Member Info for TDDW

I don't know If I'm quite in Trump's Inner Circle as you are JMAX. Sorry couldn't resit. But my Silver stocks are still doing very well today. HBR has turned out to be less of a safe harbour than I would have thought - I can do this all day. Anyway... Onwards and up.

So is the American government. Higher Oil price is the cure.

Well Welsh19747, WTI is almost at $90.

This is the price that Trump tends to get berligerent again. Remember higher oil prices are a tax and America - being a large oil producer- is therefore a large oil tax collector!

I wonder if the Supreme Court had not struct down his tariffs in Jan then he might not have invaded Iran. What the Repubilcan's will do to get the deficit down and get the tax cuts out. I guess they are predictable (hence VIX at 16-18 range)

Well you have to sack a guy who spells Fraudulent "Forgent"

Auston, Totally agree - not really my point. For the last 9 months I've probably watched nearly every open. Hundreds of shares - flicking through screen after screen. Will they rally, will they dip.

There is just a familiar look to the open (unless significant news brakes)

It's hard to describe quantitatively.

All I would say is (and this is not just for PM stocks but most stocks). For the last couple of days. If you had a reasonably close trailing stop or limit you would have been taken out. Yet the Vix is so low. I'm not a technical analyst so I can't articulate what I see.

Paranoidly, It's like the market makers are taking out the guard rails. So is it going to rally up or rally down. Or have I just got heat stroke from gardening.

I guess so. As I said. Looked extreme in a market that has been characterised as insanely moderate.

Not Tullow related - please ignore

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Hi JMAX. Wouldn't mind your opinion on something.

A couple of weeks ago you said the trade was long Oil and short precious metals. I could see the short term logic. But decided to hold my positions in PM - I'm a sucker for a down and out story.

The market opened in a very violent way today (14:30GMT). Ok, Silver is up quite a bit today but you would expect the silver miners to move as a fraction (80%) of Silver not a multiple(2x). Basically to my crude eye, it looks like traders are caught very badly off-side. Do you have any view or opinion. Anything unusual happened in the PM space across the board such as Comex increasing collateral for margin calls?

Yesterday and Today are the first two days where I can see real whip sawing of prices (Tullow up 20% down 20 ish) and the VIX is only 16. Seems to be a lot of stress under the bonnet. Bit early in the year for CoVid vibes but my nose is definitely running.

Warning, I have got this wrong so far - I thought Trump would have TACO'd by now. But why do I think $142 whereas TonyBB thinks $230. I'm obviously now erring on a longer conflict/war - and for that to happen £230 mustn't happen, IMHO. [Or at least not this year]

Despite Monday, there is very little that is Kinetic since the ceasefire. The big tell is Israel isn't kicking Lebanon. Forget the odd Boat being fired at - boats in a narrow straight can be tracked by the media, at very little cost to them. Planner knows this and therefore the visibility is part of the purpose - we are supposed to see the boat get hit. Remember we didn't get to see any of Venezuela on our twitter feeds.

This is a stalemate. South Korea and North Korea have never signed a peace deal. Turkey and Cypriot war never signed a peace deal. May be Ukraine Russia will never sign a peace deal.

Time gives both parties a chance to sell to their respective people that they have not drawn but they have WON!!!!.

I listen to a lot of podcasts and I'm becoming surprised by how often Americans seem to think the war is basically over - they are literally getting bored. [Need to own some TLW and that will spice things up for them.]

But what about Gas at the pump costing 5$. Just call it a "cost of living crisis" guys. It worked for the Brits. When the Ukraine war caused energy to go up politicians were pathological about calling it a cost of living crisis, rather than saying it was an Ukraine crisis.

In both Covid and Ukraine supply chains were impacted and they showed resilience greater than appreciated by the intelligentsia. The real lesson was that as long as people don't hoard, supply chains will adjust. Price is part of that adjustment and we are seeing that as a country get's hit by missing barrels they find ways of adjusting. And if you follow the supply chains the last country which will need to adjust is 1) America and 2) might not need to start adjusting until after the mid terms.

Less Oil will flow, but as long as Oil flows, the economies will basically carry on. If however you get $230 then people will hoard and the oil will stop flowing.

I know what I say sounds implausible but the last 2 years has been implausible so I'm Ok with it.

American economy is going to roar ahead because of:

- Data centre build out,

- BBB tax relief dropping now

- and the relative advantage of WTI costing 12-15 over Brent

Tullow will get to ship more boats at the 100-120 mark.

American Banks will be busy lending to Data Centres and so American Shale (the only swing producer) will not be able to adjust (much) for the missing 10 million barrels

Saudi basically Ok, as they are shipping some oil. UAE, Bahrain etc must be hopping mad.

China doesn't get much of a say unless they are prepared to sail a navy out and pick a side (not going to happen)

Europe too busy designing plastic bottle caps to save the water vole - viva the wat

Possibly JMAX.. however.

For the first six weeks of the war TLW swung between 13p and 10p. This board cried out. " Why is Tullow so cheap!!!" Some said the thesis was wrong other that the market was wrong. Anyone selling during that time was giving the Market makers an easy in, and they have used it to build up a small stockpiles of Tullow.

Aren't we just in for another month or so of TLW bouncing around 18p and 15p before the next move up.

If you are family office or fund, don't you look at this share and go. "I can get in slowly over time because there is a dumb money overhang". As long term holders slowly give up - understandably considering how shabbily they have been treated.

Sadly the hackney joke about the Irish man swimming the channel and giving up 100 m from the shore springs to mind.

When the board said they valued TLW at 2 billion they didn't say when they valued it at 2 billion.

Have you visited a restaurant recently. I did a bit of sampling and enjoyed my evening. They've hedge their gas and power

JMAX, I agree the share price is driven by the dreadful war.

Isn't it however, great news that Tullow can help oil refineries in Europe carry on so that fertilisers can be produced and diesel can fuel tractors. Would this awful war not be even worse if it was for diversification?

Doesn't it show the hidden value of having oil close to Europe but not bottled up in a straight of H?

I know this great little West African oil company. Still less than 500 million and therefore off most Podshops buy list with real turn-around story potential.... and its not KOS.

Just saying

And so it begins

"We will direct excess free cash flow toward accelerated debt reduction and further strengthening the balance sheet. Our exposure to premium international oil markets positions Kosmos to capture value from current market dislocations and reinforces our confidence in the path ahead"

And so it begins

"Capricorn announces that it has fully repaid its $30m Junior Debt Facility loan TWO YEARS ahead of schedule, following $81m in collections from the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation year to date."

Just to be clear, this bet is for Platts dated Brent. (is that right?)

Trump has the authority to block American oil from leaving America - what was congress thinking.!!!

I think we are a long way from this but ... if he blocked American crude tomorrow then WTI ** is likely to fall to $75 - in days - but the rest of the world will find

1) there oil prices have gone up drastically from $105

2) all the empty tankers sailing to America are now in the wrong place.

3) JMAX claiming he won the bet

This would be good for TLW but England would have to goto an enforced lock down, similar to CoVid, as petrol would be too expensive for basic travel.

Tony would only be able to travel 5 knotts an hour in his new yacht.

The puncture repair kit for my dingy will now be out of reach, as the price of plastic sky rockets.

**WTI is the price of oil delivered to Cushing Texas. England needs oil delivered to the North Sea terminals (Brent oilfields -named after the Brent goose)

Technically JMAX has posted on this board that he thinks oil is going back to $75. You could use that price.

Ok, not sure why I did this.

I've dug out some quotes for shorting Tullow - may not be the most competitive quotes. Please note, 4.5% is as if the share was as good as borrowing cash (company is triple AAA)

https://a.c-dn.net/c/content/dam/publicsites/1721742478000/go-anywhere-files/Current%20Stock%20Deal%20Settings_spreadbetting_professional.pdf

At 22.5% it's expensive to hold a short in Tullow.

But not as expensive as Falcon Oil & Gas Limited. At 72%, if it took Falcon 1 year and 3 months to go to zero, you would pay the prime broker and not make any money on your short.

If JMAX has been short the same "notional" exposure for 4.5 years he would have paid the entire position back to his broker and still need to close his short. This is why I doubt he is short.

I'm happy for someone to short my Tullow Stock, if I get paid half the short interest. It'd be like a divi.

I prefer palladyne. Just be aware that Anduril will go up because dumb retail investors pile in, they see war drones on Twitter and confuses it with profits. When the last idiot buys in you have to sell. I don't know when the last idiots buys so it's not for me. Good luck

JMAX - It's not that they worry. They dream of every stock being a Game stock rather than sitting quietly and waiting for the stock to play out.

The danger is they suddenly see the short interest go from 1.8% to zero and think the squeeze is over - because they miss read the dynamics they sell far far too soon.

Shorting plays a far less important part in the market than most retail traders realise.

When the real squeeze is Long Term investors realising TLW is 1) no longer a Zombie stock 2) TLW is over 500 million market cap - they then start to move in at size. Or at least that's my guess. What is your guess.

Anyone got a more industrial trading platform - Tonybb3, you don't have a friend in UBS who has a Bloomberg terminal.

I know JMAX isn't short TLW but ... JMAX if you were short what is the current monthly interest on TLW

So my question to you Tornadotony. What is the borrow cost for TLW?

My guess - as I don't have Bloomberg or similar - is it's quite low.

If it doesn't cost Helicon anything to borrow, they can hold a TLW short for ages.

My point is, even if they have to close the short suddenly it won't cause much of a squeeze - market makers will help them out at a very advantageous price, for themselves. Helikon will move on.

These are not the droids you are looking for.