDB" today? .....but there's some justifiable debate as to how accurate that is. Anyway I'm perfectly happy to wait for results rather than trying to guess who gets what cargo, what the hedging ratios are, what the hedge prices are etc etc Too many unknowns. Rubbish in/rubbish out.

Been out. Thought there would be news now regarding Ghalibaf. But so far nothing confirmed.

"......The report originated from the Israeli news outlet N12 (Channel 12) and suggested that Ghalibaf stepped down due to interference from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) regarding a proposal to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Official Denials: Several Iranian journalists and officials have denied these reports, labeling them as propaganda.

Market Impact: Despite the lack of confirmation, the news caused significant volatility in global markets, leading to a sharp jump in oil prices and a dip in U.S. stock indices. Ghalibaf is still officially listed as the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Some reports also suggest he has been "sidelined" or "restricted" from negotiation duties rather than having resigned his parliamentary seat."

Ghalinaf the lead negotiator for Iran has reportedly resigned which may signal the hardliners are in control which in turn may make agreement with US harder. OP seems to be reacting this evening.

Oh dear. My earlier comment has gone to someone's head!

Sort of slightly off-topic

Talking of hedging our former CEO (before the acting CEO, before the replacement CEO, before another acting CEO, before another replacement CEO) yes that would be Paul McDade........update on Afren's hedging this morning

"Hedging

- Hedges with an average collar ceiling of $90/bbl in place on 50% of the April lifting.

- Approximately 50% of July and September projected sales of 900,000 bbl currently hedged using collar structures with put prices ranging from $60/bbl to $68/bbl and collar ceilings ranging from $77/bbl to $78/bbl."

Well to be fair although JMAX is a Troll with a capital T, he's right about 2 things.

One of them is pretty obvious so nothing much to crow about. Hedging will result in lower revenues compared to not hedging at all. It's the same for all midcaps.

The other one "Tullow debt zombie". Difficult to argue against that either. It's pretty obvious. In'it?

If Ghana cough up the $220m that could change the picture a tad. One might ask why Ghana have paid off most of their other arrears but not Tullow?

Worth pointing out hedging reduced revenue by

2022 $319m

2023 $139m

2024 $74m

Nobody know what the hedges are for 2026 so best to wait for results!

Haven't read most of the comments.

Cargos are based on Platts 5 day ave centered around Bill of Lading Date (which is usually the tanker disconnect date)

The hedges are financial instruments and referenced against those monthy Platts dated brent derivitive contracts links to which have been provided by various posters on here recently.

Hi Tonyb33

"If you look at the 2025 hedging the absolute collars were only 5% of the book that's where serious money could be lost for the H1 2025 there were only 2,000 BPD"

If you look at 25-1H:- Puts 9,500, Collars 2,000, 3 Ways 16,500. So you are not far out as collars are 7%

However 25-2H:- Puts 4,500, Collars 7,000, 3 Ways 12,500. Meaning collars are 29% of the book. Not 5%

If you factor in 29% collars for 1H-26 then your hedge loss calculations are way out.

The point is, as we have mentioned before, the ratio between collars and 3 ways changes according to how Tullow perceive the market when they placed the hedges which in the main is usually 6 to 9 months ahead. Talk of an impending future "structural overhang" in the oil market probably meant Tullow were more concerned with protecting the downside as the year progressed rather than having access to the upside which may account for the reduction in 3 ways over 25-2H.

For all we know 3 ways could only be 5% of the hedge book as per the most recent disclosure for 1H-2026 hedging in last yrs half year results.

Hi Tobyb33

"How is my prediction for $150 a barrel for next week's Cargo looking :-)"

Would suggest it's not looking very good. Even if we ignore the fact you are using a financial futures quote if you look at the financial future quote for May (AUBK6) well thats trading at $99.