Member Info for TDDW

PS, you said "investment banks, financial institutions all try and guess what oil prices will be a week....".

They most certainly don't. They try and get their customers to guess and then they provide the financial instruments to express those guesses - with only minimal net exposure as they broker the risk off their books. I know of no London domicile bank with an Oil inventory, although there are over 400 of them. It's not capital efficient for banks to trade oil but it's incredibly profitable to suck up people like you and me into this market instead.

The SPR is a joke - I think, but truth can be stranger than fiction.

There are lots of counterparties in the market who need to maintain inventory of oil whilst minimising the capital they tie up. When I hear numbers like 83x the physical I think about all the silly comparisons of Derivative nationals used in the financial crisis. A trillion notional IRS is a lot less worrying than a billion notional CDS but you need to understand the derivates underneath the trade and what the beneficiary is trying to achieve. Unless people describe what's underneath that number I'm not going to take it seriously.

Newbee007, I agree a refinance is a key milestone. I wonder if $90 is enough. If it's $90 because the global economy is growing like weeds then yep.

If it's $90 and it's causing a global tax on growth then share price won't move - in fact we would be better if oil kept down to $70.

The share price will move before the refinance. You need that first before the refinance (9 out of 10 times). You need to be able to demonstrate you could raise equity instead of debt. If you can't walk away from the debt then you can't negotiate.

Also, Tullow is worth more to a Kuwaiti oil prince than a Shell or BP exec. Not sure that is priced in.

Good spot H2Nick.

Ok assume that the Permian Basin goes short water due to drought and Fracking sand can't be pumped into wells for a few months.

Not very exciting. Much prefer a storm.

Ok let me try and explain why that shorts "83 paper barrels" may not be a disastrous a figure as you might think. (Don't worry the financial system ain't going to collapse because of an oil spike)

Imagine you own an SPR. You have sold the oil of your SPR last month at $100 a barrel.

You know you need to fill up the SPR in the future so you go to the futures market and spot that you can buy September Crude for 60 dollars. (these numbers are just made up).

It's now July and the spot oil prices have rallied to 80 dollars due to a missile or two (Spot is today's price/not a future price). You can short oil, knowing that even if the oil price rallies your trade will make money, as long as you close your short and future on the same day in September. ** very few entities are allowed to go short physically in the oil market. It will be a financial short and so should have limited basis risk - assume all priced in dollars

Two issues with this

1) you can end up with an empty SPR if oil rallies from $80 and your boss might not like that, even if your P&L is stonking that month

2) there are typically margin requirements that could squeeze you out (QCCP margin requirements typically increase during crisis, please see BIS website for current data - not had time to read it myself but its always very comprehensive if you KVA calculations). As long as you hold both legs under the same ISDA and CSA you would be very unlucky not to make the margin

Basically I'm trying to describe a "matched book". Commodity houses (I've never worked for one but...) are likely to be fully hedged overnight but have a matched booked over the oil curve - especially oil out into 2028 and beyond. It is similar to how banks go into the Repo and Reverse repo market. The regulator will allow a bank to carry a matched book if they have the necessary trading chops to manage the ebbs and flows. There is no Commodity regulator but Glencore and Trafigura are likely to be a sophisticated as JPM or UBS.

If you like there will be gaps in their maturity ladder, where in the future more oil is turning up than the Commodity house expects to sell on therefore they might plug the gaps using shorts, smoothing the curve. So those 83 bits of paper are actually reducing the risk of the system overall not increasing

My understanding is the speculative market is very net short but not at unprecedented levels. Not got a Bloomberg terminal or similar to confirm.

Really hard to read the market on this one as it's in everyone's interest to lie about their position. The only entity that sees net position are QCCP's so if they suddenly increase their margin requirements - out of quarter - then you know there is an issue.

My bad. Miss-read your post.

Remember a lot of those paper shorts can be closed using smuggled oil that will not appear in any official numbers. The Grey market normally has to move outside of the physical EIA world taking a discount to what the normal market trades at. There has never been a better time for sneaking in embargo'd oil past the Americans. Would love to know if the quid pro quo is that the smugglers have to take Dollars or if they can take Gold or Bit coin.

Lenin, I take the other side of that argument. What will determine if TLW is good investment is the long end of the oil curve and not the short end. This board spend too long on war porn and spends too little time working out what refineries are doing, what inventories are doing and what long term demand is doing. Although I did see one post about tea pot refineries ... so there is some hope. PS, silver is important too.

Oilinterest. Well if that's what's wrangling JMAX he's going to go apoplectic when he finds out what Musk thinks SpaceX is worth.

What ... a Managing Director who thinks his company is worth more than the market values it at the moment. Where is such a company. Is there such a thing! Could one build an ETF just containing those shares.

It topped out at 18p so Lennin missed by a bit over 10%.

I'm still waiting for your prediction of below 10p. I would like to buy some more at that price. I should have ignored your advice and just brought in at 11p - you live and learn.

And don't get me on your Silver call in May. Your predictions this year have been awful.

You should have gone on that holiday. Sharpens the mind.

If he can prove Tullow has gone in and edited an RNS to remove the 2 billion quote then I want that evidence. It's far more valuable than you realise. I just doubt the evidence is there.

Thankyou Newbee007. I should probably put up a calc/arg why I always say... "Tullow will go higher". Just busy doing gardening, with this weather I spend most my time driving to the local tip dumping off dead plants. As I always say. It's important to have a hedge on at all times.

Show the proof. We only have your word that there is a discrepancy. This seems important to you. I'm less fussed.

JMAX. Did you take before and after screen shots. You will need that as to proof they are manipulating their RNS.

NewBee, supply calculation showing it should be 20p. When and what price oil and what price Ten year.

Obviously freak storms etc can cause a quick rally to 20p.

JMAX., You're wasting time. Get those lawyers in motion now. This time next year you could be a millionaire.

Have you thought how hard it would be to go in and update the RNS database. Sovereign state capability that. I didn't know the Ghanaian government had such reach. Should have got their football team in the next round and over turn the Columbia result

Come on let's not use the Gamestop analogy. The shorts were OVER 100% short gamestock even before Roaring Kitty wrote his first post. Tullow has a short of 2%.

If you want a shorts squeeze. What if Oil got squeezed.

We are in an El Niño year. Imagine a massive hurricane hitting the Gulf of America knocking out the oil platforms. Trump does an executive order to stop all American Oil (Fracking oil) from leaving the country.

Yes WTI would crash to $40 but Brent would go to $120.

Won't happen but at least it's more original than.... OOOOO there could be a short squeeze.

It's not my advice. It's how the laws of the land works. Why not talk to your lawyers. They can confirm the FCA regulates this and what's more ... if you were right, and you have supplied no proof, just conjecture .... then your lawyers should explain how you can make significant money out of the LSEG if you handle it correctly.

Good morning all,

JMAX I suggest you contact the FCA. If Tullow is getting the LSEG to edit the RNS then that would be a serious offence. Not sure why LSEG would conspire with TLW and loose its multibillion dollar monopoly - but will enjoy reading about it in the FT if I'm wrong. May be they see the hidden value of Tullow and they have gone long and are doing a FIFA. Suggest you unsubscribe to these YouTube conspiracies channels. May be leading you astray.

Property, "What ever happened to the element of surprise?" well the element of surprise is that the CIA showed Trump a map of Cuba not Karg Island.

He will never know the difference.

In the last year how many shares did Fresno insiders buy. (clue it rhymes with nero)

How much would you have lost if you had "not ignored" the lack of insider trading and stupidly followed your own advice (need to get the lawyers out to find the true value)

I'm not saying you are inconsistent it's just you aren't very consistent. Actually I'm just bored and thought I'd post something. Afternoon all.