Member Info for xxnjr

Hi Tonyb33 - It's in the interests of both parties to keep talking whether thats tomorrow, this week, next week or later. But if there are no talks and/or the cease fire isn't extended, breaks down or whatever then expect IRAN to take out those East-West pumping stations and the Houti's to send off a few projectiles! Not convinced Trump wants to blow up every bridge, desalination plant or power plant but who knows what he'll do..... maybe he'll give his inherited Nobel Peace Prize from Venezuela to the President of Iran. Anything is possible with Trump ;-)

Whilst the east west pipeline in Saudi has a nominal capacity of up to 7m bopd the loading facilities in Yanbu are more like 4.5m bopd.

Tonyb33 - The destination of the cargo is irrelevant to the timing of when Tullow receive the dosh. Therefore we don't need to keep assuming a cargo is going to Europe to support whatever argument we are making. The majority in fact do not go to Europe. Most go to Asia. Some go to Canada.

19/Mar went to Canada

2/Apr went to Singapore (or beyond)

15/Apr went to pick up a 2nd load at Greater Plutonio (angola)..... probably Asia

the next tanker is owned by China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) and under contract to Unipec (the trading arm of Sinopec) and arriving from Lanshan China which might give a clue.

What is undisputable is that when the self anointed best poster "name a poster better than me blah! blah!" said "the smart money is in PM's" it was suggested that maybe it was better to sell high priced PM's and buy oil. No they said. But miraculously when PM's crashed a mere 14 hrs later and after the crash they said they saw it coming even though this was not evident from their comments the previous day!

JMAX - wouldn't it have been more sensible to buy oil last Friday rather than buying on Monday when it's already gone up?.....

If you say so!

Is it really necessary to start a new thread "S of H" in place of "Straits of Hummous" (sic)? !

(According to AI) Saudi are still exporting about 4.5m bopd through Yanbu. Which is about 60% to 65% of their usual oil export volume. IRAN is currently producing about 3.5m bopd. Various estimates suggest on shore storage is OK for another 15 to 45 days of production.

Why do people (plural) who have nothing to say insist on starting new topics that just clutter up the board?

So finally we have some movement of the drilling rig. I mentioned I'd forgotten to note the co-ordinates of J75-P when that started drilling as I was travelling in January. But when I looked about 1 month ago the rig seemed in the same location as in January. Anyway with those coordinates noted, a visual move seemingly apparent today, new coordinates noted today, the rig is now about 3.88 kilometers NE (49°) of what must have been J75-P location all that time. That means it's been on J75-P about 100 days and approx 56 days of completion operations since Kosmos told us TD had been reached and net pay recorded. That's about 20 days extra than average. Why? who knows. Bourbon Evolution 802 which has a 150-tonne active heave compensated lifting capacity was in a fixed location for about 10 days 2 km N of the FPSO until a few days ago so maybe that was sorting out some sub sea plumbing the FPSO end before the well could come on? Who knows? Wait to the 28th I guess!

Ghana - the whole thing is a mess. There are (as you probably know) 2 arbitration cases in the works or ongoing against Ghana as a result of the latter's spurious tax demands. Seperately Ghana owe Tullow $200m receivables. Ghana require more gas. It all needs sorting out holistically NOW without being tied up in arbitration for another 12 to 24 months. This is what Tullow are hopefully working towards. But you know it needs Ghana to maybe recognise their tax claims are going nowhere and let's get the gas show on the road now.

Tony - You are right. There are some future revenue streams adding up usefully. The biggest win perhaps would be if ghana.gov came to their senses and paid Tullow the $200m or whatever owed. This would be doubly useful as Tullow could pay down some debt reducing future compounding interest accumulation. I kind of had the feeling from the CEO's comments on the refinancing webcast that movement on gas receivables might be imminent. But so far nothing. Fingers crossed!

It's 28% after Ug.gov exercised back in rights. Train 1 (110 Kbopd) is due on 4Q 2026 and Train 2 (Kbopd unknown) "1H 2027 " according to TE's last Strategy Update. There are over 400 wells. Whilst Tullow have never disclosed what the after tax deductions actually are, the royalty stream has come up in Q&A's analyst calls with a number in the region of $30 to $50m being mentioned by Tullow - well thats what I remember. Why not do what I do from time to time..... email TLW IR and ask them for some guidance. They are usually quite helpful.

Sorry bad wording on my part I meant it's basically trading "now" for the current contract at about the same price it was supposed to end the year at according to the futures curves last week.

Brent Spot has kind of already fallen to were it was supposed to be at the end of the year. Big change.

Tony - the best thing to do is listen to Patrick Pouyanné on Total Energies 1Q Results Call in about 2 wks time. Uganda is an impactful project for them. Last I heard the pipeline was about 80% complete with start up pencilled in for 3Q 2026. Plateau is 230K or something. Being built in two phases, or 2 phase start up? There are hundreds of wells. Anyway Tullow's release is here

hTTps://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-agrees-sale-its-entire-stake-lake-albert-development-project-uganda-total/

This is weird. Yesterday and this morning when I asked my phone current PDB pricing it returned about $96 to $98. Same question now and it's saying $140. The drop yesterday according to the FT was due to sellers dominating the North Sea market.

Or about $3m/yr? assuming the roads could handle a 20K trucking operation!

Other than the below quote that information has not been disclosed afaics

"Royalty Payment: In addition to the above, the Seller will receive quarterly royalty payments of US$0.5/bbl multiplied by 80% of total production, subject to oil price, resource and production related conditions to the extent that the Purchaser retains its interest in the Disposed Assets."

I would suggest researching what the actual FDP for Kenya is as it's under new ownership these days. Maybe 20K bopd trucked by mis-2027? Maybe a pipeline in 4 to 8yrs that may increase production to 80K bopd. Nobody knows. Nothing is concrete. It's like Ghana gas. If it were me I'd entirely forget about Kenya until there is actually something concrete that produces a revenue stream.

Well we won't know for months until Petrocom publish the data. But personally speaking I never been comfortable predicting who got which cargo.