Member Info for TDDW

Talking for the Lizard People. Can I say we have nothing to do with Trump. That's all you, we exert mass control via VAR only.

You think people are loosing their heads now. Just wait until the World Cup and Scotland beating Spain in the finals on penalties.

The video starts with "this is the worst thing that happens in modern history". Well I guess my Grandparents were lucky. All they had to deal with was Hitler and the Luffwaffal.

We have to deal with American's complaining about 5 dollar oil. Pity us all.

PS, you can buy Tungsten cubes. Do not come to me in 2 years time whining that the Tungsten price has collapsed and you have lost your shirt. This is a story as old as Time.

TDDW, here's AI's distillation. DDW, here's AI's distillation. All the experts I've read, and provided links to, say similar. If you know better, fine: but it's you v them, not you v me.

My response Post 1

Well I research a lot of companies and I can see a wave of Tungsten coming on the market - I think Chat GP is not being entirely honest with you. I would suggest the smart money has positioned their portfolio in a certain way.

The dumb money is posting very poor and simplistic information on the internet not even addressing the counterfactual. The lack of a counter argument should worry you, it is not a sign you are right just that you have hit an echo chamber.

As I said, if you understood the differences in mining Tungsten, than say mining Terbium , then you would understand why I am not worried about a price spike in Tungsten but I am worried about the Chinese cutting off Terbium

I’ve listed several mines that you can literally read their RNS and that list is not complete. You haven’t because you are lazy. Not because you are right.

I missed GWMO and SML and over 100 others. You have to type 3 or 4 Characters at the top of the screen and there is an entire new world the like of which will blow your mind. But you won’t because you enjoy worrying more than learning. It produces more dopamine

Post 2

When prices go up new sources of the material magically arrive. So Tungsten is used in shell cases. Countries like the old Yugoslavia have stocks of old shells that are not economic to recycle and would be dangerous to fire. Google “The Cold War”. It was a big deal in its time. At a certain point people invest bringing down the price of recycling old munitions for scrap. And so the cycle goes on. French Farmers could dig up their fields for scrap tin and tungsten at a certain price

When these bubbles occur these little details get forgotten. They have to be forgotten or you wouldn’t get a sucker buying at the top.

But yes, if the world blocked the trade of Tungsten it would be bad for HDD. So as I have spent much of my Bank holiday teaching the basics of investing in commodities. You can tell me what share should I invest in if Tungsten is banned. I’ll give you a clue

- All Heavy industry stops in 3 months

- All Mines grind to a halt

- All new Oil wells including Fracking have to stop

- Nuclear power plants can’t be constructued

- Weapons manufactures are out of a job

- Airlines will not be able to maintain their Planes

- If you are in the building industry you need to swap your electric drills for Hand drills

- f you are a farmer and your Diesel Engine breaks you won’t be able to get another one.

Why would you even be checking the price of HDD in that situation? You would be checking your cupboards for cans of beans and toilet roll

The mine Tungsten West in Cornwall would be worth more than the entire London borough of Chelsea. Bankers would be sifting the steams for tungsten nuggets around Tungsten West. My drill bits and saws would be worth serious money on EBAY.

Https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/tungsten-ore-price-index/

Although Tungsten prices are falling like a... wet a Tungsten Stone. Expect it to trend up toward November for the next Trump visit

Champagnecharlie, If you don't think I'm well aware of China's current strategy as a holder of Guardian Metal (I've actually made more money on GMET than HDD!!!!!).

My cynicsm comes from years of seeing commodities shooting up and then shooting down. Did I tell you I brought some sugar futures. Do you want to know why.

Anyway, I wonder at what price of sugar it will be too expensive for the engineers to have sugar in their tea. At that point I guess they will go on strike and HDD share price will crash. Bit of an edge risk, so less spend a sunny bank holiday thinking about it. Seems like a good use of everyone's time.

I'm out in the garden with an angle grinder doing some pointing. Did you know my angle grinder has Tungsten Carbide in it. I'm probably rich and don't even know it.

Bonker99, Warren Buffet has a lot of cash. Just saying.

I'll read your article if you read a few books on Tungsten mining. It might give you other avenues to invest. Can I recommend a day trip to Tungsten West. Didn't learn anything but I did enjoy walking around the region. Can't go wrong with a cream tea - unless you lactose intolerant.

PPS, thanks for reminding me not to boast - can't think of anyone on this board who is better placed to warn us of the dangers of conceit.

Reckless gamblers go bankrupt. If you sit down and read books on finance (proper mathematical books, not stories about warren buffet) you will understand diversification and how you can hold something that looks bankrupt and actually reduce the risk in your portfolio. Small amount of Tullow has allowed me to hold big amounts of other shares without worrying too much about Trump.

FRES had some serious risk around the Mexico government which have not manifested (so far). You may have been gambling more than you realise. I have to admit I almost brought Fres but didn't quite get to a bargain basement valuation. I like my burnt out wrecks

PS, you still haven't explained your fixation on the 52 year high. So when TLW hits the 52 year high. How much of Tullow are you planning to buy. Or are you just going to ditch the JMAX account and start a new one. JMIN, not touching Tullow because it's 7x its 52 week low.

I'm genuinely perplexed about your reasoning. Did you have to wait until FRES got to a 52 month high before you brought. Are you a turtle trader? No shame in that, not my style.

JMAX - I was buying at the 52 week lows. Don't remember you posting that it was the best time in 20 years to buy Tullow.

I still don't understand why you are fixated on the 52 week high. This is a bet on oil staying above $90 dollars for an extended period of time. It's not hard to understand. You don't need to be much of an expert. But it's risky. And holding cash is risky when interest rates are approaching 5%.

Give a clear reason why I should care about the 52 week high. Far more interested in the future oil price than Tullow's historical price.

Ok I'll take the other side of the argument. Why would anyone short Tullow.

Let's say you really really like KOS management. But you worry that Trump will TACO. You still think KOS will run their business better than everyone else but the share price will go down due to oil price. [I'm not saying this will happen I'm just saying if you think this is how you should express your thinking in the market like an adult]

So you go long 1 million KOS but you hedge the oil risk. You can hedge the risk one of two ways.

1 - short oil

2- short similar oil company

If there is one thing the last few weeks should have shown you is that oil price on the future market plays no resemblance to the oil price KOS and TLW get, when they lift a cargo. Therefore oil in this market is a poor hedge.(at this moment in time)

Well why not go short TLW. Remember your bet is a relative bet. You think what ever happens, oil goes up or oil goes down, that KOS management will handle it better.

Now personally I would go the other way, long TLW short KOS, but not due to the management but the closing of the two companies credit rating. However I can see the other parties point of view.

If you do not understand the logic of this argument (not the same as agreeing with the argument) then you don't know enough about the market. You should get out of the market, do some basic education and once you understand, get back into the market.

This is not Gamestop. You are not going to get a short squeeze on 2% of your stock. All that is going to happen is you will get angry when it doesn't move according to which ever TicToc account you are following, and you will sell just before the share price moons. Probably 7 days after oil falls to $75. And then you will come angrily onto this board saying TLW is rigged. Yes it is rigged. The people who do the work get paid and the lazy fools who don't do the work and try and pump the stock gets fleeced. And worse they get rinsed by JMAX.

I might have been a little harsh yesterday. If Charlie can come to the table with a specific risk (probably a calculation) that proves Tungsten prices will materially impact the business then I'm happy to do further analysis.

The best way to think about Tungsten and Hardide. Imagine you are Rolex and the price of gold goes up. Yes the watch is more expensive but the value of the watch goes up - sales are not impacted. Tungsten is to Hardide what Gold is to Rolex.

Champagnecharlie, could you please provide calculations of how much Tungsten you think HDD is consuming. Can you explain why the board has not flagged this as a material risk factor - i.e. explain why they have not complied with their legal obligations to warn shareholders of risks.

You are NOT being accused of scare mongering. You are being accused of not doing your homework.

If you want to turn this into a Tungsten board, I'm more than happy to talk Tungsten, as I have a big position in GMET. It will however poison the well for anyone who wants to talk about HDD. I also notice the price of sugar went down today. It also has very little to do with HDD but I own sugar as well.

It's good to research but it is also good to stop and think about your research.... If Tungsten gets so expensive or scarce that Hardide cannot afford their allocation then no new planes will be built, no new Oil wells will be built etc. (because Tungsten is absolutely vital in manufacturing all these products, you can only replace Tungsten with Diamonds and then you would need to build a entire new infrastructure).

In that alternate world you would want Hardide to maintain your current infrastructure - as you are not getting any new stuff until supplies of Tungsten gets restore - so the second order impact would be fantastic for HDD - we would get given the tungsten. That won't happen but it should give you some idea why it won't happen.

In World War Two the UK entered the war paying £150 a ton and by the end of the war was paying £6000 a ton. Spoiler alert. We were producing more tanks and planes by the end of the war despite the increase in price. prices for things like Tungsten and Platinum can rocket because they are such a small component of the overall cost, that makes them cost insensitive.

If energy prices rocket then HDD might be in trouble. That is a valid thing to discuss, again I'm not worried by energy but it is a valid concern.

Imagine if Trump is the good guy and he stops the Taiwan from invasion. Should Norway give Trump the Nobel prize. Discuss or Disgust

Anton, so are you saying you think Trump is going to chicken out (TACO)

What do you think that would do the oil price!

When Biden chicken'd out of Afghanistan everyone had forgotten about it in six weeks - as a benchmark. The American voter is easily distracted.

Just because Trump isn't the sharpest tool in the box I don't think you should assume his administration isn't a little sharper.

According to Rory Johnston (oil analyst) China has been drawing down its oil inventory the last few weeks. Considing Xi has stated he wanted reunification with Taiwan by 2027. I think we can safely say that (at the rate China is depleting it's reserves) that reunification can not involve

- major military conflict depleting China oil reserves further

- Berlin Blockade style conflict as China will run out of oil before allies.

Something to think about!!! If the aim is to hobble China then we need another few months, so you might want to adjust your portfolio accordingly. I would say Tullow is a hold.

Jmidland, have you worked out how much tungsten they consume a year. You seem very concerned by this one dimension.

In the airline industry there is an awful lot of drilling and cutting to make a plane - titanium is different to mill than steel and wears out drill bits faster(ish). This is going to blow your mind but although drills/blades are Tungsten Carbide. I don't think anyone has been complaining about the price of Tungsten on this quarter calls.

Jet fuel yes but Tungsten no.

This post is already too long however..... Some simple facts that you can go away and check for yourself.

Tungsten isn't scarce

Tungsten isn't particularly found in China (It occurs in many places including ENGLAND)

China has no competitive advantage in mining Tungsten apart from cost (This is not rare earth metals)

If China keeps the Tungsten price high for much longer, even Racheal Reave will have the sense to open up Tungsten mines that were shut in the 1990

At which point China will have to crash the market and bankrupt the mines - see ticker TUN and the years 2016-2019 (spoiler alert Tungsten West went bankrupt as the price of Tungsten fell)

- companies that are looking to open tungsten mines

- GMET

- SML

- TUN

- KEN

This list is not an exhaustive list and is only the LSE (not American Market, not Canadian, not Australian, Not South African).

Then you have mines that can add circuits to their current mining operation to extract Tungsten. Small capital cost up front, although volumes will be relatively less

If that doesn't satisfy you then Email Hardide and try and get them to add it as a Material Risk Factor. I think they will tell you it's not a Material Risk Factor!!!!

I don't mind you worrying about the price of Tungsten but I would like to say. "It does not worry me one jot"

You will find millions of article on the internet saying Tungsten has gone up in price - they add no value. Soon you will find million of articles on the intenet saying Tungsten has gone down - they are equally valuable. Before you start posting them could I suggest you go to a library and read up on Tungsten. Knowledge is a wonderful calmer.

Rivaldo,

HDD has a chicken and egg problem. It's a small company interfacing with large customers. I'm not saying they are in negotiations with Boeing but imagine you were Boeing. The purchase manager for Boeing is going to have all sorts of concerns looking at a small company like HDD. Can they even afford all the software systems we will expect them to install to be a trusted partner. But if the engineer likes the technology enough????

Anyway. If it can get over that hump its disadvantage becomes a MOAT. The share price going up actually reflexively helps with negotiations with large customers. If it got to a market cap of 100 million it would find selling its services easier, exactly same services and costs. If it raises money at this price it will be an up round rather than a down round (and I would suggest it would be a buying opportunity)? Something to think about.

I've been in at 8p so yep, multi bagger vibe from me.

So 92p would. be the highest price in 10 years. or a 520 week high i you will. One more "new" contract this year and I think you might see that.