Member Info for TDDW

Warwickwilliam, Let's hope they aren't playing the other side of the Bessant's Treasury positions. Now that would be funny.

Surprised they didn't go for 27,000,000. Which would be roughly Helikon Investments Limited's short position.

Looking at the share price, I can't help but think collars and lifting are beating RC not shifting.

And imagine what would happen when they do buy! The business case for TLW is oil prices are going up and I'm not sure RC has insider information on what Trump is thinking.

If Insiders don't have insider info should that stop you buying - while they feel paralysed? Not like they have sold either.

JMAX is the third or fourth most accurate poster on this board. He deserves respect.

I agree. The balance only occurred when I added my view to your view. You see we have so much common ground

Before I carry on. You are not a sun worshiper and I'm about to offend a religious conviction because I'm not sure the significance of a 52 week high is. I feel like you are constraining yourself into artificial limitations.

As long as I'm making more money than I brought the share for I'm happy. I'm not a farmer so 52 weeks is a bit arbitrary. Where as November was the month I brought Tullow. I quite like repeating that fact because I'm pompous - but I did buy in November. Not quite the bottom but very close

Since November Oil has gone up 73% and Tullow is just under 500%. I think you are being a bit picky JMAX.

Sigh, well put a reminder in your phone for 18 month time to check the supply of Tungsten. Suspect the price will have collapsed. I'm a big holder of GMET so I'm interested. I'm not as confident Critical minerals will have collapsed but they may have.

Then the most valuable thing you can do is go back to chat gp and ask it why it got its prediction wrong. Did it tell you to buy or sell HDD

Resurrecting a Tungsten supply chain is not hard. Not all critical minerals are the same.

Get in a car and drive up to Hemerdon Tungsten mine.

Stockbuster - so if TLW hit 50p in Q2 2027 you would be like - Blady Tony and his 1 boat every 13.5 days? Seems a little harsh.

If they are down 95% they should talk to a tax consultant!

Also ... what does that sentence even mean "Some are down more than 95%, so it is easier for them to lend to shorters".

Are you saying that the borrow rate is set at the original M2M and does not shrink as the share price falls. If Sam got that gig then yeah why not, although any shorter who signs up for that isn't going to stay in business very long.

People need a villain. Shorters are far more interesting target than the slow grind of a simple business selling oil at a high price and paying off debt that looked impossible to pay off.

Also you have to take the mark to market move in the Bonds which clearly shows the enterprise value is moving up.

TLW has nearly 5x'd from its November bottom [ :-) ]. If the bonds had stayed where they were, but share price moons, then that would have been a sign that the share price was being manipulated. What we are seeing is a company slowly working through its debt pile. Not out of the woods yet but clearly hearing Skylarks.

Anton, if JMAX is prepared to share his trading history then we can put to bed whether or not he was short TLW all this time.

Surely that's worth ponying up some money to find out, one way or another (to quote blondie)

Not sure what is more moralistic than a West African oil company studious keeping the lights on in Europe and Asia while feeding the tax coffers or its government at a time of panic. Seems a bit unfair to project Trumps actions onto Tullow, but whatever.

I agree with Aclay47. If you believe Oil is structurally underpriced and new supply is constrained you can get to a position where Tullow is a good investment. Gulf War III is just an accelerant that may go horribly wrong the longer it goes.

Rogthegamer, This is going to blow your mind. That is a war on that is why GKP has shut down.

If they open up I would expect a few cheap drones to fly their way and shut it down permanently.

GKP doesn't have Trumps ear so it is better not to antagonise its psychopathic neighbours. If you don't understand the relationship between Iran, Iraq and the Kurds you should not invest in GKP. Invest in Shell or BP

I've been bribing Gemini to say $142 so I win that bet. This is my noble peace prize.

Summary of what I just said.

We watch the Spot price. And we get excited by the spot price. You can have air pockets in the spot price.

Oil companies are priced on their future cash flows and so the Oil future curve is more important than the spot price when valuing TLW. No the difference.

Great article.

---------------

If you are an oil refinery you're the first person in the chain to see the price spike - although you can typically pass some of that through to the next person in the chain (but your margins are squeezed first, because of various off take agreements).

However you know one day that the price will top out and start going down, at which time your margins increase beautifully - Hoorah.

So why not just, not partake in the up and, wait for the down. Well you can't turn one of these Oil cities off (They takes months to boot back up - and exactly at the time you are making the best margins)

So global Refiners are playing chicken with each other. You want one of your competitors to call chicken first. The more of your competitors you can noble for a few months the more windfall profits you make at their expense. So that is why most refiners are probably running at 60% (I've not checked the figures as the economics are so powerful)

So at some price (probably $230 dollars a barrel - the small refiners will have to call it quits. I can't afford it). At which point "SHORT TERM DEMAND DESTRUCTION" happens - ouch.

But wait! If lots of Marginal buyers suddenly disappear won't the oil refineries left have a lot of pricing power. Well yes that is what I have just said. And so as strange as this might seem. As soon as we see $230 we might see $75 the next day. But remember this is Crude not Product price.

So you may be reading about Crude at 75 while petrol is £10 or £15 a gallon and plastic bags are more expensive than leather bags.

Be warned. When this happens, there might be one shipment of Tullow that is uninspiring (lets say $80 dollars) then everyone sells off, forgetting that in six to eight weeks all the refiners will be back and they will be running at 100% not 60%, And tullow are back to $100 dollars a shipment

Beware the bull whip effect!!! You may sell too early

N.B. Chinese teapot refineries, in theory, should collapse first but I think Xi would see this as an opportunity to inflict industrial pain on South America and Europe. Due to the strategic value of oil refineries I expect governments to step in and buy oil for them so they can keep going.

Sadly not even Second best.

1 -Tonybb3

2 - xxnjr

3 - anton

4 - JMAX