Member Info for TDDW

I'm going to take the other side of Tony's Argument. GW3 comes to an end soon. By November Trump is a Lame duck president.

The Big Beautiful bill has a tax wheeze where you get to write off any capital investment in 1 year instead of 20 years. All CEO's are too scared to use it today because they don't know what bonkers Tariff will get slapped on them by Trump. Fear goes away if Trump is Lame Duck

Any Shovel Ready Project (above and beyond data centres) on a Fortune 500 workstack will be started December 2026. They have 2 years to dig and scrape and build before the democrats come in - possibly closing loop hole. Global Economic Growth might be patchy in 2026 but it will be overheating in 2027. No idea about 2028

There is no such thing as Electric concrete. If you want to build China 2 in America you are going to need a lot of petrol, diesel and most importantly Tarmac! FACT (to quote a knowledgeable poster)

The price of Oil will stay high (good for TLW)

Debt levels will increase, but due to changes to the SLR, banks will be able to absorb this relatively easily. Higher rates but not stifling higher

ICE will be quietly shut down as those Mexican left will be working overtime (Texas is the new Dubai when it comes to indentured labour)

JMAX will be on

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.html?sharechart=SOM&share=Somero

saying its a BUBBLE and why aren't INSIDERS buying.

He will also boasting how he 10X TLW in 2026

I'm notorious for going off topic but as we are talking FRES. It's clearly peaked in January, as has all PMs. There's a good argument that the miners should lag the top of commodity cycle - which I think you were making a month of so ago. It's not playing out this time, as people are looking through the operational leverage and seeing lower global growth in the future. They might be wrong but feel like the wrong fight to pick at this price. More likely to find growth in Copper and Nickel - not a recommendation

If you are still holding you are giving back some of your 7X - unless you are expecting a TACO and clean change or Iranian government (e.g. Venezuela) . It really reinforces my point that you seem to have a 2025 mindset and you are becoming myopic - no one likes negative feedback.

Anyway, anyone notice there was a massive drawdown Friday on the NFP numbers and credit spreads have barely moved! Not everything is Oil after all

PS, you can give people all the information in the world and they balls up a decision. FACT!

You had all the information in the world in November and you dropped the ball - as a recent example.

In this market, 20p is possible. I'm in no rush (let see what happens by Labour Day)

Is there any particular manager for TLW that you think understands "buying cheap and selling for a profit". Tullow's history was the complete opposite.

The fact they have nothing left to sell and they have to stick to their knitting is one of the major reasons you could make money on this share. But then you had to think differently from the crowd.

If you look at a graph of the share price since I've owned TLW (November) you will see that the Market has felt TLW was cheap and needed to go up. If you look at the management actions, they disagree. I tend to bet with the market against TLW management.

It's very Nobel of you to support the management judgement but I am more comfortable going with the market.

I get the feeling you didn't get picked first at gym when you were younger

Https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/fossil-fuels/

UKOG down 9% - worst performing

TLW up 4% - in top 10 below Capricorn which is in bid mode.

I like catching falling knives but UKOG doesn't look cheap at that price. I get not falling for the Ghana gas blag but to then fall for the Jamaican oil blag seems silly.

Not looking like a good day or precious metals either. JMAX do you think your compass may be off? Maybe think about taking a holiday. Get away from the screens. Decompress and come back a new man/woman. There's a World Cup starting in a few days, but make sure you travel on a plane that has hedged its oil prices.

Scaffman, guilty as charged.

Loon, If you want to work out Tullow's near future you would be best to work out how many oil refineries have shut down outside of the Gulf region. Leading indicator.

Assuming no one is trying to fill up their oil inventories at the moment. Then the buyers of our product are refineries and only refineries. It's not rocket science. At a certain price a refiner will say, "I can't afford that barrel as my customer won't take product off me." At that point Oil prices will top out and slowly (or quickly) fall in prices.

I see no serious discussion on this board, or in the press, about the refiners. It's just people posting war porn and JMAX reliving 2021 to 2025 - the four years when he was right about Tullow. Apologies to Tony and XXNJR who post serious stuff on this board.

Anyway, let's hear JMAX greatest hits from 2022, "Oil take the high road if Y'Oil take the load road"

Well don't tell Trump there is oil in Jamaica. Idiot!

Fewdollorsmore, If you are going to compare to 2021 you are going to have to adjust for all the oil plays they sold.

In 2021 Tullow was still seen as a pan African Oiler which had fallen on hard times. It is now a Ghanaian oiler with a turn around story.

I simplify but I don't think you can compare like for like.

I've not looked into Kalshi but wouldn't that give you a venue and save on lawyers fees?

So how do these bets work?

Lenin, the Treasury normally issues T Bills on Tuesday. It was today instead. The two year seems to be up 0.13%. Not a good sign.

Dan777, if it had been Harry Corbett they would have been out of Iran by now. Go on to 4Chan and search JMAX's page and there you will find out it was actually Terry Scott and June Witfield.

Probably best to ChatGPT the Essay as no one has time to read 100,000 words on how the Carry on films were a 1960 CIA Manchurian candidate project to capture Western Europe attention while Bob Monkehouse cornered the Eurobond market. It was all going perfectly and then they found Oil in Ghana. Dum Dum DAHHHHH.

To quote JMAX. Wake up!

(Per Share, just for clarification. :-) )

JMAX name me a high quality oiler that will outperform TLW from here. You get upside with a high quality oiler but not convexity.

Anton, so TLW share price didn't move because oil rose $5. That's worrying. Sort of implies TLW isn't a play on higher oil.

I get the feeling you're not a win-win type of person.

I get some idea of how TLW is seen by people and in return I give them some idea (probably more than they want) of what I'm thinking.

I have a complex relationship with the book 'The tipping point" but there is some wisdom in crowds. See my earlier point about the price of Oil - 100,000 oil traders can't all be wrong.

JMAX, who's a sulky boy.