Member Info for TDDW

I consider Ghana better than most but a hard nose bond holder can't recognise false tax claims. The Cynic would say McDade new he would hit trouble once the oil was flowing and that the excessive debt was a way of tunnelling the assets out of Ghana before the harsh reality of mining in the global south hits (smart man). It's part of the game, so I'm told. No Solace for TLW equity holders - although now priced in.

I have to say, however, I look at KOS's debt and they don't look cheap. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of a pairs trade. Long TLW short KOS.

JMAX - it would be a 10 bagger for me, however it probably means we had high oil prices, crippled Middle East and a bad recession (and Tullow executed flawlessly). A pyrrhic victory if ever there was one. Might be strangely happy if this does turn out to be a dud - you can save this post to flay me with next year.

Net or Gross of debt. Could lead the listener to hear what they want to hear

Pick and Shovel.... Surely drill bit or those contracts will take forever.

Interesting that he said he saw M&A valued barrels at $70 before GW3. Now sees it at $80 - although sellers less likely to sign.

If anyone sees anything that might be credibly fraudulent then post the evidence, making sure you start the post with the world "allegedly" ** and let the crowd pull it apart.

A a simple ChatGP pass is probably not going to show up fraud. Asking "Alexa is Tullow a fraud?" is a bit lazy but ... yeah pull the numbers apart with Chat GPT and let's see if there is any evidence. When I say fraud I mean more miss-statement. I'm sure there's an oil field etc.

** If you don't get the reference to Have I Got News for You then can you leave the board now.

Foresight22 - I think you are quite right. The tone on the call was not self-congratulatory and I think they were hoping for more questions on increasing future reserves and not on previous lumpy reserves.

They probably have a year and half. But imagine the same situation and oil at 50$. They are never going to get a chance like this again and the rewards will be great.

I know it's insane. Only people contractually obliged to buy Tullow in the future. I see them as my customer. And JMAX the customer is always right !

If you have just spent six months talking to Glencore about how your "business is not worth what you think and you should be grateful to pay 14% interest" - I would be reticent to buy more. Luckily I haven't. So I'm not.

Really could do with JMAX. He loves going old posts looking for outdated numbers. I'm just a beginner (I'm going to regret that comment)

Sorry still not TLW related

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(I took over my first bank before 23) sadly it would, 5 years later, go under bringing the UK economy with it.

Anyway, I'm not exactly arguing. I Would just point you to the SiliconDollar complex. Now-a-days Korea/Taiwan sells chips and memory and recycles the profits into the S&P (via structured products brokered by your old bank and CS). I'm not saying the petro dollar is dead or irrelevant, just that there are more plates to watch spinning.

Petro dollar flows are already in reverse yet strangely S&P still going up - not strange at all if you ask me.

I thought xxnjr was 112

Not TLW related

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So TLW share price is slowly moving in the right direction (unless you want to buy more - looking at you JMAX, last chance. We won't tell if you don't tell).

So zooming out, it's Taco Tuesday. Yeah Trump is obsessed by Oil but also the ten year. American mortgage prices are linked to the 10 year. There is one other reason to be obsessed with the ten year. And I paraphrase a complicated topic. During the end of Covid interest rates moved from zero to 4. If you were Silicon Valley bank you had been locking in rates at zero buy buying the ten year and suddenly your deposit holders started to expect to see some of that 4% as interest. As you may remember Silicon Valley and two other banks went out of business as depositors pulled money to put in banks paying better interest. Now why do I bring this up. There were other banks who had probably locked in too much of their assets at the lower rates but not to a percentage that would kill the bank. I think there was an assumption that over time rates would fall back to a more manageable 3% or 2%. Spoiler, they didn't

Due to accounting rules - sorry Draft I used to work with bank accountants - because interest rates have stayed high and not fallen back down, we will start see this impacting certain banks in America in Q3-Q4. Oil up and regional banks ability to lend hampered

JPM was the star and literally rejected deposits rather than lock in the lower rates - they will shine. Bank of America made no assumption and so has more of this issue to work off. City rhymes with a certain word. It will however be in the regional banks that it flares up big time.

Don't panic. I'm not saying this is a done deal - banks are designed to outgrow their bad debts***. I'm just saying keep an eye on ticker KRE. If the regional banks start to tank then America joins this year's global recession. The irony is this might be good for TLW, unless it brings Ghana government down as well. Anything spitting out predictable cash (oil companies) will be in fashion for refinancing.

If KRE goes then probably best to sell all your hopes and dreams shares and just keep the bullet proof stuff.

*** actually this is not bad debt but bad liability management but let's not go there (google IRRBB if you are interested)

Good morning Draft

But shall we do it on another board. How about TR39?

Draft, you can tell what the market thinks by looking at the share price. (Best time is just before close)

What don't you understand? Let's see if we can go point by point

So they value Tullow at 2 billion, and the current enterprise value is 2.3 billion. I thought I'd get in there before JMAX :-)

130. I think xx was closest. Well done

Sageman - team is smaller than usual (so I don't think they war game everything) . Move fast and break things is the moto. FDR was the last president with this approach. FDR - more of a Gentleman. More reason to break down status Quo. Any way, Tullow...

Scrodingerscat - ouch you win. I do think his wife is very glamourous. An upgrade on the Barbara Bush years