Member Info for TDDW

At $60 the shale industry ticked along as an ex-growth industry. When you say Trump won't let that happen. Do you mean he will tweet drill baby drill three times and curse Biden.

He's shown no compunction to make good on his third arrow (3 million barrels a day) and by November he is a lame duck.

I don't have your conviction.

I would say $60 is bad for Saudi and I'm assuming MBS will be around for some time. Would not be surprised if funding found its way to gorilla terrorist organisations in Argentina, Venuzella and Guyana. Been a few centuries since we've had a militant arm of the Catholic church - No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

Actually Oil going to $250 and the Ten year going to 10% might cause a big debt reckoning and a second Brady Bond plan, might actually be very good for poor. We had quite a good developing market boom with the Brady plan. Not so good for us Capitalists (but what would you pay for a better world - I'm intrigued).

I think it's very brave of JMAX to think Oil will fall to $60 and then stay there after a peace deal (would it happen in a week a day). Imagine inflation at 5% which seems quite reasonable. in 14 years $60 becomes $30 real. I assume you must be going short Exon mobile with that prediction.

Well let's see how it plays out. Your $75 prediction is still on but so is $150.

Iran + Oman + Trump Family would probably see us a deal.

JMAX - you give politicians too much credit. They really are not as impressive as you make out. They are just like you and me.

If you could just dig up your post four years ago about how.. "of course Putin will take 4 years and get nowhere in Ukraine because he is secretly working for Goldman's Sac fixed income department". I'm sure it came up in discussion on TLW board so should be easy to find.

Also, who wins the Korean War. North or South. Still waiting for a peace treaty to be signed so it's a war that's ongoing.

well of course when hanibal took those elephants across the alps he was just ****ed off at bank of italy's platinum card.

JMAX - there's a war on. It creates uncertainty. These are people who went to the rights schools, did the right jobs. Played at the right golf courses. They have got to where they are by taking no risks. When TLW hits 50p they will tell themselves that "actually I didn't make a mistake but TLW was too risky at 16p but at 50p they are a bargain". They will probably be buying my shares.

I consider not having a share like TLW in my portfolio very risky. The wrong Tweet or Drone could cause escalation and forget the Straight being closed - permanent damage to oil wells.

It's a story as old as time. If you want to follow them do - as I said, I'm entirely unimpressed.

apparently you can grow bananas in ****stan - had to google that. i don't think you understand ****stan position in the new global order - in this dimension not a banana republic. it's a bit like when europe has a problem. they normally send the dutch (obviously not if europe has a problem in indonesia).

on a side note, i think they were the first country to build a nuclear weapon without building a nuclear supply chain, although they then went and built reactors afterward. not a recommendation to short cameco

There's an entire cottage industry being built on the Gulf war 3 peace deal (Is it on/Isn''t it on). I haven't bothered reading what the investment banks have put out because they are all guessing. I don't want to read a clever piece I want to read a correct piece (or should I say peace)

Only a few in the Trump administration and a few in the Iranian admin know what is going on. Anything you read in the press is at best a trial balloon.

So my thinking is watch Israel. They have in Mossad, a research network that puts all the investment banks to shame. Here's my quandary. Do I take Israel's actions in Tyre as the last chance for several months to perform war crimes or have the peace talks stalled and they can go back to invading Lebanon (sorry looking for weapons of mass destructions - what has Lebanon got to do with Iran, reallllly)

Hmmmmm

It shows how poor most managers are at understanding the market. I would hope they understood their business. You jump to too many simple conclusions in a complex world JMAX.

TLW isn't the only oil company where the management is not taking up the opportunity - a lot of herd thinking.

CoVid was your text book case. The amount of medical device companies and drug development companies where management could have brought into the the 2020 crash and sell out in 2021 for silly profits. No idea.

Hope is buying airline stocks. Reality is oil prices expectations are heading higher and TLW management will be buying these shares at prices higher than the current 15-18p range. Probably 40p. Not a very aggressive prediction.

Anyways, Gold and Silver seem a bit lack lustre considering oil decline. If they don't rally that's going to be interesting. A fall below 72 might be pointing to manufacturing weakness in China.

I have to agree with JMAX. Even if you are underwhelmed by the company, with Oil above $90 this companies share price should hum - this is a no brainer.

What I see is a CFO who has the opportunity to make some real money and arguabally do the right thing and he thumbled it big time. I'm not angry I just think he has not street smarts. When TLW has refinanced its debt hopefully we can upgrade on the mediocrity (assuming he doesn't buy more in the coming weeks).

I will feel such a little %@||: if I find out he's spent several hundred thousand pounds giving to a Ghanian orphanage and that is why he didn't buy Tullow

My stock, if you like, is buying burnt out companies. Let's call it Fallen Angel Investing.

There is some academic evidence that clustered buying by directors is indicative of share price rally. My experience is that any management that gets a company into problems are often not the best traders and can't be used as entry and exit trades - so I'm neither excited or worried. By the time directors put their head above the parapet much of the move has happened. Just personal anecdotal experience not statically proven.

In saying that, I think Roald Goethe is not an idiot, so I would be interested to see if he adds to his position. Or more interestingly sell his senior notes and buy shares. I can dream

Nothing says "this year's ISA allowance" than buying £19,500 of a share.

Well I suppose buying exactly 20k

Was that Anton's very first post of after several months of back and forward. You do seem quite adept at getting into peoples heads. Some might say you even quite enjoy it? And Anton I don't get the vibe you have learnt anything from the interaction?

Anyway, I'm poking my nose where it does not belong. Just we often have more in common that we have differences.

I couldn't take the first article seriously when it caveat'd with "Tungsten Shortage" - what, you been talking to Charlie. Shows it doesn't really understand the business and then giving 68 p as a downside scenario?

One stupid tweet and we could be at World War III, and they can't even imagine HDD falling below current market price. I like HDD but that seems a little silly. Because of MIFID II a company this size cannot get proper coverage. Although that's also why you can get such bargains

How have you both got into this position guys. It's like being back at school.

Both of you are trapped in your ego's and won't back down. And the Irony of Irony... on a share board fixated with Trump who happen also to be trapped and unable to back down. (Do the greeks call that pathos or just straight karma)

Imagine how much time you could have saved if one of you had just apologised.

It's not the shorter or manipulators. It's just the dumb money overhang. Just sit and wait and watch it work its ways through over the next few weeks. It's a lovely day. Grab a book and go and read it in the sun.

I don't think anyone has the balance sheet to go short Oil in quantity - one Tweet and this baby can move 30 dollars up. let's just say, if you try to corner this market, IEA data might fall on your competitors desk allowing them to take you to the wood chipper. Who knows?

Why not just sell out of the money puts and out of the money calls according to what ever corridor Scott Bessant has told you might be wise and let them expire. Trump just has to keep the market within the corridor ($90 to $110) and so it goes on. It must be driving the Iranian's nuts. Every Iranian oil analyst saying oil should be at $150 by now.

Bugsy911, Its a bank holiday in America. Don't confuse a lack of liquidity with direction. If you want to move a market do it when everyone is at the beach.

Kiwitwo - The real match to watch will be the runners up (America vs Iran).

But no going on Kalshi and front running. As a lizard person, I know where you live.