Member Info for TDDW

Property, "What ever happened to the element of surprise?" well the element of surprise is that the CIA showed Trump a map of Cuba not Karg Island.

He will never know the difference.

In the last year how many shares did Fresno insiders buy. (clue it rhymes with nero)

How much would you have lost if you had "not ignored" the lack of insider trading and stupidly followed your own advice (need to get the lawyers out to find the true value)

I'm not saying you are inconsistent it's just you aren't very consistent. Actually I'm just bored and thought I'd post something. Afternoon all.

@Ken17, Thank you for your feedback. When you say "gut feeling". Was there any other discussion prior to this. It seems a very specific number - although some people's guts are more numeric than others.

Well said Krono5. I think it's a bit later than July but happy to be proved wrong.

Anton, before you get juiced up about Revenge. Write a list of what they can get and then write a list of what they want. Two very different lists.

In the recent past Iran has funded at least two assassination attempts on Trump. If you are Trump you are probably thinking. "Well, will the American secret service be as well funded after I have left the White House?" He cut secret service head counts for Democrats as part of Doge.

This may be a simple as Trump using the American military to make sure his retirement is heart attack whilst cutting roses in an Italian garden - not brain splattered on his wife's dress on a New York street. Who knows, I bet I go on a CIA database for this post JMAX. :-)

Either way, it's not going to drive TLW share price, or at least not up. Pull up a graph of oil prices after the Ukraine war and see how oil prices moved. This is all priced in.

This is at least a two to three year play... however

Trump is off to China in a few months. First visit in May was a total nothing burger

Imagine, if he tries to play hard ball? Last year China cut off rare earths and raised the price of Tungsten. They could probably do the same to tin! They have less of a choke hold on tin

Then you would become a hot commodity! If I'm honest, I would want a lower entry point but in four months time I could be kicking myself....

Scrodingerscat, out of interest. Any info on the website about building out gas fired electricity plants in Ghana. Selling gas to fire a global industry or selling gas to a local Ghana house wife to cook with have two different prices.

He may have a point. I'm not sure it's going great guns for Iran. You can only get so much oil out over land and if USA decide to bomb their oil refineries then there's an awful lot of oil that will get shut in (or they have to explode the well heads and let them burn, like Kuwait 1990)

I hate saying Trump might have a point. It's become an article of faith Trump will give in by the mid terms but I think that's wrong.

Now for TDDW to go all Pycops - can you hear the X-file music playing in the back ground .... My guess is it's not the mid terms but the stock market. If that crashes he will unblock the Straight as a form of QE. So basically if the next 4 liquidity events pass successfully

- Space X IPO (75 billion drain)

- Option Expiry next Thursday (50 billion)

- Anthropic TBD

- OPEN AI TBD

Then he will strangle Iran until he's out of office

So don't look at Truth Social look at the S&P and act accordingly - looking at you Anton.

Big fly in the ointment is Silver can't hold a bid which suggests It's already happening - Yipes

So Anton, if you are going to the meeting, ask if the numbers are based draw date or settlement date

So draw May 26

settlement June 08.

I'm very serious about it being SpaceX day tomorrow. The way the Basel III capital rules work is that the Core Tier 1 you hold for an IPO gets ratcheted up each day until BD5(next Wed) where it becomes 1250%. If Goldman and co don't get it out the door.

It will ripple to London markets. Imagine the Aim market where the market makers are dialled back to feed head office in NY. Not my base case but I am worried.

It could trigger a run. Although I have been building cash for such an eventuality. :-)

If we get something close to Tony's number I think 19p is possible. That still means Anton only gets two biscuits.

The problem is .... tomorrow is SpaceX day so everyone is too busy sucking up to Elon to notice a minnow like Tullow.

Might give you a good entry point JMAX. Especially if the board buys some.

And a big thanks for Tony for his studious work. Roll on tomorrow

Silver fell 5%. Must be lots of pirates ship stuck in the straight of Hormuz as well

JMAX does make some good points. Delivery could be worked on.

On a serious note, if you study PTSD you can see why they did not buy in November, when they got a once in a 10 year opportunity.

The really strange thing is why you didn't buy? If anyone should have been cognisant of the set up it was you. No sunk cost. No emotional scars. The opportunity to confound and brag about standing apart from the Hurd.

Debt zombie rolling its debt for 3 years. The hidden asset if you buy then get an out of the money Call option on the oil price with a 3 year maturity. There's still 2.5 years on the Call!

This is not genius on my part. It's pretty finance 101. When it was trading at the 3.5-3.8 p range it was worth a punt as part of a diversified portfolio. And I was fully aware of China's inventory build out in November (PS I make it 1.5 billion not 1 billion).

As I said. You should think about taking a holiday. You are getting jaded.

And why did SYNT go from 20 to over 100. Again, mechanically obvious if you understand the setup.

That should say $90

My strategy is to buy low and sell high. Very hard to do if it's a 52 week high.

The low was due to debt forbearance. I couldn't have predicted Trump actions in November. I could predict however that the Middle East is a very unstable region at $60 but becomes more stable at %90.

I gave you a free lesson there JMAX. And not even a biscuit in return.

JMAX - if you have another "slight turnarounds" that are up 400% in 6 months do shout. Asking for a friend

Tomorrow, someone keep an eye on Anton. I don't want him eating all the posh biscuits on my coin.

Hard to come up with a positive or negative scenario where Oil isn't at the $90 range. See earlier posts why Taiwan isn't gong to get invaded and why Putin will be pumping less oil in the next 3 years than this year.