Member Info for TDDW

Xx - I'm just reading SEPLAT ENERGY 1st quarter results and they are not producing enough oil! (Oh how I laughed)

Today Tullow is a market cap of 200 million. In November it had a market cap around 50 million. So if you took out a short of Tullow of 1% in November. You borrowed - drum roll - £500,000 and you now owe north of 2million

I like a short squeeze as much as the next degenerate gambler but I don't see it in the numbers. Now this is a very crude -pardon the pun - calculation.

Does anyone have a CFD account ... and if they do.... Can they tell me what the borrow cost of Tullow is??? If someone said that the borrow cost was 200% then ,yes, we have a short squeeze on (and it will be over in a day or two).

So when people write

"Their short increase at 3.5p was clearly a bet on TLW going bust, which has badly backfired. They were reacting to a share price movement which had already occurred, being reactionary not pre-emptive. Ooopsy."

I'm not convinced.

At the moment I'll read Draft posts about his music choice before I read about short squeezing TLW. They contain more Tullow relevant information. Could I suggest Yazz's "The only way is UP baby for you and me now..."

Loon, I don't mind JMAX. I'm happy to hear the other side of the story.

The one thing that does annoy me is using ambiguity and then claiming he's some great prophet.

For exmple "War in the ME will take oil above $100 - but TLW just don't produce enough oil."

What does that even mean? At $100 dollars a barrel I'm not producing enough oil - forget Tullow.

Who defines what is enough? Is there a ministry for producing enough oil? According to the market if you brought Tullow in November you are up over 400%. It seems to be enough for the market - JMAX seems less convinced by the market reaction. He won't say what price he will change his mind.

If Tullow could double its oil production at a click of the fingers so could KOS, so could HBR etc and there would be no Oil crisis. The exact reason why Tullow is going up in value is why you should hold Tullow - no one is producing enough.

This is why I say Tony is the most accurate poster. He says something measurable rather than emotional.... Oh I don't like oil at 100 but I'm not going to tell you why. That's Ok but accept that you are not the most accurate poster on the board or pull your socks up.

He's not even addressed why the share price is going up.

Good evening JMAX. Hope you had a chance to enjoy the sun before the weather changes tomorrow.

What's your timeline for oil to get to $75? And is that via a Max oil of $120 or $500. Path really matters in these commodity squeezes.

I can see oil getting back to $75 by Q4. Wouldn't that still take some of the sting out of the debt and put Tullow's position is a more secure - less zombie - stance.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/fossil-fuels/

The link shows you the average fossil fuel stock fell 1.3% today, whereas Tullow rose 8%. Now I'm going to argue why I think this divergence, that is starting to happen, is important (Tullow is not your average Oil stock on the FTSE)

If you are a FTSE 250 UCITS manager you will be looking at your portfolio and probably going. Trump Always Chickens Out.

And so most of your stock picks will be looking forward to when the Straits is open- think Rolls Royce and Ryan Air.

However you have a niggling doubt. What if this goes on another 9 or 10 weeks. Then my TACO trades will look dumb and my investors will be on my back

And that is when your eye casts itself towards Tullow. You may not like Tullow and you almost certainly hate its poor ESG credentials. But what you realise is .... if I am wrong ... and it goes another 9 or 10 weeks then this little share will rocket. (Especially after checking the webcast and confirming that they have not Hedge this years oil to zero).

So you buy a little Tullow as a hedge. So not enough that you have to declare a position. Just something to allow you to risk manage your other TACO views.

Multiply that bias via lots of nameless UCITS managers and you get something Tullow has not had since 2006. Momentum. Sorry JMAX, upward MOMENTUM

Not buying Tullow because they like Tullow but buying because it acts as insurance against all the trades they really like.

From my experience UCITS managers always chicken out or UCITSMACO as I like to call it.

If you look through the stocks with high oil convexity. Most of them are dream stocks. QED and ATOM may become very good companies one day but Tullow is a real business selling a real product. You could buy Enquest or Harbour but they just don't move as much - limited convexity until oil goes to $200. High oil prices won't move their credit rating as much because their rating is basically OK and isn't a detraction from their stock price. They don't give you the kick you need to hedge.

Any way I ramble.

Newbee07 - I think you are saying there is never a bad time (or price) to buy TLW.

Tullow 450% up from its 52 week low!

Another 2.5p and it will be a 5 bagger

Hat tip to Tony ..."My call we will chug along. We will get a blip end of April once the 2025 numbers are out. We will be able to see the hedging strategy for 2026, updates as to whether hedging was changed on declaration of war, and we will be able to see the net credit on the IFRS16 lease which will be released H1 2026."

He's on a roll! Talking of which, so is TLW share price.

This is the boring part where nothing happens and TLW slowly creeps up day after day. Can I suggest you discuss the price of an oil barrel as it is the biggest determinant factor of TLW share price.

My guess is Platts dated Brent will be $142. I hope you both have put in your guesses for the next load.... You get to lord it over the board for a month it you win.

Draft, If you still have any friends in DHL, could you tell us when a Nuclear Bomb shaped package is sent from Greenham Common to Tehrane.

Sadly Racheal Reeves can't afford the missiles, so it will probably be second class. No need for a signatory.

Fewdollars - no shame not buying at 3.5p. It's one thing taking a punt when you have a clean slate and it can be a multi bagger quite quickly. If you have a position, and you are averaging down, you won't see the multi bags until something insane happens.

Anyway, you may see quite a tidy profit quite soon if this escalates, without having to risk additional capital.

Paul Tudor Jones puts a sign over his desk "losers average losers". He knows a thing or two about risk management. The hard part is realising the situation has fundamentally changed and deciding if TLW warrants adding to or if it is a hold. My head says I should add my heart says I should be buying consumer discretionary. Anyone have a view on Mulberry?

Xx you are obviously a connoisseur of boats - Essex does have the longest coast line in Britain, so I should look into it.

I'm more likely to recycle my profits into a bombed out stock or bond. If this conflict goes kinetic may be I'll be looking into Abu Dhabi REITs. Dark times.

Much preferred buying bombed out Biotech stocks claiming to cure Covid.

It's probably part of a pair trade to hedge West African oil against a Long in West African name (KOS for example). So much ink spilt on this nothing burger short.

PS, £2.00 quid is a bit strong! I will have sold long by then and brought a nice little dingy so be careful hoonning around with that Sun-seeker.

If there is a Straights of H deal then on a relative basis ... You would expect HBR to do less well than GKP.

Let me explain ---

GKP would start selling oil and HBR would have a competitor that it didn't have before. So good for GKP but less good for Harbour

If traders are betting that is what is happening next then you would buy GKP and sell HBR in anticipation of the straights opening

So a question for you .... If traders are more likely to sell their HBR and buy GKP what would you expect to happen to the respective share price.

Bigger picture is both companies are selling oil at higher prices than last year and HBR is a far more diversified company. I hold both.

PS, if traders are performing both trades but using leverage .... what do you think will happen if the straight doesn't open and the banks call in those margin loans. Asking for a friend.

Although I've only started posting recently I have been lurking on this board since CoVid - I'd check in see how people were doing. Many of the characters seem familiar to me even though I've only chatted with them recently. In particular I have really enjoyed JMAX vs Anton back and forth (although I hadn't realised it had gone to court - feel that's a bit Eastenders but anyway).

So based on these conversations I have assumed TLW is a heavily shorted stock. I didn't even think to check. I'VE JUST CHECKED how much TLW is shorted.

Ffs 1.8%.

Well... we aren't going to get a short squeeze with that guys!!!

May be ... May be 15p to 15.5p. This ain't no Gamestop. How have you all got so excited over 1.8%.

I can't tell you how disappointed I am. Could someone at least short another 0.2% so we get it to a couple of percent. I have a alterego I need to massage.

Sorry Draft, I should have said "oil shares" not oil. I don't talk in a weird way. I just don't know grammar and use long words instead, or floccinaucinihilipilification.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/fossil-fuels/

Oil shares this week has been flat. (see above). Tullow has been up 20%. A long way to go before TLW is trusted by the market but going in the right direction. This week has not been an oil price rally!!! Do oil companies deserve a rally!!!!

I'm going $142

I phoned us Scott Bessant and he wants to be put down for $175.

Rubio $160 and a return trip to Cuba

Hegseth said the entire Return of the Jedi Endor fighting set 1987

JDT said it will be a beautiful barrel of oil. Some say the most beautiful.

The wall of worry

----------------------

Big gains in shares typically climb what traders call a "wall of worry".

So JMAX has been making some very valid and useful comments about TLW

I don't take them as a slight on my manhood but a list of events that, if they happen, will move the share price UP. (I'm guessing now)

At some point in the next 2-3 months we will start seeing the management buy further Tullow stakes - more than their yearly ISA allowance

At some point in the next 2-3 months we will start seeing banks give Tullow increased buy and hold ratings (ignore house brokers who are paid to give good ratings)

At some point in the next 4-5 months we will see Sam increase his holdings or new "Smart money" come in, which was no where to be seen in November when TLW hit 3.5p

At some point in the next 9-12 months Ghana will release the tax money - dependant on their sovereign ratting going from CCC to BB

At some point in the next year there will be drill results and the reserves will grow appreciably. Fingers crossed

At some point we will have a renewed gas agreement with the Ghana government and the agreement won't be derisory (unlikely to be spectacular contract, just good)

These and a few others are the questions weighing on the share price that will get resolved and move the share price up!

This isn't due to the management team being necessarily that much better than the last. This is due to oil being above $90. Everything that weighted upon the share prices flips in an Alice in Wonderland world and becomes a new rung in the ladder higher. And one day you will see glowing article in the FT about Tullow and its shrewd management team, what a set of street fighters.... Do sell when you read this and book your profits!

The really annoying part of these trades is you have to front run the event. If you wait for the event to happen the price has already moved and you don't get the benefit. This company got destroyed by leverage but the leverage is now slowly unwinding.

PS, xx I did mention that Sam has not increased his holdings in other Oil companies. He doesn't seem to be very bullish on oil.

Bragging rights go to Tony. Well done.

JMAX if Sam brought a significant whack of TLW ... Let say he goes 16.7% to 19.9%. What would you estimate the change of price would be? And do Market Makers have spare inventory or would they have to phone round and haggle?